Central PA - February 2020

[WmsptWx]

53 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

That is not at all what you want.  

Could it really be worse than where we are currently? 

[daxx]

53 minutes ago, canderson said:

I'm more upset about the lack of really any cold air than snowfall. Last winter was a really nice one - that one big storm to kick it off then a bunch of 3-4"ers. We've had a ton of big snows the last decade. 

Yea...a lot people just like snow and not the cold.  How the hell does that even work?  Give me snow and cold!

[Santa Clause]

If I can speak for some I LOVE 25 26 27 degrees and snow....I do NOT love lows in -10s and highs in single digits....can be destructive and hurts to be outside in. I think I can get a few on here to agree with this. Only needs to be 30ish to snow and add up well.

[Bubbler86]

1 hour ago, Wmsptwx said:

If I can speak for some I LOVE 25 26 27 degrees and snow....I do NOT love lows in -10s and highs in single digits....can be destructive and hurts to be outside in. I think I can get a few on here to agree with this. Only needs to be 30ish to snow and add up well.

I certainly do not like extreme cold temps though the historic nature of them interest me. 

[Itstrainingtime]

Not me. Maybe it's my Alaskan heritage but I love bitter cold. 

[WmsptWx]

I used to LOVE the cold. Not so much now. I love having weather, so I'll kill for an epic cold snap and bitch about it on my way to the car. 

[canderson]

2 hours ago, Wmsptwx said:

If I can speak for some I LOVE 25 26 27 degrees and snow....I do NOT love lows in -10s and highs in single digits....can be destructive and hurts to be outside in. I think I can get a few on here to agree with this. Only needs to be 30ish to snow and add up well.

Extreme cold is very dangerous. Give me the mid-teens for two or so weeks in January/February and I’m good.

[Itstrainingtime]

Down to 25. 7 degrees to go to match the coldest night of the season.

[Voyager]

3 hours ago, Wmsptwx said:

If I can speak for some I LOVE 25 26 27 degrees and snow....I do NOT love lows in -10s and highs in single digits....can be destructive and hurts to be outside in. I think I can get a few on here to agree with this. Only needs to be 30ish to snow and add up well.

You know I agree with this!

[Bubbler86]

8 minutes ago, Voyager said:

You know I agree with this!

FYI,  here is a pic of a snowman I built in Florida in 2010 so get ready for that when you move :-)

 

[Santa Clause]

49 minutes ago, Voyager said:

You know I agree with this!

My forum brother lol

[Santa Clause]

1 hour ago, canderson said:

Extreme cold is very dangerous. Give me the mid-teens for two or so weeks in January/February and I’m good.

Exactly...that I can live with, especially mixing in a few solid clippers. I’m down your way tomorrow for motorama...just getting over bad cold so may not be all day thing for me lol.

[daxx]

2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Not me. Maybe it's my Alaskan heritage but I love bitter cold. 

Could not agree more.  Last weekend the wife and I took a 45 minute walk and it was 16 below.  It felt great to be out in that.  If you dress for it, you will be fine.  The people in Alaska do it every year.

[Itstrainingtime]

11 minutes ago, daxx said:

Could not agree more.  Last weekend the wife and I took a 45 minute walk and it was 16 below.  It felt great to be out in that.  If you dress for it, you will be fine.  The people in Alaska do it every year.

Sounds like a lot of fun. If it was like that here my wife and I would do the same thing!

[Itstrainingtime]

Down to 21. Barring clouds or a southwest breeze this should be the coldest night of the season to date.

[canderson]

17 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Down to 21. Barring clouds or a southwest breeze this should be the coldest night of the season to date.

Doubt anything beats tonight this season. It is what it is. 

[Voyager]

1 hour ago, daxx said:

Could not agree more.  Last weekend the wife and I took a 45 minute walk and it was 16 below.  It felt great to be out in that.  If you dress for it, you will be fine.  The people in Alaska do it every year.

