canderson Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 1 hour ago, pasnownut said: mmmmm...mm...good Interesting look, but no real blocking right? That worries me in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 29 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The HRRR continues to insist that some in the LSV see some snow this evening...passing snow showers. I saw like 17 snowflakes on the way in this morning. Swear to God i did.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 6 minutes ago, canderson said: Interesting look, but no real blocking right? That worries me in March. HMM?? You dont see the red blob above Nova Scotia?? And if that's not good enough, the AO/NAO are headed down at this time. Blocking is less important when those 2 are - and pressing south as they force the boundary below us. I'd take my chances any day and 2x on Sunday's w/ that look....even if it doesnt work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 24 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I saw like 17 snowflakes on the way in this morning. Swear to God i did.............. The HRRR does not get credit for those being off by 12 hours :-). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Well today's GFS suggests February is going to end with most days in the 50's in the LSV and on and off rain but one feature I thought interesting was the rare "clipper" it shows next weekend. Beggars cannot be choosers so I will take anything showing a low going under us with cold air near. History this year continues to suggest anything coming out of the Lwr Miss Valley is too high of a cut risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 20, 2020 Author Share Posted February 20, 2020 7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Well today's GFS suggests February is going to end with most days in the 50's in the LSV and on and off rain but one feature I thought interesting was the rare "clipper" it shows next weekend. Beggars cannot be choosers so I will take anything showing a low going under us with cold air near. History this year continues to suggest anything coming out of the Lwr Miss Valley is too high of a cut risk. And that's all because of how transient the pattern has been. If it's not perfectly timed, forget about it. SE crew is benefiting from that timing today. Nut's image above looks pretty good...it just has no staying power. In one day, out the next... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 32 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: And that's all because of how transient the pattern has been. If it's not perfectly timed, forget about it. SE crew is benefiting from that timing today. Nut's image above looks pretty good...it just has no staying power. In one day, out the next... No doubt but I feel like there is even more to it as even in a pure transient pattern we would get lucky every now and then. The Long Range surface maps are constantly wrong in the 7-10 range. One could have made a fortune betting on PA snow storms 10 days out turning into Upper NY snow storms by verification time. PS-The "pattern" and results from last year were basically the same as the results from this year as it pertains to eventual low progression but the HUGE difference this year has been the lack of blocking/CAD/cold air that withstands the intrusions. We had 1/2 dozen of snow to rain or drizzle storms last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 20, 2020 Author Share Posted February 20, 2020 8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: No doubt but I feel like there is even more to it as even in a pure transient pattern we would get lucky every now and then. The Long Range surface maps are constantly wrong in the 7-10 range. One could have made a fortune betting on PA snow storms 10 days out turning into Upper NY snow storms by verification time. PS-The "pattern" and results form last year were basically the same as the results form this year as it pertains to eventual low progression but the HUGE difference this year has been the lack of blocking/CAD/cold air that withstands the intrusions. We had 1/2 dozen of snow to rain or drizzle storms last year. Bingo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 1 hour ago, pasnownut said: HMM?? You dont see the red blob above Nova Scotia?? And if that's not good enough, the AO/NAO are headed down at this time. Blocking is less important when those 2 are - and pressing south as they force the boundary below us. I'd take my chances any day and 2x on Sunday's w/ that look....even if it doesnt work out. D'oh, I looked right past it. I guess the season has me gunshy lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 20 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Bingo On a somewhat related point, the Climate site for MDT is now saying they DID reach 35 last Friday meaning the string of 35 or more days is now currently still active and has no specific end date in site. Incredible....31 days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Some snow showers here this afternoon. Looked pretty cool come down the mountain. If I wasn't driving I would have tried and got a picture. Nothing really accumulating. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: No doubt but I feel like there is even more to it as even in a pure transient pattern we would get lucky every now and then. The Long Range surface maps are constantly wrong in the 7-10 range. One could have made a fortune betting on PA snow storms 10 days out turning into Upper NY snow storms by verification time. PS-The "pattern" and results from last year were basically the same as the results from this year as it pertains to eventual low progression but the HUGE difference this year has been the lack of blocking/CAD/cold air that withstands the intrusions. We had 1/2 dozen of snow to rain or drizzle storms last year. but weve seen +5 AO this year...and it wasnt that bad last year ( Im sure you and your stats gurus can find that # out for us). That said, the boundary line has reacted accordingly and went further North....so we cut further west (which can work when the AO/NAO are neg enough to keep the boundary closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 9 minutes ago, pasnownut said: but weve seen +5 AO this year...and it wasnt that bad last year ( Im sure you and your stats gurus can find that # out for us). That said, the boundary line has reacted accordingly and went further North....so we cut further west (which can work when the AO/NAO are neg enough to keep the boundary closer. I can jive with most of what you are suggesting except the boundary lines. I am not going to go back and look at all the systems from last year but the boundary was very near us much of last year as it has been this year and constantly cutters pushed the 540/850 line well north of us as we had snow to ice to rain situations. Its the lack of deep cold air that has made such a large difference this year. We can say it is AO related but I still have an issue in the way the models are handling it. I feel they were much less likely (except the FV3) to show things cutting under us last year....they were usually showing cutters in the 7-10 day range and that is what happened. This year the models, including the EC, keep trying to start out with Gulf storms or bowling balls that do go under us only to switch back once they hit that magical 7-8 day mark. So something else I/we are missing in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Is there a threat of a storm let alone snow before March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 Don't know about anyone else, but I've seen light snow/flurries as far north as Hazleton and White Haven this afternoon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 15 minutes ago, Voyager said: Don't know about anyone else, but I've seen light snow/flurries as far north as Hazleton and White Haven this afternoon... I think some of that is coming from the front/LES type stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 36 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Is there a threat of a storm let alone snow before March? Late next week there is a chance of snow but does not seem likely right now. Until then spring type weather after tomorrow with storms going to our west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 2 hours ago, Wmsptwx said: Is there a threat of a storm let alone snow before March? The groundhog said winter was over. Bubbler Answered I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 2 minutes ago, pawatch said: The groundhog said winter was over. Bubbler Answered I see. This winter literally has been the Groundhog Day Experience. