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February 4th-7th Winter Storm Potential


Thundersnow12
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I am desperately trying to find what will derail this imby but have to admit it is looking pretty decent overall.  There is a nice buffer before precip type would become a concern.  Temps look good... no marginal 33-34 degree stuff during the snow.  Duration is pretty good and with some possible lake bonus.  The main concern I can come up with would be if some of the better precip rates/bands just don't happen to land right but that is a possibility in pretty much any storm and largely unforecastable.  So, here's to a solid advisory+ event.  :o  

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The GFS had gone to crap for this storm largely because it tried to stretch out and yank eastward the northern part of the western energy, which led to postively-tilted, suppressed nothing.  The model is now furiously trying to undo that scenario.  Now, instead of the energy getting sheared apart and whisked away, it holds it back and even closes it off over Iowa with the 18z run, which obviously leads to a very different result.

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59 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I am desperately trying to find what will derail this imby but have to admit it is looking pretty decent overall.  There is a nice buffer before precip type would become a concern.  Temps look good... no marginal 33-34 degree stuff during the snow.  Duration is pretty good and with some possible lake bonus.  The main concern I can come up with would be if some of the better precip rates/bands just don't happen to land right but that is a possibility in pretty much any storm and largely unforecastable.  So, here's to a solid advisory+ event.  :o  

BDoB

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1 minute ago, tuanis said:

Lookin like our first solid 4-8” decent ratio true winter snowfall with no mixing concerns. Bout time.

Plenty of time for things to go wrong.

Haha, we are a jaded bunch of enthusiasts.  

Pleased to see a tick northwest on most of the guidance today.  Still gonna ride my 1-3" call though.:P

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2 hours ago, RyanDe680 said:

Wow, 8 years.  That was a click to reset password scenario.

Nah, wasn't that bad lol. I created it way back when a lot of accu members jumped over here, lot of them IL posters. I've lurked frequently, had to create an account to be able to view images being posted :lol:

 

Having quite a few smarter than most members here and some legit Mets. Makes it a little intimidating to post being an enthusiast and not actually schooled in weather.

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23 minutes ago, tuanis said:

Lookin like our first solid 4-8” decent ratio true winter snowfall with no mixing concerns. Bout time.

Plenty of time for things to go wrong.

NW fringe of things just a tick or two readjustment SE knocks NW burbs out. Not expecting much unless models come in stronger NW

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The high ratios and relative short duration, coupled with possible lake enhancement makes me like this event. Pending overnight guidance, would say a watch is likely tomorrow in south central and eastern portions of LOT. I’ll go out on a limb here and say 4-6” across the CWA with 6”+ lollis in areas favored by lake enhancement.

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4 minutes ago, mimillman said:

The high ratios and relative short duration, coupled with possible lake enhancement makes me like this event. Pending overnight guidance, would say a watch is likely tomorrow in south central and eastern portions of LOT. I’ll go out on a limb here and say 4-6” across the CWA with 6”+ lollis in areas favored by lake enhancement.

Not that confident in getting 6" in 12 hours to satisfy warning criteria, so iffy if they will have enough confidence to go with a watch unless amounts trend up.  I would remind RC and everyone else at LOT that it has been like Kentucky climo in this part of the cwa so far this winter, so maybe that should be factored in for a borderline case.  :D

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6 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Looks like nam continues to cave to other models. Another step NW. It is a lot narrower with the snow and and has a very small corridor of significant snow with a medium sized area of 2-3in

Not from what I saw. It has colder air in #NWOhioWx and more of freezing rain/sleet setup.

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3 hours ago, WeatherMonger said:

Nah, wasn't that bad lol. I created it way back when a lot of accu members jumped over here, lot of them IL posters. I've lurked frequently, had to create an account to be able to view images being posted :lol:

 

Having quite a few smarter than most members here and some legit Mets. Makes it a little intimidating to post being an enthusiast and not actually schooled in weather.

I recognized your name right away. Good to see you again, this handle is different from my accuweather one. Does Jdrenken (or w/e) use this forum? Havent seen him on here under that name.

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3 minutes ago, LansingWeather said:

I recognized your name right away. Good to see you again, this handle is different from my accuweather one. Does Jdrenken (or w/e) use this forum? Havent seen him on here under that name.

I do not know the answer to that. I do know that his forum posting, regardless of which site, has dropped off significantly in the past couple years. Whether he is here or there I cannot answer knowingly.

 

 

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Just now, hawkeye_wx said:

Models are showing little change tonight.

GFS has stayed pretty on course today with nw shift and wider swath of snows. Nam has slowly been bumping nw but narrower swath. I see 0z cmc shifted se quite a bit. Curious to see models after we get sampling of this last piece of energy

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