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Early February Severe Threat


DanLarsen34
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS  
545 PM CST WED FEB 5 2020  
  
MSC079-099-060030-  
/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0017.000000T0000Z-200206T0030Z/  
LEAKE MS-NESHOBA MS-  
545 PM CST WED FEB 5 2020  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CST FOR  
NORTHEASTERN LEAKE AND NESHOBA COUNTIES...  
          
AT 545 PM CST, A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CARTHAGE, MOVING  
EAST AT 40 MPH.  
  
HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  
  
SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO.  
  
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT   
         SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE   
         TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR.  TREE DAMAGE IS   
         LIKELY.  
  
THIS TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...  
  MADDEN AROUND 600 PM CST.  
  EDINBURG AND DOWDVILLE AROUND 605 PM CST.  
  PHILADELPHIA AND PEARL RIVER AROUND 615 PM CST.  
  

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Going to need to watch the open warm-sector convection trying to go up in southern Alabama and southeastern Mississippi.  If a supercell can get going, there is a favorable environment for tornadoes there.  
 

Fortunately everything just seems like “popcorn” convection on the radar right now, though there are some sickle shapes on the radar east of Montgomery, near Mobile, and north of Biloxi. Areas between Mobile and Montgomery have the best instability and EHI to work with.

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