daxx Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 26 minutes ago, canderson said: Next season someone needs to take the Day 10 snowfall maps and add the totals for end of season. It’s be an amazing number. You don’t even need to go out to day ten. Just go out a day most times and it’s terrible. I have kept count before and it really is ridiculous! I think it is a couple hour fix for the weenies, until they get to the next model run! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 Or we can ban the posting of the ten day maps :lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 16, 2020 Author Share Posted February 16, 2020 51 minutes ago, canderson said: Next season someone needs to take the Day 10 snowfall maps and add the totals for end of season. It’s be an amazing number. 14 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Or we can ban the posting of the ten day maps :lol You had to open up that can or worms... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: You had to open up that can or worms... I did lol. In all honesty, the guidance packages shouldn't even publish them. It just seems counterproductive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 16, 2020 Share Posted February 16, 2020 2 hours ago, daxx said: You don’t even need to go out to day ten. Just go out a day most times and it’s terrible. I have kept count before and it really is ridiculous! I think it is a couple hour fix for the weenies, until they get to the next model run! When that first day in March, or maybe April, hits that it really does not matter anymore there is a sudden hole in many peoples hearts at the normal model run times each day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 5 hours ago, Atomixwx said: I did lol. In all honesty, the guidance packages shouldn't even publish them. It just seems counterproductive. Speaking of counterproductive, Im not a fan of those ensemble probability maps for x amount of snow being posted as much (not necessarily in here) as they especially had been a bit earlier in the winter taken out to the full 360/384 hrs. Sure you can make a very general assessment that the pattern looks good or lousy overall over the next 10-15 days, but there's certainly more important things to look for in a given pattern when going out into longer range. Your pretty much in the same boat as you are with long range snowmaps and any kind of specific numbers. I think getting more serious about the probability of x amount of snow type stuff should be reserved for inside of 5 days when reeling in specific threats via global ensemble guidance, IMO. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 1 hour ago, MAG5035 said: Speaking of counterproductive, Im not a fan of those ensemble probability maps for x amount of snow being posted as much (not necessarily in here) as they especially had been a bit earlier in the winter taken out to the full 360/384 hrs. Sure you can make a very general assessment that the pattern looks good or lousy overall over the next 10-15 days, but there's certainly more important things to look for in a given pattern when going out into longer range. Your pretty much in the same boat as you are with long range snowmaps and any kind of specific numbers. I think getting more serious about the probability of x amount of snow type stuff should be reserved for inside of 5 days when reeling in specific threats via global ensemble guidance, IMO. Great points. However, I feel that this is a weather forum where maps should able to be posted for people to provide analysis. Most of us should know not to take a 10 to 15 day map as the absolute truth. They should be used just to spot trends & to look for pattern possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Great points. However, I feel that this is a weather forum where maps should able to be posted for people to provide analysis. Most of us should know not to take a 10 to 15 day map as the absolute truth. They should be used just to spot trends & to look for pattern possibilities. I believe posting a 500mb map 10 days out is much better than a digital snowfall map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 6 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: When that first day in March, or maybe April, hits that it really does not matter anymore there is a sudden hole in many peoples hearts at the normal model run times each day. I dread that day, usually in late March or early April when you know the snow season is over. It is easier for me to handle that day after a decent winter season in which we get near normal or above normal snow. We have 6 or maybe 7 (some years we get lucky during the first week of April) realistic weeks left to score some more snow. My only goal is to get MDT 5 more inches of snow in order to reach over 10 inches total this season so that they can avoid an all time futility snow record. Ok, one more little goal...how about a March HECS to make up for this dreadful winter ?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Just now, daxx said: I believe posting a 500mb map 10 days out is much better than a digital snowfall map. Of course, but this is a weather board...Why can’t they be posted ? I understand your point if someone is crazy & seriously says “lock it in” 10 days out. I think that most of us are more intelligent than that... Otherwise, why can’t we post a map just to show the model output & then analyze why it should or should not happen ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 7 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Of course, but this is a weather board...Why can’t they be posted ? I understand your point if someone is crazy & seriously says “lock it in” 10 days out. I think that most of us are more intelligent than that... Otherwise, why can’t we post a map just to show the model output & then analyze why it should or should not happen ? This will be the last time I will post about this subject. I'm willing to bet you have less than one foot of snow this year. The digital snowfall maps that have been posted this year have probably given you ten times more than that. Why would anyone want to post such garbage! I'm not the weather police, so post away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 55 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Great points. However, I feel that this is a weather forum where maps should able to be posted for people to provide analysis. Most of us should know not to take a 10 to 15 day map as the absolute truth. They should be used just to spot trends & to look for pattern possibilities. Yea I agree, i'm definitely not saying one shouldn't post certain maps. Was just giving my own opinion on it. I'll certainly have a look at what the long range snow maps look like but if I'm making a post pertaining to the longer term I rarely will incorporate them