DanLarsen34 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Wanted to start a thread on this. Looks like we are entering an active week for severe weather next week, the week of February 3. SPC has 15% outlook areas for Days 5 (Tuesday), 6 (Wednesday), and 7 (Thursday) starting along the Arklatex on Tuesday, then moving into the Gulf states on Wednesday and Thursday. Could be an active week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Not much different for today's outlook; some of the risk areas got larger but the general idea remains unchanged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Slight Risk has been re-introduced for Day 2 in MS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Day 2 update/expansion with wording hinting at an upgrade if trends continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 No upgrade for D1 but D2 gets an enhanced rating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob's Burgers Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Significant tornado risk added to D1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0075 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1028 AM CST WED FEB 05 2020 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME WESTERN ALABAMA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 051628Z - 051800Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND ORGANIZATION INITIALLY FROM SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL LOUISIANA, AND EVENTUALLY INTO SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO THE AFTERNOON. SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS POSING A RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A TORNADO WATCH. DISCUSSION...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST AL TO A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN NORTHERN LA WHERE IT BECOMES A COLD FRONT AND CONTINUING INTO SOUTHEAST TX. FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO OVERTAKE THE WESTERN PART OF THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL LA. THIS IS MANIFESTED BY A RECENT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT SOUTHWEST LA THROUGH EASTERN TX. THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ALSO RESPOND AND BECOME COUPLED WITH THE EXIT UPPER JET REGION, AND IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 50+ KT THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z RAOB DATA FROM LAKE CHARLES ALREADY SHOWED MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH 2500 J/KG MUCAPE IN WARM SECTOR. STORMS SHOULD SOON BECOME SURFACE BASED AND ORGANIZE AS SUPERCELLS AS TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH THE LOW 70S F. THE STORMS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO MS THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRENGTHENING LOW AND MID-LEVEL JETS WILL SUPPORT 50+ KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND 200-300 M2/S2 STORM RELATIVE HELICITY WITH LARGEST HODOGRAPHS EXPECTED EAST OF THE NORTHEAST MIGRATING SURFACE LOW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 I'd watch the WF along the Natchez Trace northeastward in MS this afternoon if insolation can increase a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 207 PM CST WED FEB 5 2020 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN RANKIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... SIMPSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... NORTHERN LAWRENCE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... SOUTHEASTERN COPIAH COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... * UNTIL 300 PM CST. * AT 207 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR SONTAG, OR 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF BROOKHAVEN, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... OMA AROUND 215 PM CST. ROCKPORT AROUND 220 PM CST. UNION AND SHIVERS AROUND 230 PM CST. PINOLA AROUND 235 PM CST. MENDENHALL AROUND 245 PM CST. MAGEE AND SANATORIUM AROUND 250 PM CST. MARTINVILLE AROUND 255 PM CST. First tor warned storm of this afternoon episode Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Lots of cells going in Mississippi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Confirmed tornado now with the cell west of Raleigh MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 radar-confirmed tornado near Gunn, MS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Trees and powerlines down along Hwy 540 with that Raleigh cell. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Big debris ball now. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Anything more on this? Not too much talk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 6 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Anything more on this? Not too much talk It passed through a very rural area before lifting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Structural damage around Martinsville, SW of the first report I sent. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 This warning is for area east of Yazoo City MS, with the possible tornado near I-55. -- At 404 PM CST, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located over Pickens, or 16 miles southwest of Durant, moving northeast at 50 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS 403 PM CST WED FEB 5 2020 MSC163-052215- /O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0014.000000T0000Z-200205T2215Z/ YAZOO MS- 403 PM CST WED FEB 5 2020 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM CST FOR NORTHEASTERN YAZOO COUNTY... AT 402 PM CST, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR VAUGHAN, OR 16 MILES NORTH OF CANTON, MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES, BUSINESSES, AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 9 minutes ago, Chinook said: This warning is for area east of Yazoo City MS, with the possible tornado near I-55. -- At 404 PM CST, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located over Pickens, or 16 miles southwest of Durant, moving northeast at 50 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. Pickens is a relatively small town in size, the tornado either passed VERY close to them or directly over them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Kosciusko under the gun in the present warning for PDS tornado. If this cell continues ne Starkville and Mississippi State could be threatened within the hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Tor watch coming soon for this evening for central and northern Alabama per SPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Tornado watch issued for NE MS and all of C and N AL, until 11pm, tor probs 60/40.Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Not much discussion on this episode in the TN valley forum except for NRGJeff comments..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Not much discussion on this episode in the TN valley forum except for NRGJeff comments.....Never is anywhere but here. Most places other then this forum could care less unless it's snow or a tornado hits their house.Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 May as well keep it all here...no other subforum cares...at all lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Just now, SmokeEater said: Never is anywhere but here. Most places other then this forum could care less unless it's snow or a tornado hits their house. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk Lol exactly...clippers get more discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 PDS warned cell may be cycling now ne of Kosciusko. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Strong couplet now near Tishomingo, MS, had a BWER last scan. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 TOG just SW of Carthage, MS. Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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