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 7 hours ago, pasnownut said: I saw like 17 snowflakes on the way in this morning. Swear to God i did.............. I saw 19. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 3 hours ago, Wmsptwx said: Is there a threat of a storm let alone snow before March? The 12z Euro provided snow for many in CTP for next Thursday. There is still a lot to resolve over the next few days. If the storm tracks under us, we will have a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 I really want this to just be over, but since it's going to be cold into June, we may as well try to get something going here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 Early next week hitting near 60. Spring has sprung, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 Next Thursday bring it on....lol may as well have hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 21, 2020 Author Share Posted February 21, 2020 43 minutes ago, canderson said: Early next week hitting near 60. Spring has sprung, The reality of that is slowly sinking in... ...then again, it's snowing on the Outer Banks right now, so there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 15 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: The reality of that is slowly sinking in... ...then again, it's snowing on the Outer Banks right now, so there's that. Some of my friends in Florida think we get around by dog team and live in Igloos up here so I am never going to hear the end of NC getting snow. The "you guys must be below freezing for NC to get snow" comments are coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 37 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Next Thursday bring it on....lol may as well have hope. The 18z EPS, at the end of its 144 hour run, continued to provide hope that the next Thursday storm could track under PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 18 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: The reality of that is slowly sinking in... ...then again, it's snowing on the Outer Banks right now, so there's that. It's coming! Swamp ass and severe weather season. I know you are getting excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 21, 2020 Share Posted February 21, 2020 10 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: I can jive with most of what you are suggesting except the boundary lines. I am not going to go back and look at all the systems from last year but the boundary was very near us much of last year as it has been this year and constantly cutters pushed the 540/850 line well north of us as we had snow to ice to rain situations. Its the lack of deep cold air that has made such a large difference this year. We can say it is AO related but I still have an issue in the way the models are handling it. I feel they were much less likely (except the FV3) to show things cutting under us last year....they were usually showing cutters in the 7-10 day range and that is what happened. This year the models, including the EC, keep trying to start out with Gulf storms or bowling balls that do go under us only to switch back once they hit that magical 7-8 day mark. So something else I/we are missing in my opinion. Yea we had several mix events last winter too but we certainly had more that tracked under us as well and most of us scored that mid November snowstorm. We all had a pretty good winter overall last year minus the break it took in December and the first part of January. This winter hasn't even been in the same area code since early Jan. We ran a negative AO in late Jan and most of Feb last year and this year we've run a strongly positive AO with spikes of near record + anomalies in Jan/Feb. That's a huge difference upstairs. Folks like Cashtown had about 50" last winter and MDT had an above average season and this year they're looking at a top 5 least snowy meteorological winter if the 2/27 event doesn't deliver anything there. I've lived here my whole almost 34 years and this one's easily going to be the worst winter I've personally seen unless something big happens late. At any rate, yes it's definitely the lack of deep cold air thats a major part of the difference this year. You have a remarkably consistent and strong PV that locks up the arctic air (+AO) among having some combination of unfavorable MJO phases, +EPO, -PNA and it's pretty clear to see why we've had a horrendous storm track to deal with. Storms like to ride that baroclinic boundary between the warm and cold air and we haven't been on the right end of that. And we've had occasional opportunities, but we've just missed out on them. As for the models handling things, I really haven't personally felt they've been any more horrendous than usual in the mid-long range. There's always digital snow to be chased in the long range. But otherwise, I know I've seen enough cutters at all ranges of the models and in reality to last the rest of the decade this winter. I think there's been some instances of the models trying to change the pattern to a more favorable one in the longer range and thus throwing out storms that are favorable for us only to revert back toward the base pattern we've been in most of the winter.. but we've also had pretty good stretches of them showing (correctly) about as much digital snow as real snow (not very much). Also, that Carolina's/SE VA event got lost a little bit in the mid range but was generally seen on the models pretty far out. You put a Euro D10 snowmap of that on back on the 13th... reality had the swath north of that but the prospect of SE snow was seen well in advance. We're now seeing the another event that has been showing up in the progs the last few days around the 27th. A very robust 500mb low undercutting higher heights that are forecast to temporarily build over Canada with also what looks to be a shortwave dropping in from Canada and phasing to make a significant system. This overall 500mb setup looks good for a strong storm system that could develop a heavy swath of snow, but the problem right now on the progs is the alignment looks to be a bit west of where we'd want it. The ridge axis in the west is being progged along the coast instead of over C-PA preferred Idaho. We could be in better business if we can progress this east enough to pop the low on the coast. The 0z GFS/Euro run this surface low up through central/western PA, while the Canadian was a bit better for true central having the developing low running up the coastal plain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 21, 2020 Author Share Posted February 21, 2020 8 hours ago, daxx said: It's coming! Swamp ass and severe weather season. I know you are getting excited. Yep, we'll get a solid -NAO going just in time for supercells, wedges and bow echos. Just great... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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