A-L-E-K Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 buried^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 18 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: buried^ Solid 1.6 for you. you still need to come up with additional 1.5 chicago nws first guess 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 I am desperately trying to find what will derail this imby but have to admit it is looking pretty decent overall. There is a nice buffer before precip type would become a concern. Temps look good... no marginal 33-34 degree stuff during the snow. Duration is pretty good and with some possible lake bonus. The main concern I can come up with would be if some of the better precip rates/bands just don't happen to land right but that is a possibility in pretty much any storm and largely unforecastable. So, here's to a solid advisory+ event. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 2 hours ago, WeatherMonger said: Signed up years ago but haven't posted until now. Liking the trends IMBY, Halloween has been the best snowfall here, nickel and dimed ever since with a few advisory level snows. Wow, 8 years. That was a click to reset password scenario. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Chicago NWS calling for 12-16 to 1 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 The GFS had gone to crap for this storm largely because it tried to stretch out and yank eastward the northern part of the western energy, which led to postively-tilted, suppressed nothing. The model is now furiously trying to undo that scenario. Now, instead of the energy getting sheared apart and whisked away, it holds it back and even closes it off over Iowa with the 18z run, which obviously leads to a very different result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 59 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I am desperately trying to find what will derail this imby but have to admit it is looking pretty decent overall. There is a nice buffer before precip type would become a concern. Temps look good... no marginal 33-34 degree stuff during the snow. Duration is pretty good and with some possible lake bonus. The main concern I can come up with would be if some of the better precip rates/bands just don't happen to land right but that is a possibility in pretty much any storm and largely unforecastable. So, here's to a solid advisory+ event. BDoB 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 18z GFS looks quite nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Lookin like our first solid 4-8” decent ratio true winter snowfall with no mixing concerns. Bout time. Plenty of time for things to go wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 1 minute ago, tuanis said: Lookin like our first solid 4-8” decent ratio true winter snowfall with no mixing concerns. Bout time. Plenty of time for things to go wrong. Haha, we are a jaded bunch of enthusiasts. Pleased to see a tick northwest on most of the guidance today. Still gonna ride my 1-3" call though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 2 hours ago, RyanDe680 said: Wow, 8 years. That was a click to reset password scenario. Nah, wasn't that bad lol. I created it way back when a lot of accu members jumped over here, lot of them IL posters. I've lurked frequently, had to create an account to be able to view images being posted Having quite a few smarter than most members here and some legit Mets. Makes it a little intimidating to post being an enthusiast and not actually schooled in weather. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 23 minutes ago, tuanis said: Lookin like our first solid 4-8” decent ratio true winter snowfall with no mixing concerns. Bout time. Plenty of time for things to go wrong. NW fringe of things just a tick or two readjustment SE knocks NW burbs out. Not expecting much unless models come in stronger NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 11 minutes ago, Cary67 said: NW fringe of things just a tick or two readjustment SE knocks NW burbs out. Not expecting much unless models come in stronger NW Don't really need NW. Do need stronger tho! Getting out-snowed by TX or OK would suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Is keeping it where it is 2 days out too much to ask. Just want to take the kiddo's sledding for Pete's Sake. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 The high ratios and relative short duration, coupled with possible lake enhancement makes me like this event. Pending overnight guidance, would say a watch is likely tomorrow in south central and eastern portions of LOT. I’ll go out on a limb here and say 4-6” across the CWA with 6”+ lollis in areas favored by lake enhancement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, mimillman said: The high ratios and relative short duration, coupled with possible lake enhancement makes me like this event. Pending overnight guidance, would say a watch is likely tomorrow in south central and eastern portions of LOT. I’ll go out on a limb here and say 4-6” across the CWA with 6”+ lollis in areas favored by lake enhancement. Not that confident in getting 6" in 12 hours to satisfy warning criteria, so iffy if they will have enough confidence to go with a watch unless amounts trend up. I would remind RC and everyone else at LOT that it has been like Kentucky climo in this part of the cwa so far this winter, so maybe that should be factored in for a borderline case. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Looks like nam continues to cave to other models. Another step NW. It is a lot narrower with the snow and and has a very small corridor of significant snow with a medium sized area of 2-3in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Looks like nam continues to cave to other models. Another step NW. It is a lot narrower with the snow and and has a very small corridor of significant snow with a medium sized area of 2-3in That cutoff, ugh.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 6 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Looks like nam continues to cave to other models. Another step NW. It is a lot narrower with the snow and and has a very small corridor of significant snow with a medium sized area of 2-3in Not from what I saw. It has colder air in #NWOhioWx and more of freezing rain/sleet setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 This looks to be more of a freezing rain/sleet setup for NW Ohio. That can be just as tricky. Some of you are whining because this is not a true snow storm setup. Ice can be just as challenging as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Nam definitely a more thread the needle snow. Could be due to a tight area of strong frontogenesis. Those tend to have brutal cutoffs. Globals seem to have a wider band of heavier snow likely due to how the trough is being handled. Curious to see other 0z guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 15 minutes ago, Jim Martin said: Not from what I saw. It has colder air in #NWOhioWx and more of freezing rain/sleet setup. WPC acknowledges a threat, ice maps tend to be overdone with sleet or even accretion rates being exacerbated. His reply was more MBY related 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LansingWeather Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 3 hours ago, WeatherMonger said: Nah, wasn't that bad lol. I created it way back when a lot of accu members jumped over here, lot of them IL posters. I've lurked frequently, had to create an account to be able to view images being posted Having quite a few smarter than most members here and some legit Mets. Makes it a little intimidating to post being an enthusiast and not actually schooled in weather. I recognized your name right away. Good to see you again, this handle is different from my accuweather one. Does Jdrenken (or w/e) use this forum? Havent seen him on here under that name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Well this forum died as quick as it started. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, LansingWeather said: I recognized your name right away. Good to see you again, this handle is different from my accuweather one. Does Jdrenken (or w/e) use this forum? Havent seen him on here under that name. I do not know the answer to that. I do know that his forum posting, regardless of which site, has dropped off significantly in the past couple years. Whether he is here or there I cannot answer knowingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Models are showing little change tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Just now, hawkeye_wx said: Models are showing little change tonight. GFS has stayed pretty on course today with nw shift and wider swath of snows. Nam has slowly been bumping nw but narrower swath. I see 0z cmc shifted se quite a bit. Curious to see models after we get sampling of this last piece of energy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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