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February 4th-7th Winter Storm Potential


Thundersnow12
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20 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

For once, the dreaded d3/4 sig shift has gone our way. 

Id say its pretty even split of trends going our way or against us. What kills me is that in literally one day, I have went from barely getting scraped by snow with a whiff southeast, to having the best snow go Northwest and getting in on sleet. I'm the first one to tell everybody not to take model runs at face value, and look at trends and ensembles, but even that is turning into a circus!

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11 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Id say its pretty even split of trends going our way or against us. What kills me is that in literally one day, I have went from barely getting scraped by snow with a whiff southeast, to having the best snow go Northwest and getting in on sleet. I'm the first one to tell everybody not to take model runs at face value, and look at trends and ensembles, but even that is turning into a circus!

Yeah, even ENS have been junk in the MR. I think we are now seeing some much needed consistency, hopefully leaving the mega-bouncing phase behind. Now the Euro looks to be your friend. I'll be shocked if SEMI's magnet for big storms this winter is somehow denied this time, lol.  

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Just now, Stebo said:

I like the shift but I'm concerned it isn't  done yet and it will keep shifting right past here. 

Contamination line even gets back here on some GEFS members, so yeah, even more concern your way. Still, trends are much better than it all going east of the Sub or weak BS

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3 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

10:1, but a solid low path for a good N IL/S Mich hit

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

I can't remember outsnowing the nw burbs in a significant snow event (so not something like them getting a dusting and me an inch) in about 2 years.  Believe it was in Feb 2018.  Pretty remarkable since our snowfall averages are pretty close.  I am wondering if this will be the one lol

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6 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Not really.  I'll say a warmer/mixed-bag solution not off the table, despite what the models are depicting.

The models took the words right out of your mouth. GFS is primarily sleet for the GTA. The other models are mostly snow but we're riding the thin line. 

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16 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said:

Signed up years ago but haven't posted until now. Liking the trends IMBY, Halloween has been the best snowfall here, nickel and dimed ever since with a few advisory level snows. 

Unofficially you may have the record for longest time between registration and first post.  Welcome!

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43 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I can't remember outsnowing the nw burbs in a significant snow event (so not something like them getting a dusting and me an inch) in about 2 years.  Believe it was in Feb 2018.  Pretty remarkable since our snowfall averages are pretty close.  I am wondering if this will be the one lol

Get some of that sweet lake enhancement/effect to tack on a little bonus. 

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