Bostonseminole Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Just looking through soundings and it's a brief snow/sleet at onset before a cold rain. There's a warm tongue above 850mb that gets up to like 5C another couple of ticks up colder and.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Hence, the "in 2008 you would not have been far enough east for mostly liquid" response I gave. Yes....hence I was emphasizing your statement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 ORH Grid failure. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 lol that's almost all sleet here. May have to leave the snow down to let the sleet fall on top so i can have a prayer in removing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Im not gonna lie, it’s pretty impressive the model can pick out those localized high icing areas. Fits climo with NE slope of ORH Hills and then east slope cold pockets of the Berkshires for significant icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 ah now that i've looked at the Euro that's big ice signal for places like Orange to Ayer to ORH triangulum with sleet probably 1.5" deep in Manchester NH 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 We just had a bad ice storm 11 years ago, the models should know about history and know that it's not happening again for at least another 50 years I'd say. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 this is angle of ascent -related duration in this run. The first wave is more than less melding into the 2nd one, to just make it a protract deal ..but because the two are like 1,200 naut miles of total ENE-WSW flow space the whole package takes 30 hours to get thru. that's an awful long time to 29.6 F moderate super cooled mist in rain drops... I can already hear the timber mortars and the sounds of distant chainsaws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Just far enough south and east to miss out again on this one. Congrats CNE/NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Whineminster said: We just had a bad ice storm 11 years ago, the models should know about history and know that it's not happening again for at least another 50 years I'd say. Funning or not... actually when the climate is fluxing those rules fly out the door. There's dubious linear dependency at best with climate usage like that. Sides, models don't do climate in their runs - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said: Just far enough south and east to miss out again on this one. Congrats CNE/NNE. I lived in Rockport in '84/'85 ... long enough to sample the climate cuisine ... I can tell you, icing there is difficult - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 There’s my grid collapser. Yes!!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: There’s my grid collapser. Yes!!! Too bad the Euro soundings show rain for you. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Easy to visualize a 60 hour CF type gradient cutting from maybe BED or just west of there, to NW RI ... probably even for higher res models, that's -2 correction west of that line in that interior heat sink where NNE flow gets buried ... That kind of sets up the next slug to be a problem. I think it was Will and I mentioning yesterday that this would be a now-cast nightmare for that sort of shit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Too bad the Euro soundings show rain for you. It's going to hurt when the STEM is 34F RA and ORH is crumbling to the ground at 30F. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 I have a friend going to Fryeburg Maine this weekend and she’s very concerned with this news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Too bad the Euro soundings show rain for you. No they don’t lol. You don’t use it verbatim.look outside box 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 1 minute ago, dendrite said: It's going to hurt when the STEM is 34F RA and ORH is crumbling to the ground at 30F. The cutoff is eerily similar to 2008.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 That's one of the better ice-storm sigs I've seen on a guidance in a long while. Even for the Euro...look at 72 hours and it has a meso low over the Cape that's buckin' for the same strength as the main circulation that is moving S of NYC ? I've never heard of a warm solution below 4K with synoptic features like that. It'll come down to dp insert and the actually thermal profile of the drain column...which if it is 33 ...it's 33... but if it's 28...it's going to be 28 is all - sorry. Unless this run is wrong with those features/evolution between 48-90 hours.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Just now, dendrite said: It's going to hurt when the STEM is 34F RA and ORH is crumbling to the ground at 30F. No saggy boobs except those at the Electric Blue 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 shit is this still like 5th period - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: No they don’t lol. You don’t use it verbatim.look outside box If that's how it works, then I'm expecting 18-24"based off QPF. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: shit is this still like 5th period - Yeah there’s a long way to go. The max snow zone could still be Dendrite area (ICON was CNE), or it could be in Montreal (GFS). Icing could still be over Dendrite or it could be over Tolland. So much time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: If that's how it works, then I'm expecting 18-24"based off QPF. Why aren’t you adjusting for the continued cold trends!? There’s all kinds of things to do than spit out verbatim what a map says 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 I mean look at this damming nose in the GEPs ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The cutoff is eerily similar to 2008.....lol I hope to God not. Anywhere but here. That was one ice storm too many for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shanemacdonald23 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 35 minutes ago, powderfreak said: ORH Grid failure. Do you have map farther east to include nova Scotia you can post ? Thanks I'm.hearing euro is.ice storm.for us . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Why aren’t you adjusting for the continued cold trends!? There’s all kinds of things to do than spit out verbatim what a map says I don't think these colder trends will be enough to cool he layer above 850 enough to change the precipitation type for most S of I-90. Those closer to the NH border it may. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: I don't think these colder trends will be enough to cool he layer above 850 enough to change the precipitation type for most S of I-90. Those closer to the NH border it may. I’m don’t care about snow. I care about surface temps and ice. South of 90 ain’t getting snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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