That's one of my problems. I hate dressing for it. I love the free feeling of shorts and t-shirts, not the restricted feeling of layering up and/or wearing heavy, bulky coats.

[CarlislePaWx]

1 hour ago, canderson said:

Doubt anything beats tonight this season. It is what it is. 

Tonight might? beat my coldest of this season if the winds stay totally calm and skies remain clear.  Current lowest this season so far is 11.8 degrees at 07:12 on January 9th.  Then, less than 48 hours later I hit my warmest of the season/year of 68.0 at 23:38 on January 11th.

Currently, shortly after midnight I'm at 18.1 with a dew point of 5.8 so there is definitely enough dryness in the air to get down to below 11.8.  We'll see.

[Voyager]

Impressive cold this morning, not in how low it got, but how low it got without any snowcover. We are down to +7 here in Tamaqua, which is the lowest temp of the winter for my backyard station. I suppose the tulips (the parts out of the ground anyway) took a good hit.

[pasnownut]

FWIW, the 384 panels look great................................

Well it feels like winter so I'm happy about that.

 

I saw the snow talk and started to get excited, so here i am.

Bubbles statement regarding the amount of data available and can't agree more.  I posted the very same thing in the MA thread about a month back. 

Too much info available and 1 good run shows up and BOOM...we track for the next 37-59 model runs waiting for it to happen and well you know how that goes.  The biggest rub now, is that while advances have been made in models/algorithms/frequency/resolution.....etc....in hopes that we can just match a data set and whalla...A+B=C, we now are seeing that that's not the case, as warming has seemingly not been factored in which throws a rather large wrench into all of the advances.

Why by default, do we usually see a nice looking 384 panel on guidance??  Because the models are factored to know general climo at a given time and are defaulted as such.  In February, it should look like X, so....and at 384 hours, when the range is far beyond accurate, we get the LR tease that "it's coming".....while sitting in our undershorts with no heat on trying to make it feel like winter while we waste 1/2 of our lives searching for snow (well some of us do anyway).

In the last 2 weeks I've come to this realization, and mentally have started to move on.  I'm in sales...I'm a hunter...I love the thrill of the chase....the acquisition.....but the truth is the ROI for storm trackin for me in the last couple years has been less then stellar.  For some of you new guys, if you'd go back in time you'd know there are a few of us that have been in here doing this for a long long time.  While I'm trying to figure out what the hell went wrong, I also know that answer is literally and figuratively way above my head, and I'm not going to act like i have it figured out....until then, I'm going to follow the indices and tellies, and stop chasing unicorns.  I'm getting a little too old for that.  I'm just going to just enjoy the sunrise, sunset and smile in between, in hopes of a better next year....because there's always next year.

Until then, I'll casually look for a window, and if and when I see it open....I'll sneak in to see if I can steal away some snow. 

Happy weekend all. 

 

 

[Blizzard of 93]

2 hours ago, pasnownut said:

FWIW, the 384 panels look great................................

Well it feels like winter so I'm happy about that.

 

I saw the snow talk and started to get excited, so here i am.

Bubbles statement regarding the amount of data available and can't agree more.  I posted the very same thing in the MA thread about a month back. 

Too much info available and 1 good run shows up and BOOM...we track for the next 37-59 model runs waiting for it to happen and well you know how that goes.  The biggest rub now, is that while advances have been made in models/algorithms/frequency/resolution.....etc....in hopes that we can just match a data set and whalla...A+B=C, we now are seeing that that's not the case, as warming has seemingly not been factored in which throws a rather large wrench into all of the advances.

Why by default, do we usually see a nice looking 384 panel on guidance??  Because the models are factored to know general climo at a given time and are defaulted as such.  In February, it should look like X, so....and at 384 hours, when the range is far beyond accurate, we get the LR tease that "it's coming".....while sitting in our undershorts with no heat on trying to make it feel like winter while we waste 1/2 of our lives searching for snow (well some of us do anyway).

