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February 5-7 Wintry Mess Potential


weatherwiz
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6 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Will the ice with this be more in the elevations as it was in 2008? That was our first year in Greenfield and I had no problem with getting 33° rain while to Hilltowns lost power for days.

At least as of now thats the way it looks...the max cold layer is around 950-975mb late Thursday/early Friday. That's really the time period to focus on....I think a lot of folks will see some light icing Thursday....but then it slowly warms to 33-34F in spots by the time we see the heavy precip return late Thursday night/early Friday....where does it stay 30-31? Elevations on the east slopes will be last to warm with that flow and sounding look.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

At least as of now thats the way it looks...the max cold layer is around 950-975mb late Thursday/early Friday. That's really the time period to focus on....I think a lot of folks will see some light icing Thursday....but then it slowly warms to 33-34F in spots by the time we see the heavy precip return late Thursday night/early Friday....where does it stay 30-31? Elevations on the east slopes will be last to warm with that flow and sounding look.

Course...this synopsis you've interpreted gets muddled pretty quickly with a Euro-esque meso over the Cape like that -that's a barrier jet incarnate there - 

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Course...this synopsis you've interpreted gets muddled pretty quickly with a Euro-esque meso over the Cape like that -that's a barrier jet incarnate there - 

Yeah obviously the development of any mesolow affects how quickly the drain accelerates from the northeast. In the Dec 2008 storm, a pretty well defined mesolow developed east of MA and into the gulf of Maine late afternoon and early evening of Dec 11. It accelerated the dewpoint drain into N MA and probably sealed the fate of all those lower elevation areas along and north of Rt 2 east of FIT and NW of 495....without that, they may have been more of a 32.5F rainstorm instead of a crippling grid failure type storm at 31F. Or at the very least...maybe more of a marginal ice storm without the heavier accretion rates that the drier air blowing in from the northeast helped enhance.

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah obviously the development of any mesolow affects how quickly the drain accelerates from the northeast. In the Dec 2008 storm, a pretty well defined mesolow developed east of MA and into the gulf of Maine late afternoon and early evening of Dec 11. It accelerated the dewpoint drain into N MA and probably sealed the fate of all those lower elevation areas along and north of Rt 2 east of FIT and NW of 495....without that, they may have been more of a 32.5F rainstorm instead of a crippling grid failure type storm at 31F. Or at the very least...maybe more of a marginal ice storm without the heavier accretion rates that the drier air blowing in from the northeast helped enhance.

How is the EPS relative to OP?

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11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah obviously the development of any mesolow affects how quickly the drain accelerates from the northeast. In the Dec 2008 storm, a pretty well defined mesolow developed east of MA and into the gulf of Maine late afternoon and early evening of Dec 11. It accelerated the dewpoint drain into N MA and probably sealed the fate of all those lower elevation areas along and north of Rt 2 east of FIT and NW of 495....without that, they may have been more of a 32.5F rainstorm instead of a crippling grid failure type storm at 31F. Or at the very least...maybe more of a marginal ice storm without the heavier accretion rates that the drier air blowing in from the northeast helped enhance.

My buddy was living at 825' up just N of rt 2 back then at ground zero and said that half that QPF just came on to fast too even accrete - jeez

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12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

My buddy was living at 825' up just N of rt 2 back then at ground zero and said that half that QPF just came on to fast too even accrete - jeez

That's what happened at my place, that and probably a thinner cold layer.  QPF and surface temps were nearly identical between ORH and my place and we got at most 0.2" accretion.  NOT complaining!!!

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19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

My buddy was living at 825' up just N of rt 2 back then at ground zero and said that half that QPF just came on to fast too even accrete - jeez

Yeah I think the accretion efficiency in that storm was like 0.5 or something...lol. ORH had well over 2 inches of QPF but around an inch of ice or just a bit more (I think I measured like 1.1 radial).

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Snow to sleet to snow for the chickens. I’m hesitant to believe the flip back to pounding snow here after pushing the sleet line well north of me ahead of the final wave. Idk...me thinks it would end up some front end snow, then sleet/ZL, then we pelt at the end and maybe finish with a little snow on top.

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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Early Feb sun angle will be a killer for your 32F rain. That’s why we like our ice storms early. 

The big QPF happens at night at least....but he's still going to have to deal with severe downsloping off the ORH hills which will also block the dewpoint drain.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

The big QPF happens at night at least....but he's still going to have to deal with severe downsloping off the ORH hills which will also block the dewpoint drain.

Yeah it’s just not a great place for siggy ice. Occasional nice little events though. Just nothing that buries the grid.

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The big QPF happens at night at least....but he's still going to have to deal with severe downsloping off the ORH hills which will also block the dewpoint drain.

I think you’ll be incorrect on this not being significant in NE CT hills . We’ll be 30.8-31.8... I think ORH north mainly sleet 

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