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February 5-7 Wintry Mess Potential


weatherwiz
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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m don’t care about snow. I care about surface temps and ice. South of 90 ain’t getting snow

Listen... As cool as it sounds, it can be crippling to many people. To wish for and need it to be an Ice Storm is immature and irresponsible. Maybe after a bunch of trees and limbs falls onto your home....forcing you to move out because its beyond repair might make you feel differently. A light to moderate ice storm could be manageable ...but crippling.... Stupid. Keep it away from me please.

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12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I mean look at this damming nose in the GEPs !

 

 

Euro ensembles are similar...only question left is does it trend back warmer? Because I agree if it doesn't and plays out like that, then it's probably some serious levels of icing that hasn't been seen since 2008.

 

Feb4_12zEPS60.png

Feb4_12zEPS66.png

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro ensembles are similar...only question left is does it trend back warmer? Because I agree if it doesn't and plays out like that, then it's probably some serious levels of icing that hasn't been seen since 2008.

 

Feb4_12zEPS60.png

Feb4_12zEPS66.png

If it does play out just like 2008, then Kev will need a straight jacket.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If it does play out just like 2008, then Kev will need a straight jacket.

Lol...yeah he would.

There's reasons to believe this would be less than 2008, even if that look verified. QPF has generally been a bit lower and the high isn't initially in as good a spot as 2008...so I wonder if we get too much latent heating before the drain can really get going. The antecedent airmass is better than 2008 though, so that could easily offset it and "buy some time" before the drain really kicks in.

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lol...yeah he would.

There's reasons to believe this would be less than 2008, even if that look verified. QPF has generally been a bit lower and the high isn't initially in as good a spot as 2008...so I wonder if we get too much latent heating before the drain can really get going. The antecedent airmass is better than 2008 though, so that could easily offset it and "buy some time" before the drain really kicks in.

So are you saying nothing NE CT hills?

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7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If it does play out just like 2008, then Kev will need a straight jacket.

The best imaginable solution would be to have 2" of accretion stop at his grid trunk, and it just be 32.1 liquid over the powerlines from his region S.. Oh, said trunk ends across the street. And, in the middle of battery acid in the belly envy he hasn't experienced since his soul mate went down on his greatest enemy, his boss calls him demanding he turn in that sale report at that job he hates...  

 

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7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So are you saying nothing NE CT hills?

Youll def get some on Thursday morning after the snow/sleet thump....but the question is after that when the heavy stuff hits late Thu night and early Friday....you need an earlier drain for that I think otherwise its 34F rain.

It's possible, but right now it would probably be like ORH over to 495 belt/Tip's region and up toward ASH. That could def change though wither another tick flatter.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Youll def get some on Thursday morning after the snow/sleet thump....but the question is after that when the heavy stuff hits late Thu night and early Friday....you need an earlier drain for that I think otherwise its 34F rain.

It's possible, but right now it would probably be like ORH over to 495 belt/Tip's region and up toward ASH. That could def change though wither another tick flatter.

I think I'm okay right now, but one more tic and I'm porked.

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5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Not that it matters, they are both in the same shitty class, ha.  

But those Ensembles were much flatter than the OP, so that’s a good sign for colder/south appeal.

I'm actually a little surprised by this SE adjusting stuff... 

This is pretty much the opposite of the seasonal trend to go the other direction, having done so in this same time range when said trend has usually playout and left every hold a big bag-o wtf -.   

fascinating - not sure if it's time to bite, tho.   In fact, my advice would be to chalk this up as some decent modeling cinema, only ...for now, and be grateful for it, because if we didn't have this our beloved weather hobby would be about as uninspired as gay unic at lesbian convention. 

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I'm actually a little surprised by this SE adjusting stuff... 

This is pretty much the opposite of the seasonal trend to go the other direction, having done so in this same time range.   

fascinating - not sure if it's time to bite, tho.   In fact, my advice would be to chalk this up as some decent modeling cinema and be grateful for it, because if we didn't have this our beloved weather hobby would be about as uninspired as gay unic at lesbian convention. 

I have mentioned that a tic was possible due to your gradient...that said, the ice mongers can't afford to give any of said trend back-

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