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February 5-7 Wintry Mess Potential


weatherwiz
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this is angle of ascent -related duration in this run.  The first wave is more than less melding into the 2nd one, to just make it a protract deal ..but because the two are like 1,200 naut miles of total ENE-WSW flow space the whole package takes 30 hours to get thru.  

that's an awful long time to 29.6 F moderate super cooled mist in rain drops...   I can already hear the timber mortars and the sounds of distant chainsaws. 

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1 minute ago, Whineminster said:

We just had a bad ice storm 11 years ago, the models should know about history and know that it's not happening again for at least another 50 years I'd say.  

Funning or not... actually when the climate is fluxing those rules fly out the door. There's dubious linear dependency at best with climate usage like that. 

Sides, models don't do climate in their runs -

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Easy to visualize a 60 hour CF type gradient cutting from maybe BED or just west of there, to NW RI ... probably even for higher res models, that's -2 correction west of that line in that interior heat sink where NNE flow gets buried ... That kind of sets up the next slug to be a problem. 

I think it was Will and I mentioning yesterday that this would be a now-cast nightmare for that sort of shit. 

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That's one of the better ice-storm sigs I've seen on a guidance in a long while.  Even for the Euro...look at 72 hours and it has a meso low over the Cape that's buckin' for the same strength as the main circulation that is moving S of NYC ? 

I've never heard of a warm solution below 4K with synoptic features like that.  It'll come down to dp insert and the actually thermal profile of the drain column...which if it is 33 ...it's 33... but if it's 28...it's going to be 28 is all - sorry.  Unless this run is wrong with those features/evolution between 48-90 hours.. 

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8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why aren’t you adjusting for the continued cold trends!? There’s all kinds of things to do than spit out verbatim what a map says 

I don't think these colder trends will be enough to cool he layer above 850 enough to change the precipitation type for most S of I-90.  Those closer to the NH border it may.

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