40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah the mesolow aspect of this may not be figured out for a quite a while. IT's so fickle but it would have huge consequences for snesible wx....you get a little cold tuck behind the nose of the mesolow going off Boston and into gulf of Maine and all of the sudden you aren't going to be latently warming...keep that in place for round 2 (which looks like it could be a big QPF producer) and you have legit ice storm concerns. My guess is that stuff will become clearer in the next 24-36 hours....either it will be obvious we don't have the setup for a replenishing dewpoint drain...so we see a slow rise to 33F rain, or this thing shows its hand on being a colder scenario. I would be suprised if round 2 stayed frozen anywhere in sne outside of the death valley CAD spots, like Hippie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I would be suprised if round 2 stayed frozen anywhere in sne outside of the death valley CAD spots, like Hippie Yeah I'd hedge liquid at the moment, but it wouldn't take a large change to completely flip that on its head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I'd hedge liquid at the moment, but it wouldn't take a large change to completely flip that on its head. I'd like to flip this winter on its head. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Is this a situation where the gfs handles ok, I mean we kno it’s not the model for coastal systems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 GFS ripping the primary further west and stronger....this will be a warmer run. Consolidating the energy out west as it ejects...less sheared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 As that Thursday am high slides east and the mid plains high is just beginning to branch out our second system likely cuts, no resistance, doesn’t even have to be “strong” just not sheared and feeble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'd like to flip this winter on its head. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 So..wintry precip is now out for Thursday in SNE. Typical!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Just now, Snowcrazed71 said: So..wintry precip is now out for Thursday in SNE. Typical!! Were on to part 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Pretty warm run on the 12z GFS, Of course its quite cold behind that system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 SNE is on to Cincinnati. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 This winter continues to Chun-Li kick any winter enthusiast in the crotch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 At least it's going the wrong way early. Better than to have it drag out like there's a chance. Maybe after next weekend things will look up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: This winter continues to Chun-Li kick any winter enthusiast in the crotch. It's literally been trolling winter lovers all season and yet ppl keep taking the bait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Nice soaker coming. Should drop Step 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 The 80’s just called. They want their winter back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Nice soaker coming. Should drop Step 3. Might as well seed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Something like the GGEM would be a much bigger problem for icing over the interior. You want to see that mesolow protruding northeast off E MA and into the Gulf of maine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 ^^^ glad we don't live there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 We should be uncomfortably numb at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 I funny ... speak of the devil man. I wrote a bit about that in the other thread re Feb in general...how we've had such difficulty with cold profiling passing over the boundary from mid range into outer short ranges.. . It's f'n bald faced doing it right in front of our eyes again. We're probably going to be 60 F to MHT, NH before this f're finishes in our bums. kidding of course - but there essence of kicking back NW is clearly real. But in a season of being dealt reversals... it would almost be fitting if the seasonal trend was accounted for, THEN have it actually be colder - anything to ruin the fun ahead of time. Hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 A GGEM solution would make for a great two days of kitchen sink weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: We should be uncomfortably numb at this point. I just want a warm and dry Morch at this point. Give me a nice transition into spring. Done with this garbage season. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 1 minute ago, dryslot said: A GGEM solution would make for a great two days of kitchen sink weather. Looks more like toilet bowl weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 1 minute ago, Hoth said: I just want a warm and dry Morch at this point. Give me a nice transition into spring. Done with this garbage season. You just doomed us 'till June with your impudence - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 41 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Were on to part 3 Okay, so this was not for Thursday this was for the Friday wave, correct? Off-topic, but, Sunday looks like we could see us snowstorm, dare I say.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 38 minutes ago, Hazey said: At least it's going the wrong way early. Better than to have it drag out like there's a chance. Maybe after next weekend things will look up. Yeah but I think we’re going to end up with a lot of cloudy days in the 40s with no distinct spring like warm-ups for quite a while. Nobody wants that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 not really an 80s pattern because it hasn't been cold between systems. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 22 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: You just doomed us 'till June with your impudence - Yup, intense -NAO until Independence Day secured. Backdoor fronts rammed down our throats. Boston in the 40s Memorial Day weekend. Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 6 minutes ago, Whineminster said: not really an 80s pattern because it hasn't been cold between systems. Thank goodness cold /dry and mild wet is my least favorite pattern ever I have no use for big cold that doesn’t produce got no issues w 40f highs in early feb if it ain’t snowin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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