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February 5-7 Wintry Mess Potential


weatherwiz
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1 minute ago, monadnocks said:

Having had 12 days without power in 2008, I'm really not liking those graphics. All joking aside, what are the realistic chances of that Pivotal Weather forecast coming true?

I'm living at the bottom of a hill around 825'.

Thank you!

The biggest question mark is QPF where you are. I’m pretty skeptical you ever go above freezing so it’s a matter of how much liquid equivalent you get. Some guidance is a lot more than others...some models keep the heaviest stuff more toward the south coast of SNE in round two on Thursday night and early Friday. 

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1 minute ago, monadnocks said:

Having had 12 days without power in 2008, I'm really not liking those graphics. All joking aside, what are the realistic chances of that Pivotal Weather forecast coming true?

I'm living at the bottom of a hill around 825'.

Thank you!

Every set-up is different but definitely take the under on ice total maps as a rule.  2008 and 1998 were special events.

That being said, somebody in NE could see .50" of ice.

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Thanks @ORH_wxman and @HIPPYVALLEY . I know that over time the amazing snow forecasts turn into meh events and city-scouring winds turn into a windy day. Seat of the pants estimating is one thing. I'm glad to hear that knowledgeable people suggest that some discounting happen. It's that perspective thing - ice can be fun and beautiful in old pictures and a gigantic pain when you're looking at a super busy end of the week.

 

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Just now, dendrite said:

I think that's just the liquid equiv of the ZR anyway.

The accretion efficiency would prob be like 0.7 on flat surfaces and like 0.4 on radial. So you really want to see liquid equivalent ZR over 2 inches before thinking of 2008-esque impact. Some of the runs are pretty close though. 

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The accretion efficiency would prob be like 0.7 on flat surfaces and like 0.4 on radial. So you really want to see liquid equivalent ZR over 2 inches before thinking of 2008-esque impact. Some of the runs are pretty close though. 

East Ageo winds on the nams might save a lot around hours 51 to 54 getting them above freezing before the drain meets heavy qpf again. 

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

East Ageo winds on the nams might save a lot

I don’t see ageo east at all. That’s def north ageo...the actual wind might be NE or ENE but the ageo component is north. 

Heres during the heavy stuff

 

6256071E-BF6C-4386-826D-FBDF2D9C9475.gif

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43 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Have the cold ticks stopped for now 

maybe the meso low strength and track can influence the cold push and that is something to watch . Seems temps are gonna be caught between 32-34 for most just inland 

Seems like it steadied. Now we wait to see if it comes NW or not. 

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Oof at that 00z Euro run.  

Keeps ramping up QPF.  Friday’s wave is real juicy.  

The mid level frontogenisis should have someone up here just getting destroyed.

That run was a healthy 12-18” for a fairly wide swath. 

CB653A57-69FE-4BEA-AAF8-FC989A7503F5.thumb.png.ef4e5096c6ee69dc0f7c13b4a3b462d0.png

Best was north of you I think. You ping for awhile this run. 

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6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Best was north of you I think. You ping for awhile this run. 

Yeah for sure.  Ping and freezing rain.  

Best was Northern Champlain Valley to Southern Quebec flats.  

That run was like 11-12” of snow on 1.55” water.  I’ve got more a QPF fetish than snow total haha.  Drop an inch plus frozen and I’ll take it however it comes.

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