In the last 2 weeks I've come to this realization, and mentally have started to move on.  I'm in sales...I'm a hunter...I love the thrill of the chase....the acquisition.....but the truth is the ROI for storm trackin for me in the last couple years has been less then stellar.  For some of you new guys, if you'd go back in time you'd know there are a few of us that have been in here doing this for a long long time.  While I'm trying to figure out what the hell went wrong, I also know that answer is literally and figuratively way above my head, and I'm not going to act like i have it figured out....until then, I'm going to follow the indices and tellies, and stop chasing unicorns.  I'm getting a little too old for that.  I'm just going to just enjoy the sunrise, sunset and smile in between, in hopes of a better next year....because there's always next year.

Until then, I'll casually look for a window, and if and when I see it open....I'll sneak in to see if I can steal away some snow. 

Happy weekend all. 

 

 

Great post!

It is not over, until it is over, despite the terrible start this year. Our snowiest month the last 3 years has been in March.

The long range telleconnections look good, especially with the EPO heading negative again later next week. Cold air has returned to the pattern, & is coming back this week.

I too love the thrill of the chase. Some chose to give up already. They should stay away even if we get a late snow save, but I’m sure they will just hop on the bandwagon...

 I won’t stop until it’s impossible to snow !

[daxx]

19 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Great post!

It is not over, until it is over, despite the terrible start this year. Our snowiest month the last 3 years has been in March.

The long range telleconnections look good, especially with the EPO heading negative again later next week. Cold air has returned to the pattern, & is coming back this week.

I too love the thrill of the chase. Some chose to give up already. They should stay away even if we get a late snow save, but I’m sure they will just hop on the bandwagon...

 I won’t stop until it’s impossible to snow !

So your saying the ones who did not chase unicorns, should stay away when there is a real threat? 

[Bubbler86]

18 minutes ago, daxx said:

So your saying the ones who did not chase unicorns, should stay away when there is a real threat? 

I am still not sure who has given up except Larry Cosgrove, Horst and JI and I love reading JI's post so he gets a pass.  Sarcasm is funny.  

[Blizzard of 93]

24 minutes ago, daxx said:

So your saying the ones who did not chase unicorns, should stay away when there is a real threat? 

This is not directed at you....or really most on our thread. I meant Other regional forum posters & several pro forecasters that have given up.

Yes, they should stay away if things get good again in my opinion if they made those bold proclamations. Bandwagon people only come around when things are good, or they take joy in bringing people down, because they only root for a winner. They don’t have the interest or ability to see or search for the light at the end of the tunnel.

Some good posters actually contribute on here with more than “meh” or “It’s over” or “it’s not happening” or “next”....

@showmethesnow had one of the best posts of the year yesterday in the Mid Atlantic forum. It’s worth a read if you can find it. It was directed at negative & worthless posters (again no one in here). They add No value & derail the threads. Basically, If they think something isn’t going to work out, they should post something more than just “it probably won’t happen. They should add a map or at least a little reasoning as to why they think that way. They do it just because they are pessimistic, miserable people that do not allow for the possibility of good. They want to protect their emotions & rather just assume the fail.

I AM DONE WITH THOSE PEOPLE!!!

Now, I’m going to go back to chasing unicorns (or possibilities of change or something different for those that choose to have a positive outlook....)

 

[Blizzard of 93]

18 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I am still not sure who has given up except Larry Cosgrove, Horst and JI and I love reading JI's post so he gets a pass.  Sarcasm is funny.  

I thought @Itstrainingtime  recently Said the “Met from Millersville” did not give up ?

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I thought @Itstrainingtime  recently Said the “Met from Millersville” did not give up ?

I may have missed one of his posts but the one I noticed a few days back said Horst had all but thrown in on winter I thought. I could be remembering incorrectly though.   He also may be directing it at Met Winter.  The NWS uses Met winter.  

