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Central PA - February 2020


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29 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Voyager mentioned this the other day but we are having an occasional flake mix in now but about 800 feet up it is mostly snow per this pic. 

 

 

thumbnail.jpg

That's so cool to see. Like I said in my post, I'd never seen it before. I just happened to be outside at the right moment.

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Sleet & rain mix currently here in Marysville.

The EPS looks improved as we head into the last 10 days of February. The MJO on the Euro looks to head into the COD towards phase 8. The EPS is also showing the stubborn southeast ridge getting booted out as well beginning later next week.

Hopefully we all get back in the snow game soon & salvage a decent last 6 weeks of winter.

7EC06BAA-C8FB-4F87-AF1C-FF52D669290E.png

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4 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

What are your thoughts on the winter “song” changing towards later next week into late February ?

 The MJO & ensembles seem to be leaning towards a change, hopefully it will be music to our ears...!

We gotta neutralize the +AO regime up north. Until we see improvement up there I'm going to maintain the opinion of seeing the status quo of us being at a disadvantage when it comes to the storm track and any kind of cold regime that sticks. We were working the back end of a -EPO on the lead up to tonight's system and that influential teleconnection just isn't enough to counter the SE ridge via the +AO/+NAO/-PNA and Phase 5-6 MJO forcing. We wouldn't have had a perfect winter storm by any means with the track tonight's low is taking, but we likely would have seen a decent event with just a typical CAD setup, and a strong enough high to the north may have forced the low to try to reform on the coast.  

At any rate, we have the EPO swinging positive now, which will cut off the cold air which was trying to push for a change. Thus, we will have a pretty significant but very short lived shot of arctic cold behind this current system on Friday. Models do try to neutralize the EPO at least for a period of time near the 18th or so, but we maintain solid +AO/NAO. What the 0z Euro op has in the D8-10 range tonight with the AO is insane. It basically left the chart which goes up to +7. The other op and ensemble guidance (don't have 0z Euro ensemble yet) isn't that extreme but still has a spike in the index that is quite anomalous in that timeframe. You can't maintain a cold push to our latitude with such low heights over the polar region. We have to break this regime to have a shot at anything more than some kind of crazy fluke event down the stretch. Which if I'm being honest, the 0z Euro is kind of showing such a thing in that same D8-10 timeframe with an undercutting 500mb low and coastal storm with just barely enough cold available to actually snow in the piedmont region (pretty tight precip area). That can definitely happen there or more easily, here... but I'm talking the big picture in terms of the overall weather pattern. 

 I'm inclined to think things break down eventually over the pole. It has to at some point , but the big question of course being does it happen in time to do anything other than make a really cold and unsettled first half of spring. Also keep in mind as we get into March that MJO influence changes. Phase 2 and 3 are best correlated to cold in our section of the country in the FMA period. We're too early in the month yet I think to consider that 3 month set.. as i'd probably be using JFM yet until the end of the month. 2 and 3 are still colder leaning JFM, but correlation isn't as strong. If we can set up and start an 8-1-2-3 type pulse by the end of the month, that could be a good thing.. or at least a start. Again, I think the key to our end game is going to be whether or not we neutralize or reverse the dominant +NAO/+AO regime. It's been the big constant since we've kicked the new year off. 

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5 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

We gotta neutralize the +AO regime up north. Until we see improvement up there I'm going to maintain the opinion of seeing the status quo of us being at a disadvantage when it comes to the storm track and any kind of cold regime that sticks. We were working the back end of a -EPO on the lead up to tonight's system and that influential teleconnection just isn't enough to counter the SE ridge via the +AO/+NAO/-PNA and Phase 5-6 MJO forcing. We wouldn't have had a perfect winter storm by any means with the track tonight's low is taking, but we likely would have seen a decent event with just a typical CAD setup, and a strong enough high to the north may have forced the low to try to reform on the coast.  

At any rate, we have the EPO swinging positive now, which will cut off the cold air which was trying to push for a change. Thus, we will have a pretty significant but very short lived shot of arctic cold behind this current system on Friday. Models do try to neutralize the EPO at least for a period of time near the 18th or so, but we maintain solid +AO/NAO. What the 0z Euro op has in the D8-10 range tonight with the AO is insane. It basically left the chart which goes up to +7. The other op and ensemble guidance (don't have 0z Euro ensemble yet) isn't that extreme but still has a spike in the index that is quite anomalous in that timeframe. You can't maintain a cold push to our latitude with such low heights over the polar region. We have to break this regime to have a shot at anything more than some kind of crazy fluke event down the stretch. Which if I'm being honest, the 0z Euro is kind of showing such a thing in that same D8-10 timeframe with an undercutting 500mb low and coastal storm with just barely enough cold available to actually snow in the piedmont region (pretty tight precip area). That can definitely happen there or more easily, here... but I'm talking the big picture in terms of the overall weather pattern. 

 I'm inclined to think things break down eventually over the pole. It has to at some point , but the big question of course being does it happen in time to do anything other than make a really cold and unsettled first half of spring. Also keep in mind as we get into March that MJO influence changes. Phase 2 and 3 are best correlated to cold in our section of the country in the FMA period. We're too early in the month yet I think to consider that 3 month set.. as i'd probably be using JFM yet until the end of the month. 2 and 3 are still colder leaning JFM, but correlation isn't as strong. If we can set up and start an 8-1-2-3 type pulse by the end of the month, that could be a good thing.. or at least a start. Again, I think the key to our end game is going to be whether or not we neutralize or reverse the dominant +NAO/+AO regime. It's been the big constant since we've kicked the new year off. 

Great read Mag.  Thx as always for the insight.

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3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

 

 

image.png.4df6eda36f350472f56fc04c9b481852.png      Pedro's Weather Report Chili today, Blizzard Next Week.  You never sausage a snow map.

 

 

 

 

 

I've driven to Florida many, many times and I still smile passing some of those signs. Not nearly as many as there were 30 years ago, but then again I haven't seen more than 4 cars in the parking lot for the past 29 years. :lol:

One of my favorites is "You never sausage a place" 

It doesn't take much to amuse me. 

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6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I've driven to Florida many, many times and I still smile passing some of those signs. Not nearly as many as there were 30 years ago, but then again I haven't seen more than 4 cars in the parking lot for the past 29 years. :lol:

One of my favorites is "You never sausage a place" 

It doesn't take much to amuse me. 

Good memories for a lot of us.  I stopped there a few years ago.  Would never dare risk staying over night though. 

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11 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I've driven to Florida many, many times and I still smile passing some of those signs. Not nearly as many as there were 30 years ago, but then again I haven't seen more than 4 cars in the parking lot for the past 29 years. :lol:

One of my favorites is "You never sausage a place" 

It doesn't take much to amuse me. 

As kids my parents had a time share in MB....we use to always wait to see the first Pedro sign and then look for every one of them. Kept us entertained for the long drive!

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