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Central PA - February 2020


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Lol... I was thinking the same thing...
There haven’t been 8 days that my heat has Not been on all winter !
 It’s been a mild winter, but come on... it’s not like we have had day after day of 60 + degree weather. Also, people seem to forget that November & the first half of December were pretty cold as well.
One more thing on this topic, if it isn’t going to snow, then the temps might as well be in the 60’s or 70’s !

Gotta say I disagree about the “if it’s not going to snow let it be 70.” We need cold. We need freezes. Just saw a report that things in D.C. are looking to emerge 23 days ahead of schedule. 23! Good God!

Thinking solely about your own comfort or golf game is what has gotten us into the mess we’re in.
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4 minutes ago, anotherman said:


Gotta say I disagree about the “if it’s not going to snow let it be 70.” We need cold. We need freezes. Just saw a report that things in D.C. are looking to emerge 23 days ahead of schedule. 23! Good God!

Thinking solely about your own comfort or golf game is what has gotten us into the mess we’re in.

I was just joking around due to the frustration with the lack of snow.

Enjoy the weather, it’s the only weather you’ve got....It is totally out of our control anyway !

Just like rooting for our favorite sports teams, they are going to win or lose despite how hard that root for them each game. It’s the same thing with our desire for snow. We unfortunately can’t just wish it into existence.

 

 

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3 hours ago, Bubbler86 said:

Depending on whether one considers 2020 the new or old decade we had more snow than that before winter even started twice this decade (pr past decade).

 

 

I was looking back over some old threads of ours from March of the last few years to  remind myself that we still have time to score snow yet.

We still have a realistic 6 weeks to score snow to avoid a total failure snow season.

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1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Since we have nothing to talk about other than home heating ideas, how do we feel about realistic chances for snow before we call this godawful season finished once and for all?

For my yard I'm going to guess I have a 25% chance of measurable snow, and a 10% chance of more than 3". 

Other guesses?

I would like to get at least around 8 more inches of snow for my yard & also for MDT by the end of this season.

The chart below from CTP has the Harrisburg snow totals since 1980.

Currently MDT has 5.1 inches so far this season. Getting 8 more inches of snow, which would bring the the seasonal total to 13 inches. This would then have MDT beat some of the worst clunker years such as 1992, 1995, 1998, 2002 & 2012.

I think MDT averages around 6 inches of snow in March & less than 1 inch in April, so getting 8 inches over the next 6 weeks is certainly possible.

The last 3 years have brought double digit snow to MDT & the Harrisburg area in March.

My best guess & hope & dream is that MDT gets 5 more inches to get double digit snow of 10 inches for the season.

 

BC81C48E-16CF-4D48-A9EC-540CFE3AE250.png

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It is very dry today with RH values in the 10-20% range. Even some obs with below zero dewpoints (KMUI has 52º/-1º currently). PA forestry was reporting fine fuels still have some moisture or else CTP probably would have had fire weather products out per their AFD. I'd say tonight would probably be a good star gazing night. 

857025797_ScreenShot2020-02-22at3_36_02PM.thumb.png.aea5be31063d63ec5ecac110af8a9c02.png

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2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Since we have nothing to talk about other than home heating ideas, how do we feel about realistic chances for snow before we call this godawful season finished once and for all?

For my yard I'm going to guess I have a 25% chance of measurable snow, and a 10% chance of more than 3". 

Other guesses?

40/5

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19 minutes ago, daxx said:

40/5

I’ll take that ! Yes, 40 inches spread out over 5 events !

Let’s divide the 40 inches up like this..

5 inches on March 5th from a juiced up Clipper.

20 inches from a Miller A coastal HECS around March 13th.

5 inches from a late developing Miller B that then crushes New England on March 19th.

4 inches from another coastal storm  that just misses a full phase on  March 25th.

The Grand Finale on April 7th with 6 inches from an April of 82 type of late storm.

Lets book it !

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I'll be ridiculously bold and go with 70% / 40%.  March really could end up surprising us despite this non-winter season thus far.

I've been amazed at the low relative humidities as discussed above by @MAG5035 this afternoon.  Typically you see combos of 50's with dew points in the single digits or teens in April, not February.  CXY has been at 12% the past few hours with a 54/2 combo.  I'm currently at 53 with 15% and a dew point of 6.  Crazy!  But, today has been 100% sunshine and yesterday was close to that too.  A bit breezy so the warmth is tempered just a bit.

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3 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Since we have nothing to talk about other than home heating ideas, how do we feel about realistic chances for snow before we call this godawful season finished once and for all?

For my yard I'm going to guess I have a 25% chance of measurable snow, and a 10% chance of more than 3". 

