monadnocks Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Having had 12 days without power in 2008, I'm really not liking those graphics. All joking aside, what are the realistic chances of that Pivotal Weather forecast coming true? I'm living at the bottom of a hill around 825'. Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 1 minute ago, monadnocks said: Having had 12 days without power in 2008, I'm really not liking those graphics. All joking aside, what are the realistic chances of that Pivotal Weather forecast coming true? I'm living at the bottom of a hill around 825'. Thank you! The biggest question mark is QPF where you are. I’m pretty skeptical you ever go above freezing so it’s a matter of how much liquid equivalent you get. Some guidance is a lot more than others...some models keep the heaviest stuff more toward the south coast of SNE in round two on Thursday night and early Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 1 minute ago, monadnocks said: Having had 12 days without power in 2008, I'm really not liking those graphics. All joking aside, what are the realistic chances of that Pivotal Weather forecast coming true? I'm living at the bottom of a hill around 825'. Thank you! Every set-up is different but definitely take the under on ice total maps as a rule. 2008 and 1998 were special events. That being said, somebody in NE could see .50" of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Every set-up is different but definitely take the under on ice total maps as a rule. 2008 and 1998 were special events. That being said, somebody in NE could see .50" of ice. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said: Every set-up is different but definitely take the under on ice total maps as a rule. 2008 and 1998 were special events. That being said, somebody in NE could see .50" of ice. Yea those aren’t accretion maps but that’s still a major ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Sell, take the under on all numbers I think that's just the liquid equiv of the ZR anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monadnocks Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Thanks @ORH_wxman and @HIPPYVALLEY . I know that over time the amazing snow forecasts turn into meh events and city-scouring winds turn into a windy day. Seat of the pants estimating is one thing. I'm glad to hear that knowledgeable people suggest that some discounting happen. It's that perspective thing - ice can be fun and beautiful in old pictures and a gigantic pain when you're looking at a super busy end of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Just now, dendrite said: I think that's just the liquid equiv of the ZR anyway. ^^^^^^ you 3K seems better defined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: ^^^^^^ you 3K seems better defined That looks like my map. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: ^^^^^^ you 3K seems better defined Of course it’s not done , but these orange areas are the places I would be ready for power issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Just now, dendrite said: I think that's just the liquid equiv of the ZR anyway. The accretion efficiency would prob be like 0.7 on flat surfaces and like 0.4 on radial. So you really want to see liquid equivalent ZR over 2 inches before thinking of 2008-esque impact. Some of the runs are pretty close though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Damn, even a marginally cold antecedent air mass and Quebec high would get the job done for many. Close but no cigar. RT 2 corridor looks good for 3-4" before them rains came. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The accretion efficiency would prob be like 0.7 on flat surfaces and like 0.4 on radial. So you really want to see liquid equivalent ZR over 2 inches before thinking of 2008-esque impact. Some of the runs are pretty close though. East Ageo winds on the nams might save a lot around hours 51 to 54 getting them above freezing before the drain meets heavy qpf again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: East Ageo winds on the nams might save a lot I don’t see ageo east at all. That’s def north ageo...the actual wind might be NE or ENE but the ageo component is north. Heres during the heavy stuff 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 I just SMH on ea GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I don’t see ageo east at all. That’s def north ageo...the actual wind might be NE or ENE but the ageo component is north. Heres during the heavy stuff See my edited post above hour 51 after the initial precip before the heavy there maybe a melt period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: See my edited post above hour 51 after the initial precip before the heavy there maybe a melt period In far SNE there is going to be one............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: In far SNE there is going to be one............. Hope to miss any ice, torch away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Hope to miss any ice, torch away Some welcome it, Been there done that, No thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Have the cold ticks stopped for now maybe the meso low strength and track can influence the cold push and that is something to watch . Seems temps are gonna be caught between 32-34 for most just inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Hope to miss any ice, torch away I agree, hate ice, pretty to look at my too many headaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 43 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Have the cold ticks stopped for now maybe the meso low strength and track can influence the cold push and that is something to watch . Seems temps are gonna be caught between 32-34 for most just inland Seems like it steadied. Now we wait to see if it comes NW or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 WWA here for 1-2" of snow/sleet and some freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Oof at that 00z Euro run. Keeps ramping up QPF. Friday’s wave is real juicy. The mid level frontogenisis should have someone up here just getting destroyed. That run was a healthy 12-18” for a fairly wide swath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Blech. Quick glance looks like euro trended toward gfs aloft...not not much snow here for part deux. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Oof at that 00z Euro run. Keeps ramping up QPF. Friday’s wave is real juicy. The mid level frontogenisis should have someone up here just getting destroyed. That run was a healthy 12-18” for a fairly wide swath. Best was north of you I think. You ping for awhile this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: Best was north of you I think. You ping for awhile this run. Yeah for sure. Ping and freezing rain. Best was Northern Champlain Valley to Southern Quebec flats. That run was like 11-12” of snow on 1.55” water. I’ve got more a QPF fetish than snow total haha. Drop an inch plus frozen and I’ll take it however it comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Certainly going to be a tight gradient with that Friday wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 6 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Hope to miss any ice, torch away Not an older person’s friend so yes,,,,good reason to hope we get no ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Not real excited about nws's 2-7". Feel like we'll end on the lower side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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