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Central PA - February 2020


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Horst saying this morning to keep the faith!

It hasn't been much of a winter so far, but don't throw in the towel snow lovers. We have a volatile pattern setting up for the coming weeks with a precipitation event likely about every second or third day. And while the month is beginning quite warm, some colder Canadian air will press into the region at times--not deep, long-lasting intrusions, but enough for some threats of wintry mix, ice, and perhaps even a significant snow in the coming weeks.

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Absolutely beautiful day today...for early May!  But it really does feel great though.  64.4 the current and high temp of the day.  Guess another high temp record is about to fall at MDT.

No one has updated us on the latest for the multi-day precip events.  I was getting a little excited with last night's GFS showing 6+ at MDT by Saturday.  NWS barely has anything wintry in the grids other than some zr.  We've already had enough zr.  But, always remember....Enjoy the weather...it's the only weather you've got!  :sun:

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17 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

65.4 and still rising. 

Temps always exceed expectations, it's the one constant in weather. 

When I was talking about the possible record setting heat this week I was adding 5 degrees on to all model foretasted temps.  When the sun is out the models almost always low ball temps.  68 at the homestead right now. 

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1 minute ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Absolutely beautiful day today...for early May!  But it really does feel great though.  64.4 the current and high temp of the day.  Guess another high temp record is about to fall at MDT.

No one has updated us on the latest for the multi-day precip events.  I was getting a little excited with last night's GFS showing 6+ at MDT by Saturday.  NWS barely has anything wintry in the grids other than some zr.  We've already had enough zr.  But, always remember....Enjoy the weather...it's the only weather you've got!  :sun:

Seems like there might a bit of ZR late Wednesday night (best chances north of me) but then I think we need to wait until the weekend (Sunday?) for something potentially more significantly wintry. 

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3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Seems like there might a bit of ZR late Wednesday night (best chances north of me) but then I think we need to wait until the weekend (Sunday?) for something potentially more significantly wintry. 

So that "push" or "press" of arctic air has weakened or just isn't going to last as long now?

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1 minute ago, CarlislePaWx said:

So that "push" or "press" of arctic air has weakened or just isn't going to last as long now?

Weakened in the sense that the pattern of storms trending north and warmer is continuing until at least the weekend. 

What looked like might have an opportunity for us to get some frozen precip on Thursday has/is trended towards even upstate NY getting wet now. 

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12 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Weakened in the sense that the pattern of storms trending north and warmer is continuing until at least the weekend. 

What looked like might have an opportunity for us to get some frozen precip on Thursday has/is trended towards even upstate NY getting wet now. 

Sorry to hear that, but thanks for the update!

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There is a growing model consensus for a possible snow event this weekend. 

The boundary storms finally all move through by the end of Friday. The last one still could end as some snow on Friday.

Then colder air moves in for Saturday, which could set the stage for a later Saturday into Sunday snow event. 

The good news is that the EPS is now jumping onboard to this storm idea. 

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8 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

There is a growing model consensus for a possible snow event this weekend. 

The boundary storms finally all move through by the end of Friday. The last one still could end as some snow on Friday.

Then colder air moves in for Saturday, which could set the stage for a later Saturday into Sunday snow event. 

The good news is that the EPS is now jumping onboard to this storm idea. 

 

 

Blizz,  thanks for manning the guns and keeping the hope up.  

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15 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Blizz,  thanks for manning the guns and keeping the hope up.  

Thanks. I think it’s going to be a very active over the next few weeks. With the -EPO starting later this week, we should have plenty of chances. We will probably be on the wrong side for some of the chances, but I believe that we can win some as well.

Joe Bastardi today compared the upcoming pattern to February of 93-94. MDT had a top ten winter winter that year with over 70 inches of snow. I was in High School that year. I remember that February & March that there was a storm every week that would give several inches of snow topped with a little ice. Just to our south, these same storms in the I-95 area had mixing & rain. 

I am just looking forward to getting back in the game. Hopefully we get back on the snow board by this weekend. Then we will have 6 or 7 more weeks to make a run at climo average snow.

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5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Thanks. I think it’s going to be a very active over the next few weeks. With the -EPO starting later this week, we should have plenty of chances. We will probably be on the wrong side for some of the chances, but I believe that we can win some as well.

Joe Bastardi today compared the upcoming pattern to February of 93-94. MDT had a top ten winter winter that year with over 70 inches of snow. I was in High School that year. I remember that February & March that there was a storm every week that would give several inches of snow topped with a little ice. Just to our south, these same storms in the I-95 area had mixing & rain. 

I am just looking forward to getting back in the game. Hopefully we get back on the snow board by this weekend. Then we will have 6 or 7 more weeks to make a run at climo average snow.

I'll ignore your reference to JB and wholeheartedly agree with you about upcoming storm chances. If nothing else it SHOULD be active. 

JB was someone I sort of idolized years (and I mean years) ago. Today is sadly nothing resembling a good met. I for one do not listen to anything he says. 

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16 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'll ignore your reference to JB and wholeheartedly agree with you about upcoming storm chances. If nothing else it SHOULD be active. 

JB was someone I sort of idolized years (and I mean years) ago. Today is sadly nothing resembling a good met. I for one do not listen to anything he says. 

Yea, JB is probably not to the level of even being allow to post on this board.  He is bad for meteorology.  Accuweather was the king until King Elliott retired and JB started off strong as his main on air replacement but is now shamed  and the poster child for someone who cannot see beyond his snow goggles.

 

 

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11 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'll ignore your reference to JB and wholeheartedly agree with you about upcoming storm chances. If nothing else it SHOULD be active. 

JB was someone I sort of idolized years (and I mean years) ago. Today is sadly nothing resembling a good met. I for one do not listen to anything he says. 

He is fantastic with pattern recognition & understands past weather patterns like few people in the business. He actually tries to analyze patterns & takes an in depth look at the past, instead of just relying on models.

Yes, he can be wrong & has a heavy cold & snow bias, but his analysis is always very detailed, informative & entertaining. I have learned a ton from him over the years. His posts & videos make each Winter day interesting for me, even when the season is not going well. He loves snow, just like many of us on here, & he always provides hope that the pattern can change.

I know that he had his detractors, but those like me who follow him each day know that his knowledge & passion for the weather is unmatched in the business.

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