Bubbler86 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Icon will not give up on our Sunday snow chances so still something to watch I believe. Especially with our current snow jonesing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 I predict 0.61" of liquid for my area tomorrow. MAYBE a couple sleet pellets to start. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, daxx said: I predict 0.61" of liquid for my area tomorrow. MAYBE a couple sleet pellets to start. You missed the word "equivalent"..... hehe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 12, 2020 Author Share Posted February 12, 2020 Wait...we're talking about an event tomorrow? From what I'm seeing this looks to be a solid rain event (LSV) from this evening through the overnight with just a leftover shower early AM tomorrow. What am I missing? From what I can see the LSV should easily reach the 50s before the arrival of the cold front... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 18 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Wait...we're talking about an event tomorrow? From what I'm seeing this looks to be a solid rain event (LSV) from this evening through the overnight with just a leftover shower early AM tomorrow. What am I missing? From what I can see the LSV should easily reach the 50s before the arrival of the cold front... It pretty much is based on the stuff I am seeing though the NAM keeps trying to start it off as a quick snow burst for some. On the subject of temps the low Friday night keep getting adjusted up and up. A few more adjustments and @Voyager flowers will survive after all. BUT people in the North could really see a nice snowfall tonight before changeover. A sloppy 1-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 12, 2020 Author Share Posted February 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: It pretty much is based on the stuff I am seeing though the NAM keeps trying to start it off as a quick snow burst for some. On the subject of temps the low Friday night keep getting adjusted up and up. A few more adjustments and @Voyager flowers will survive after all. BUT people in the North could really see a nice snowfall tonight before changeover. A sloppy 1-4" I agree with all of that...I was surprised more by the timing as this looks to be a predominately nighttime event to me. I think we might have some leftovers early tomorrow but the balance of the day seems dry, windy and mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: I agree with all of that...I was surprised more by the timing as this looks to be a predominately nighttime event to me. I think we might have some leftovers early tomorrow but the balance of the day seems dry, windy and mild. Its actually already entering Franklin county though I bet some is virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 12, 2020 Author Share Posted February 12, 2020 7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Its actually already entering Franklin county though I bet some is virga. These types of systems usually arrive earlier than expected and end even quicker...I would not be shocked if the precip is essentially out of here by sunrise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 The lowest max for me has been 29. Hard to believe that’s it. Friday has a chance to beat that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 12, 2020 Author Share Posted February 12, 2020 1 hour ago, daxx said: I predict 0.61" of liquid for my area tomorrow. MAYBE a couple sleet pellets to start. Here is what Horst is saying: "Another moist storm cutting to our west. Without downstream blocking (which there's been none of this winter), these west-tracking storms will keep bringing us mainly rain. This batch arrives early evening--perhaps a few sleet pellets...but otherwise all rain in Lanco." Are you guys forecasting together? (at least he substituted "perhaps" for your "maybe") 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 46 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: It pretty much is based on the stuff I am seeing though the NAM keeps trying to start it off as a quick snow burst for some. On the subject of temps the low Friday night keep getting adjusted up and up. A few more adjustments and @Voyager flowers will survive after all. BUT people in the North could really see a nice snowfall tonight before changeover. A sloppy 1-4" Maybe, but I almost wish we were getting about 4" of snow before the cold hits. The tulips are about 1-2 inches out of the ground, and a covering of snow would protect them somewhat from the harsh cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 What time should the front pass through tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 18 minutes ago, canderson said: What time should the front pass through tomorrow? The wind would be changing tomorrow between 7AM and noon but the reinforcing push of cold air is not coming until Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Know it’s kinda nitpicking but kinda strange ctp added advisories for East and west of us but left southern Lycoming and Clinton out. Typically we hold cold better than those locales. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 11 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Know it’s kinda nitpicking but kinda strange ctp added advisories for East and west of us but left southern Lycoming and Clinton out. Typically we hold cold better than those locales. We got one, which I kind of figured might happen once we were given a hazardous weather outlook this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 17 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Know it’s kinda nitpicking but kinda strange ctp added advisories for East and west of us but left southern Lycoming and Clinton out. Typically we hold cold better than those locales. I never seem to be able to make heads or tails of the decisions for the advisories. We have had two this year when it was very evident we were going to stay well above freezing and our zones had no mention of any winter precip yet your zone forecast calls for straight freezing rain and no advisory. I have to think any real ice concerns are going to be very localized and not widespread but if something like the NAM's depiction of several hours of mashed potato snow happened then things could get hairy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Dr. No is saving us a lot of typing for 7 days from now with its Rust Belt Runner. He's like the Oprah of the Met world...Detroit You get rain!!! Lake Erie You Get Rain!!! Mt Washington You get Rain!!! The N/W