simply because they're too variable run to run even if the overall big picture is showing consistency on modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Yea I agree, i'm definitely not saying one shouldn't post certain maps. Was just giving my own opinion on it. I'll certainly have a look at what the long range snow maps look like but if I'm making a post pertaining to the longer term I rarely will incorporate them simply because they're too variable run to run even if the overall big picture is showing consistency on modeling. Yes, the snow maps can have wild swings from run to run. I was talking more about adding value with other maps like some of us do from time to time. You give great analysis & are the best poster on here by far ! My issue the last few days has been with the negative posters that add no value to the forum. We have mostly a good group, but some other regions are unbearable. I think that one good snow event would be just what we need to get this place going well again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 Heck I think that I have got a lot of my snow from LES this year. Seems weird the lakes aren't even frozen. This year the models can't keep a threat 3 days out. I would be happy with one decent snow this year. Feeling sorry for the people down South they are getting pummeled by rain. NWS: Snow to rain tonight into Tuesday morning. "Only 1" snow" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 17, 2020 Author Share Posted February 17, 2020 7 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Yes, the snow maps can have wild swings from run to run. I was talking more about adding value with other maps like some of us do from time to time. You give great analysis & are the best poster on here by far ! My issue the last few days has been with the negative posters that add no value to the forum. We have mostly a good group, but some other regions are unbearable. I think that one good snow event would be just what we need to get this place going well again! Even though I personally do not like long-range snow maps at all, (they are garbage) I respect you, your opinions and there's certainly nothing "wrong" with posting weather maps in a weather forum. Your optimism is unmatched in this forum. What I don't understand is why you continue to post about negative posters in this thread when you immediately follow up by saying that those posters aren't in this thread? If the negative posters are elsewhere, than that doesn't need to keep coming up in this thread. You have repeatedly stated this for the past week or two. (at least) MAG made a call out a week or so ago specifically stating that no one in this thread was being negative. It's not just a few of us saying that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Even though I personally do not like long-range snow maps at all, (they are garbage) I respect you, your opinions and there's certainly nothing "wrong" with posting weather maps in a weather forum. Your optimism is unmatched in this forum. What I don't understand is why you continue to post about negative posters in this thread when you immediately follow up by saying that those posters aren't in this thread? If the negative posters are elsewhere than that doesn't need to keep coming up in this thread. MAG made a call out a week or so ago specifically stating that no one in this thread was being negative. It's not just a few of us saying that. Thanks for the kind words. Maybe I just need to stop reading the other forums that are frustrating me. The CTP crew is a mostly good group. I think that we just need some snow to make this place more fun again ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 My take on things is that we have a small group in this forum compared to others so all discussion is bunched into one thread. The MA forum has a banter, long range, current obs, and even a panic room for people to vent how crappy things have been. Overall I think we have a nice balance of posters that add different values and personalities. I wouldn’t be against having a separate banter type thread as nut had expressed before. However I see the counter to this as even this current thread will get cold and you’ll see a 12hrs since last post. If you don’t want a separate banter thread, then the expectation should be “all things go” and deal with whatever is posted. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 14 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: My take on things is that we have a small group in this forum compared to others so all discussion is bunched into one thread. The MA forum has a banter, long range, current obs, and even a panic room for people to vent how crappy things have been. Overall I think we have a nice balance of posters that add different values and personalities. I wouldn’t be against having a separate banter type thread as nut had expressed before. However I see the counter to this as even this current thread will get cold and you’ll see a 12hrs since last post. If you don’t want a separate banter thread, then the expectation should be “all things go” and deal with whatever is posted. Yes, some even have a “Lawn & Garden” thread for discussion about bugs & cutting grass for those interested in that type of discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 17, 2020 Author Share Posted February 17, 2020 20 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: My take on things is that we have a small group in this forum compared to others so all discussion is bunched into one thread. The MA forum has a banter, long range, current obs, and even a panic room for people to vent how crappy things have been. Overall I think we have a nice balance of posters that add different values and personalities. I wouldn’t be against having a separate banter type thread as nut had expressed before. However I see the counter to this as even this current thread will get cold and you’ll see a 12hrs since last post. If you don’t want a separate banter thread, then the expectation should be “all things go” and deal with whatever is posted. Just to add - the vast majority of us love snow. We love it in a special way, a way in which when we have winters like this one it has an affect on us. I freely admit that this season has frustrated me to the point where I need to coach myself to stay positive. It seems silly to allow the weather to have such a profound influence in one's life but I know that for many of us...there's at least some element of truth in that. With that said... ...As I stated on Saturday, I went back and reread every post going back 3.5 months. Given the level of futility in comparison to normal, this thread has remained remarkably positive throughout. Sure...frustration and disappointment have surfaced. We're human beings and this is place to come and feel safe sharing thoughts, opinions