Typhoon Tip Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That was tossed when it came out. Lol. No other model supported it. The main interest for me on this is whether siggy icing happens inland. The snow aspect is garbage. Front end thump looks weak sauce. Prob sleet contaminated anyway. I was just going to commiserate how you can almost sense the models are trying to weasel out of doing even that much - I mean...I don't care much for icing above general aesthetic nature of the aftermath under blue sky and sun prism romanticism and shit but ... I could almost see us getting 1.2" of snow, a lull with meaningless freezing drizzle, then ...nothing happens when the low opens up a faux warm sector over a cold low level that is an odd situation with no lift over top. and we get nothing... Notice the 54 hour insult to injury...with wind gusts to 48 mph imparting a flash freeze and one snow flake per minute under street lamps. that's how your run a sore-butting - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Yup...welcome to N. Phillie folks... This entire systemic evolution is N. Phillie climo incarnate and is their pain - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: I was just going to commiserate how you can almost sense the models are trying to weasel out of doing even that much - I mean...I don't care much for icing above general aesthetic nature of the aftermath under blue sky and sun prism romanticism and shit but ... I could almost see us getting 1.2" of snow, a lull with meaningless freezing drizzle, then ...nothing happens when the low opens up a faux warm sector over a cold low level that is a odd situation with no lift over top. and we get nothing... Notice the 54 hour insult to injury...with wind gusts to 48 mph imparting a flash freeze and one snow flake per minute under street lamps. that's how your run a sore-butting - Yeah I could see us getting dryslotted for like 18 straight hours while freezing drizzle over the interior and that really heavy qpf stays around the south coast of SNE. That’s been a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The Friday stuff has a PF to Rangeley look when examining the midlevels. It’s trying to collapse SE pretty fast late in the game but I think by the time it does it’s mostly scraps. Maybe a few inches in your ‘hood at the end of it can do it quick enough. A few crumbs on that run, I don't need a coastal hugger track here, It was better when it was off of ACK in the eastern GOM, I'm not going to sweat the Nam were still 36hrs+ out for wave 2 and it has moved around some, But im heading to that Rangeley area Saturday so its all good if they get slammed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 I questioned yesterday if anyone thought if some of the moisture would be robbed by convection to the south... that happened earlier in the season I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Meanwhile, You have the 3k Nam chasing convection out to the east well offshore.......lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 I could see Greenfield getting a quick 3-4” thump actually. Dynamics here don’t look terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 ran straight outa ct blizz's basement: https://vortex.plymouth.edu/WRF/wrf_over_d3_Large.html this model is always entertaining when there is a cold tuck in play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Looks like what makes sense in this setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 At this point I have no idea where I stand for school and work schedules etc. Pretty much planning on a two hour school delay but need to account for maybe taking a day off from work if I wake up and there was a snow blitz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Looks like what makes sense in this setup maybe if you universally add 3-5 degrees everywhere .. We can be sure there will be a cold tuck but TBD what type of T/TD we are advecting in from SE NH / SW ME Thur evening and Night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: At this point I have no idea where I stand for school and work schedules etc. Pretty much planning on a two hour school delay but need to account for maybe taking a day off from work if I wake up and there was a snow blitz. Yup 3 districts I need to think about for myself, my wife, and daughter. Hopefully we all have the same thing, whatever the outcome. I did postpone ski club due to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 2 footer for PF Greens is a lock 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 N. Maine in a winter Storm Warning for 12-20” lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow and mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 10 to 18 inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: N. Maine in a winter Storm Warning for 12-20” lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 The euro was real close to pinging even near Stowe. Something to watch, but not like it will knock accumulations back much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: N. Maine in a winter Storm Warning for 12-20” lol. Adding up the 4 periods Thursday daytime thru Fri night, both Fort Kent and CAR show 14-26", about 3/4 coming Fri/Fri night. Farther south, GYX puts my zone at 6-9 with the next zone north 9-16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The euro was real close to pinging even near Stowe. Something to watch, but not like it will knock accumulations back much. Oh we definitely ping. Freezing drizzle and ZR too. It’s real dry in the snow growth zone tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night.... I could see .25-.5” QPF as mix here on the edge of the mid level dry slot. I bet it mixes to Canada in light returns. I think we get 12 hours of mixed, pellets, grains, ZR, etc between the better periods of lift. The craziest part is even taking that out the models have another 1-1.5” QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Just now, powderfreak said: Oh we definitely ping. Freezing drizzle and ZR too. It’s real dry in the snow growth zone tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night.... I could see .25-.5” QPF as mix here on the edge of the mid level dry slot. The craziest part is even taking that out the models have another 1-1.5” QPF. Soundings were epic Friday aftn there. Some of the models had intense forcing with the low in CT. In fact almost a MAUL look there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Soundings were epic Friday aftn there. Some of the models had intense forcing with the low in CT. In fact almost a MAUL look there. Yeah that’s the time to make hay. I think in a general sense it’s 2-4” tomorrow morning, then 12 hours of light mixed precip, followed by 6-12” on Friday....mainly in like 6 hours. Call it 8-16” with some mix sandwiched in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 9 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Oh we definitely ping. Freezing drizzle and ZR too. It’s real dry in the snow growth zone tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night.... I could see .25-.5” QPF as mix here on the edge of the mid level dry slot. I bet it mixes to Canada in light returns. I think we get 12 hours of mixed, pellets, grains, ZR, etc between the better periods of lift. The craziest part is even taking that out the models have another 1-1.5” QPF. Hard sell on .50” of non snow for you. Enjoy your 12+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 GFS bringing 50F to MHT. The rest of us are living in a tropical paradise. That would be funny, but unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Lots of downers in here Blizz what’s going on in here , nobody likes an icer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 nice QPF distribution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 21 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Hard sell on .50” of non snow for you. Enjoy your 12+ Hopefully! You know the drill though, gotta think of all scenarios. The 18z GFS had 0.5” QPF as mixed and 1.5” as snow... total of 2.0” QPF. So we could see a good mixed period for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 GFS is a mini-cane over the waters east of PSM. Jesus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: We need more posters like yourself, ha. You are in Charlotte, right? The Champlain Valley looks to take a crosshair on this one too. Northerly surface drain leading to Champlain Valley Convergence under the mid-level lift could be fun. Yup, in Charlotte, which I've learned is really pronounced "shalahtt". While I've learned to love that northerly drain (puts a good east coast CAD to shame), the reverse southerly fire hose is equally impressive when it gets going. Looks like BTV saw the latest runs and upped the ante. 10-18'' in the WSW now. Nice. Work keeps getting in the way of me geeking out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Lots of downers in here Blizz what’s going on in here , nobody likes an icer I don’t think anyone is really being a downer, just being honest. Big ice looks incredibly localized, if it’s going to happen at all. Looks like a lot of rain for SNE and a mixed bag at best in CNE. This season has beaten the bag out of people. As far as snow goes, everyone knows where this threat is when PF is handwringing over 12” or 24”. If I was most folks, I’d hope the “thump” tonight has a few surprises Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 38 minutes ago, dryslot said: I love the County and all, but jeez, can we spread the snow around to southern areas a bit more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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