[daxx]

16 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

This is not directed at you....or really most on our thread. I meant Other regional forum posters & several pro forecasters that have given up.

Yes, they should stay away if things get good again in my opinion if they made those bold proclamations. Bandwagon people only come around when things are good, or they take joy in bringing people down, because they only root for a winner. They don’t have the interest or ability to see or search for the light at the end of the tunnel.

Some good posters actually contribute on here with more than “meh” or “It’s over” or “it’s not happening” or “next”....

@showmethesnow had one of the best posts of the year yesterday in the Mid Atlantic forum. It’s worth a read if you can find it. It was directed at negative & worthless posters (again no one in here). They add No value & derail the threads. Basically, If they think something isn’t going to work out, they should post something more than just “it probably won’t happen. They should add a map or at least a little reasoning as to why they think that way. They do it just because they are pessimistic, miserable people that do not allow for the possibility of good. They want to protect their emotions & rather just assume the fail.

I AM DONE WITH THOSE PEOPLE!!!

Now, I’m going to go back to chasing unicorns (or possibilities of change or something different for those that choose to have a positive outlook....)

 

I believe a person can be too optimistic as well.  Sometimes they are much worse than the debs! 

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Great post!

It is not over, until it is over, despite the terrible start this year. Our snowiest month the last 3 years has been in March.

The long range telleconnections look good, especially with the EPO heading negative again later next week. Cold air has returned to the pattern, & is coming back this week.

I too love the thrill of the chase. Some chose to give up already. They should stay away even if we get a late snow save, but I’m sure they will just hop on the bandwagon...

 I won’t stop until it’s impossible to snow !

I havent given up, I'm just accepting reality that this is a skunker, dud, winter.  I see the signs of better wrt the indicies, but we've also seen them before.  I've said it (and to the argument of PSU) that the AO is and has been the best way to win in the last few years, and I stick to it until somthing tells me otherwise.  It has been our best way to play. 

While I'm no stats guy, and dont claim to be, our best opps have come when it is -.  We know the pac drives the bus, but the ao can overcome/mute a bad regime and keep the boundary south enough for us to play.  NAO...is becoming a unicorn.  PNA is a rainbow.  For some reason(s) we cant get them to trend in our favor. MJO is getting longer stints in warmer regions (ala Don S.) and warmer sst's may be the cause.  

Heres my thought to chew on before i head out.  The size of the cold pool is smaller, and takes longer to mature due to warming state, so there is less of it to "share", and less of it to dislodge, so it stays where it belongs and is "safe"....towards the poles.  This is why I suggested the other week/year that the trend to backload winters is happening for those of us in the mid latitudes without elevation, as we now live on the fringes, and that line is creeping north.  

Just my thoughts/reasoning, but its where my head is at right now.

And if it looks good, I hope any snow hounds come in and play.  Over the years, you, i, as well as a few others have kept this board alive and I hope we/others  can get a fun year soon.  It would be nice to see the board alive and well in winter.  I miss it........but for now, I am getting ready for my nap.  Just is what it is bud.  I enjoy all seasons (except spring), but the reality is it is much easier to discuss warmth than it is snow n cold, and thats why I'm here (but i will agree w/ WSPT that cold enough is good enough for my older bones :)).

      

[Blizzard of 93]

Just now, daxx said:

I believe a person can be too optimistic as well.  Sometimes they are much worse than the debs! 

Sure, too much of anything (expect snow ..of course) is usually not good, especially if people have blinders on.

It just seems like the “debs” have overwhelmed the threads this year.

They have actually chased away several good quality posters.

[pasnownut]

40 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I am still not sure who has given up except Larry Cosgrove, Horst and JI and I love reading JI's post so he gets a pass.  Sarcasm is funny.  

If he could temper is doom n gloom that we all know and see, I'd be fine w/ him, but he gets away with a lot of junk that isnt typically tollerated down there.  He must have donated body parts worth of $$ to the board or somethin.