corner of Maine You get Rain!! It does usher in one of the more impressive Eastern Half of the US Cold fronts for the season but the cold air evacuates faster than the crowd at an intermission of a Risk Astley concert. The Precip map for the weekend of the 22nd is almost comical with the only lower 48 precip being Ocean Effect (fake) rain in the Space Coast of Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 34 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Dr. No is saving us a lot of typing for 7 days from now with its Rust Belt Runner. He's like the Oprah of the Met world...Detroit You get rain!!! Lake Erie You Get Rain!!! Mt Washington You get Rain!!! The N/W corner of Maine You get Rain!! It does usher in one of the more impressive Eastern Half of the US Cold fronts for the season but the cold air evacuates faster than the crowd at an intermission of a Risk Astley concert. The Precip map for the weekend of the 22nd is almost comical with the only lower 48 precip being Ocean Effect (fake) rain in the Space Coast of Florida. Just unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 For the first time in awhile, it didn't kill me to look at the eps in the long range. Hopefully we can score something towards the end of the month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Snow on the 511 cams on US 219 south of the turnpike in Somerset County, as well as on the MD CHART cams in western MD. Maybe some of the central folks could do a little better on the front end if some decent precip gets in here right off the bat. Although any accums are likely to be elevational for the AOO-UNV-IPT region. 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: I never seem to be able to make heads or tails of the decisions for the advisories. We have had two this year when it was very evident we were going to stay well above freezing and our zones had no mention of any winter precip yet your zone forecast calls for straight freezing rain and no advisory. I have to think any real ice concerns are going to be very localized and not widespread but if something like the NAM's depiction of several hours of mashed potato snow happened then things could get hairy. 2 hours ago, Wmsptwx said: Know it’s kinda nitpicking but kinda strange ctp added advisories for East and west of us but left southern Lycoming and Clinton out. Typically we hold cold better than those locales. They're issuing advisories not necessarily because of the snow, but for lingering freezing rain potential on mainly the ridges in these counties after precip flips over. CTP mentioned about adding advisories for this earlier in the day in their discussion and this was in their new discussion update below. Those higher elevations will be somewhat cooler than the lower valley locations in southern Centre and Lycoming, especially with some accumulating snow on the front end. Valley temps may stay a bit above freezing, even with early snowfall to start. Just too marginal an airmass with no high to the north. Any half decent high to the north with a storm track as this one is taking would have at least introduced a more significant period of snow/icing for the majority of folks. This is more of a gradient type deal, which we have mostly been on the wrong side of all winter. There have been some winners in snowfall with this pattern, and not all that far away at times... but definitely not here in the central and LSV. Quote No sig changes to previous thinking for tonight`s system. Consensus of 12z models was to be a tad further south with ptype = snow to start, but this does not appreciably impact snow accums. Concern for some 15 to 25 mph gusts late tonight in areas that see ridgetop ice accums up to a tenth of an inch which were outside of the original Advisory area, so opted to expand to include the ridgetop locations of Clearfield, N Centre, Montour and Schuylkill Counties in a Winter Weather Advisory for up to a tenth of an inch of ice after the initial coating of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 5 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Snow on the 511 cams on US 219 south of the turnpike in Somerset County, as well as on the MD CHART cams in western MD. Maybe some of the central folks could do a little better on the front end if some decent precip gets in here right off the bat. Although any accums are likely to be elevational for the AOO-UNV-IPT region. We dropped several degrees when the rain started but so light right now I am not looking for flakes but still think we could see a few here...no accums of course. Lt rain and 39 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Snowing out here now....a minor miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Precip just starting to arrive on a brisk southerly breeze. Light sleet/snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 9 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: On the bright side, this same old pattern is at least bringing you SOME snow. I have around 11" of snow this season. It all adds up...but....1" of paste gets old. Snow turning over to rain once a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Voyager mentioned this the other day but we are having an occasional flake mix in now but about 800 feet up it is mostly snow per this pic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Snowing now, steady light to moderate. Surface temps still need work (mid to upper 30s per mesowest obs). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 41 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Snowing out here now....a minor miracle. Good for you! I can't even call it a cold rain here. I have 43 and sprinkles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 Just now, daxx said: Good for you! I can't even call it a cold rain here. I have 43 and sprinkles I like everyone to feel good about stuff so going to insert some weenie "It will get better" phrases here such as- Cold air will come from above, you just need the rate to increase, with this dewpoint I am sure to be all frozen, the HRRR is pulling a coup and changing us all to snow, it is me or does the radar look like it is back building the snow, The MA forum is reporting snow so its coming your way. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 12, 2020 Author Share Posted February 12, 2020 43 with on and off sprinkles for the past hour here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2020 Share Posted February 12, 2020 I was at nemacolin this weekend. This lasted 17 seconds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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