ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 6 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Will the ice with this be more in the elevations as it was in 2008? That was our first year in Greenfield and I had no problem with getting 33° rain while to Hilltowns lost power for days. At least as of now thats the way it looks...the max cold layer is around 950-975mb late Thursday/early Friday. That's really the time period to focus on....I think a lot of folks will see some light icing Thursday....but then it slowly warms to 33-34F in spots by the time we see the heavy precip return late Thursday night/early Friday....where does it stay 30-31? Elevations on the east slopes will be last to warm with that flow and sounding look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: At least as of now thats the way it looks...the max cold layer is around 950-975mb late Thursday/early Friday. That's really the time period to focus on....I think a lot of folks will see some light icing Thursday....but then it slowly warms to 33-34F in spots by the time we see the heavy precip return late Thursday night/early Friday....where does it stay 30-31? Elevations on the east slopes will be last to warm with that flow and sounding look. Course...this synopsis you've interpreted gets muddled pretty quickly with a Euro-esque meso over the Cape like that -that's a barrier jet incarnate there - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Course...this synopsis you've interpreted gets muddled pretty quickly with a Euro-esque meso over the Cape like that -that's a barrier jet incarnate there - Yeah obviously the development of any mesolow affects how quickly the drain accelerates from the northeast. In the Dec 2008 storm, a pretty well defined mesolow developed east of MA and into the gulf of Maine late afternoon and early evening of Dec 11. It accelerated the dewpoint drain into N MA and probably sealed the fate of all those lower elevation areas along and north of Rt 2 east of FIT and NW of 495....without that, they may have been more of a 32.5F rainstorm instead of a crippling grid failure type storm at 31F. Or at the very least...maybe more of a marginal ice storm without the heavier accretion rates that the drier air blowing in from the northeast helped enhance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah obviously the development of any mesolow affects how quickly the drain accelerates from the northeast. In the Dec 2008 storm, a pretty well defined mesolow developed east of MA and into the gulf of Maine late afternoon and early evening of Dec 11. It accelerated the dewpoint drain into N MA and probably sealed the fate of all those lower elevation areas along and north of Rt 2 east of FIT and NW of 495....without that, they may have been more of a 32.5F rainstorm instead of a crippling grid failure type storm at 31F. Or at the very least...maybe more of a marginal ice storm without the heavier accretion rates that the drier air blowing in from the northeast helped enhance. How is the EPS relative to OP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah obviously the development of any mesolow affects how quickly the drain accelerates from the northeast. In the Dec 2008 storm, a pretty well defined mesolow developed east of MA and into the gulf of Maine late afternoon and early evening of Dec 11. It accelerated the dewpoint drain into N MA and probably sealed the fate of all those lower elevation areas along and north of Rt 2 east of FIT and NW of 495....without that, they may have been more of a 32.5F rainstorm instead of a crippling grid failure type storm at 31F. Or at the very least...maybe more of a marginal ice storm without the heavier accretion rates that the drier air blowing in from the northeast helped enhance. My buddy was living at 825' up just N of rt 2 back then at ground zero and said that half that QPF just came on to fast too even accrete - jeez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: How is the EPS relative to OP? It came in a bit flatter and colder than 6z EPS. Looks pretty similar to the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: My buddy was living at 825' up just N of rt 2 back then at ground zero and said that half that QPF just came on to fast too even accrete - jeez That's what happened at my place, that and probably a thinner cold layer. QPF and surface temps were nearly identical between ORH and my place and we got at most 0.2" accretion. NOT complaining!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 That's like perfect for crushing ice! wow - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 wait... i f hate ice storms... what the hell am I doin' 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: My buddy was living at 825' up just N of rt 2 back then at ground zero and said that half that QPF just came on to fast too even accrete - jeez Yeah I think the accretion efficiency in that storm was like 0.5 or something...lol. ORH had well over 2 inches of QPF but around an inch of ice or just a bit more (I think I measured like 1.1 radial). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 18z Nam is a couple tics colder up this way, A little zr but 95% is snow based on sounding verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Will .. .get a load of that NAM's 18z low near the Cape. Sorry folks, that's shaving T's off guidance in that set up man - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: 18z Nam is a couple tics colder up this way, A little zr but 95% is snow based on sounding verbatim. The first wave is warm. Cold, wants to flip folks to snow at the end even way down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 5 minutes ago, powderfreak said: The first wave is warm. Cold, wants to flip folks to snow at the end even way down south. First wave looks colder than 12z run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 6 minutes ago, powderfreak said: The first wave is warm. Cold, wants to flip folks to snow at the end even way down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Oh boy! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Snow to sleet to snow for the chickens. I’m hesitant to believe the flip back to pounding snow here after pushing the sleet line well north of me ahead of the final wave. Idk...me thinks it would end up some front end snow, then sleet/ZL, then we pelt at the end and maybe finish with a little snow on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 On a How Screwed Am I in N ORH county at 1000’ 1-10 scale... I going with a 6.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: On a How Screwed Am I in N ORH county at 1000’ 1-10 scale... I going with a 6.5 You’ll be mainly sleet/ snow. Ice is ORHsouth 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFRI Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Glad there's no ice in RI. Can't imagine anyone would wish for that sh..it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: You’ll be mainly sleet/ snow. Ice is ORHsouth What a wishcaster. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You’ll be mainly sleet/ snow. Ice is ORHsouth Early Feb sun angle will be a killer for your 32F rain. That’s why we like our ice storms early. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, DFRI said: Glad there's no ice in RI. Can't imagine anyone would wish for that sh..it Depends where in RI, I could see hills of Burriville getting some glaze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What a wishcaster. That’s the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Early Feb sun angle will be a killer for your 32F rain. That’s why we like our ice storms early. The big QPF happens at night at least....but he's still going to have to deal with severe downsloping off the ORH hills which will also block the dewpoint drain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: The big QPF happens at night at least....but he's still going to have to deal with severe downsloping off the ORH hills which will also block the dewpoint drain. Yeah it’s just not a great place for siggy ice. Occasional nice little events though. Just nothing that buries the grid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The big QPF happens at night at least....but he's still going to have to deal with severe downsloping off the ORH hills which will also block the dewpoint drain. In 08 it only made it to N Oxford Ma, just south on Rt 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The big QPF happens at night at least....but he's still going to have to deal with severe downsloping off the ORH hills which will also block the dewpoint drain. I think you’ll be incorrect on this not being significant in NE CT hills . We’ll be 30.8-31.8... I think ORH north mainly sleet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: I think you’ll be incorrect on this not being significant in NE CT hills . We’ll be 30.8-31.8... I think ORH north mainly sleet Probably not cold enough to get it done. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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