Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

February 5-7 Wintry Mess Potential


weatherwiz
 Share

Recommended Posts

51 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s a nice s/w tightening up. Actually almost two of them, for Friday. I kind of like seeing that. It’s not doing it further west on the nam, which is good. 

Not to jolt hopes with insinuation ... but, usually the NAM is too far NW - telling?  

...haha, considering the NAM's the story teller, notwithstanding -

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There's evidence in that 12Z ICON solution of hydrostatic forcing - i.e., 'mid level magic.  

Helluva burst of snow for N-central Mass/ southern VT/NH ..western zones though brief 78-84 hrs, but deep-ish sfc pressure carving through the PVD corridor while that happens, in total these are adjustments/new comparing prior runs. 

I'm noticing that the last three cycles of the NAM and this model all ticked SE by small measures.   

These guidance types are of course low in confidence at this range, however,  -

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah..I mentioned this above wrt to the whimsy ICON ... but I suspect there is an emergent problem with the models in their handling such extraordinarily powerful mid level jet mechanics racing in pithy mass from the TV to SE of the Cape and NS ..That region is hosting wide, long 120+ to 145 kt wind max and the places the entire region from WV to EEN, NH in a precarious kind of frontogenic look for one...but it seems there is a giant ..though capped potential for Q-G forcing ..which in lay terms translates to upper vertical motion. It's almost like there is a tendency for leak and when that does the lift goes nuts ( metaphor )

Some of that may be collocated with a surface reflection/low and that might cause a faux depth ... The ICON has a 983 mb low over PVD out of no-where, when the previous panel just 6 hours earlier was much shallower in an interverted... Now the GFS.  The Euro is going to be fascinating I feel because this is a unique challenge for it's smoothing algorithms, where it cuts down on noise effecting outcomes and so forth. 

YOu know plus as Scott was saying ... and we discussed yesterday, this is a now-cast nightmare because while all that is taking place above 3K elevation... this region down here has it's own cold loading headaches and uncertainties to contend with 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

12z GEM colder too compared to 00z.

You know ..it's interesting, because this tendency to correct NW turning the page from mid range into short terms seems to be failing on this cycle ...which could arguably have zygote heredity in those 18z peripheral model types from late yesterday.   

We'll see...  We're almost at a proper 'put up or shut up' scorched Earth mode tho - one of these suckers needs to work out... This is just taking mid-range verification to the wood shed this year.  wow. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...