and the like with people that are "like us." But if others here are as disappointed by the turn of events as I've been; well, we've all done one heckuva job at keeping the ship afloat. As for having banter threads and other 'off topic" threads...I don't know that we have the volume of posters to support that. It might be a good idea...just don't know if we can logistically support it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 18 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: My take on things is that we have a small group in this forum compared to others so all discussion is bunched into one thread. The MA forum has a banter, long range, current obs, and even a panic room for people to vent how crappy things have been. Overall I think we have a nice balance of posters that add different values and personalities. I wouldn’t be against having a separate banter type thread as nut had expressed before. However I see the counter to this as even this current thread will get cold and you’ll see a 12hrs since last post. If you don’t want a separate banter thread, then the expectation should be “all things go” and deal with whatever is posted. Great point about this place having an “all things go” type of 1 forum set up for all topics. We just need a decent winter storm to track to get the focus back on snow ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 The EPO forecast on the EPS & GEFS for heading into negative territory looks to still be on track with it reaching neutral by the 24th & then heading down from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 11 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Ok, one more little goal...how about a March HECS to make up for this dreadful winter ?! Just stop. It's over. It never got started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 9 hours ago, MAG5035 said: Yea I agree, i'm definitely not saying one shouldn't post certain maps. Was just giving my own opinion on it. I'll certainly have a look at what the long range snow maps look like but if I'm making a post pertaining to the longer term I rarely will incorporate them simply because they're too variable run to run even if the overall big picture is showing consistency on modeling. I think most post for fun and know the caveats that apply when looking at a 10+ day snowfall map, as many of us know how useseful they are(nt) . I usually put a snide disclaimer up when i post one, cause sometimes digital snow is all we got. Its the carrot that dangles in front of the hamster wheels in our heads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 We have 20 days until we gain an hour of sunlight. Going back to yesterday’s discussion the time change is when many bail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 2 hours ago, Cashtown_Coop said: My take on things is that we have a small group in this forum compared to others so all discussion is bunched into one thread. The MA forum has a banter, long range, current obs, and even a panic room for people to vent how crappy things have been. Overall I think we have a nice balance of posters that add different values and personalities. I wouldn’t be against having a separate banter type thread as nut had expressed before. However I see the counter to this as even this current thread will get cold and you’ll see a 12hrs since last post. If you don’t want a separate banter thread, then the expectation should be “all things go” and deal with whatever is posted. In truth, I DIDNT want it.....but I'm glad you and some others can understand why it can get frustrating. To the other side of the discussion, yeah, in a dud winter like this, the "main" thread wouldn't be the long range talk of snow, so I agree that all in 1 makes some sense. Just need some to self moderate a bit. Man i wish we had some snow to talk about.... Tellies look like? MJO low amplitude/COD w/ reemergence into 6 after a brief window of opp in 8/cod late month AO looks less + but still + NAO looks to head to neutral That said, while things look to be trending better, the base state still is not great, and we are now headed beyond peak climo....so now i cant wait to see the sun angle/cant stick and all the backside of winter poo pooing that often shows up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 1 hour ago, Atomixwx said: Just stop. It's over. It never got started. That’s what many people said in 2017, & then Harrisburg got a 17 inch HECS around March 20th .... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: In truth, I DIDNT want it.....but I'm glad you and some others can understand why it can get frustrating. To the other side of the discussion, yeah, in a dud winter like this, the "main" thread wouldn't be the long range talk of snow, so I agree that all in 1 makes some sense. Just need some to self moderate a bit. Man i wish we had some snow to talk about.... Tellies look like? MJO low amplitude/COD w/ reemergence into 6 after a brief window of opp in 8/cod late month AO looks less + but still + NAO looks to head to neutral That said, while things look to be trending better, the base state still is not great, and we are now headed beyond peak climo....so now i cant wait to see the sun angle/cant stick and all the backside of winter poo pooing that often shows up. Great post! The last 3 Years in March, the Harrisburg area has had double digit snow. The -EPO & the MJO backing off into the COD for a bit should help to improve our chances in late Feb. & early March. I don’t care if it melts in 2 days, just get me the snow ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 14 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: That’s what many people said in 2017, & then Harrisburg got a 17 inch HECS around March 20th .... March 20 and 21, 2018 was the best spring snowstorm for me hands down. It was a two part storm. I ended with 18.7 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 It’s still alive we only need one. Plus not sure why we need to say it’s over anyway, the atmosphere does whatever the hell it wants either way. My best snowstorm I ever experienced was March a couple years back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, daxx said: March 20 and 21, 2018 was the best spring snowstorm for me hands down. It was a two part storm. I ended with 18.7 inches of snow. That was a great one as well! I even liked last year with the 3 events within around the first 4 days or so of March. I remember many of us were keying in on the last event of the 3, then then @Bubbler86 was all over the the second event that gave us a few inches. He made a great call on that one. That whole period was a lot of fun on here! MDT ended up with close to 12 inches with the 3 events all combined if I am not mistaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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