Other guesses?

If we're talking IMBY's I'm going with 100%/30% here. 

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53 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

If we're talking IMBY's I'm going with 100%/30% here. 

Yep, I meant to say that and forgot. Thanks for participating. I find it interesting that you went 100% on measurable...that would normally seem safe and you'll forget more than I ever know, but looking at all the indices going forward it just looks awful.

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4 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Since we have nothing to talk about other than home heating ideas, how do we feel about realistic chances for snow before we call this godawful season finished once and for all?

For my yard I'm going to guess I have a 25% chance of measurable snow, and a 10% chance of more than 3". 

Other guesses?

0%

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17 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Yep, I meant to say that and forgot. Thanks for participating. I find it interesting that you went 100% on measurable...that would normally seem safe and you'll forget more than I ever know, but looking at all the indices going forward it just looks awful.

I still like the  @daxx idea that I expounded on above.

I guess that no one liked the way that I broke down the 40 inches of snow... ?

Please let me know how you guys would like to get the 40 inches broken down between now & April 9th ?

This is all just for fun in case anyone can’t sense my sarcasm...

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6 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Since we have nothing to talk about other than home heating ideas, how do we feel about realistic chances for snow before we call this godawful season finished once and for all?

For my yard I'm going to guess I have a 25% chance of measurable snow, and a 10% chance of more than 3". 

Other guesses?

I think we see snow flakes but believe this ends up being top (bottom 5) as to snow rankings for the history of recording keeping at MDT.  The thing is I believe the deal is done in 7 days.  They do not count March snow from my understanding. 

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4 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

It is very dry today with RH values in the 10-20% range. Even some obs with below zero dewpoints (KMUI has 52º/-1º currently). PA forestry was reporting fine fuels still have some moisture or else CTP probably would have had fire weather products out per their AFD. I'd say tonight would probably be a good star gazing night. 

 

The mountains and surrounding valleys looked brilliant today.  Definitely a great day to have out the binocs.  A bit windier than I had hoped. 

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5 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

It is very dry today with RH values in the 10-20% range. Even some obs with below zero dewpoints (KMUI has 52º/-1º currently). PA forestry was reporting fine fuels still have some moisture or else CTP probably would have had fire weather products out per their AFD. I'd say tonight would probably be a good star gazing night. 

857025797_ScreenShot2020-02-22at3_36_02PM.thumb.png.aea5be31063d63ec5ecac110af8a9c02.png

Brings up a good point, I know we don’t get crazy wildfires. I know is has been damp but don’t they say we need snow cover to keep the fire risk down. 

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1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

I think we see snow flakes but believe this ends up being top (bottom 5) as to snow rankings for the history of recording keeping at MDT.  The thing is I believe the deal is done in 7 days.  They do not count March snow from my understanding. 

Every measurable amount of snow counts in the seasonal total at MDT, whether it comes in October or April, or anytime in between. 

 

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52 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Every measurable amount of snow counts in the seasonal total at MDT, whether it comes in October or April, or anytime in between. 

 

Those charts they keep putting out are true met season only so they end next Saturday.  Not sure it matters and we can count anything we want.  A lot of stuff online is actually yearly totals of Jan 1 through Dec 31.  Will be interesting to see if they make a final standing post next Sunday. 

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5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Those charts they keep putting out are true met season only so they end next Saturday.  Not sure it matters and we can count anything we want.  A lot of stuff online is actually yearly totals of Jan 1 through Dec 31.  Will be interesting to see if they make a final standing post next Sunday. 

The official stats for the National Weather Service have always been for the snow season running from first flakes in the fall to onion snows in the spring. The official snow recording season won’t end until this spring. 

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Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

The official stats for the National Weather Service have always been for the snow season running from first flakes in the fall to onion snows in the spring. The official snow recording season won’t end until this spring. 

They need to change their wording on their charts and posts then.  They just posted 3 days ago that there were only 10 days left in the season and Harrisburg would end with the 3 worst snowfall total.  It's all semantics.  If we get 30" of snow in March we are counting it.  Lol

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Just now, Bubbler86 said:

They need to change their wording on their charts and posts then.  They just posted 3 days ago that there were only 10 days left in the season and Harrisburg would end with the 3 worst snowfall total.  It's all semantics.  If we get 30" of snow in March we are counting it.  Lol

Yes, they must just be trying to confuse people with semantics.

The official government records will record all snow from the Fall through the Spring.

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9 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Yes, they must just be trying to confuse people with semantics.

The official government records will record all snow from the Fall through the Spring.

That bar chart you posted definitely includes snow outside of met winter so maybe they just keep two different kind of records.  

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