Chicago Storm Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Ukmet spread the wealth storm.It is always good when you have the ICON and UKMET on your side.Still not a single storm, as it occurs in 4 different waves.Single storm idea, which iirc was only shown by one GEM run, is probably out of contention.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Trying to narrow down the exact path of these multiple waves be like 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 50 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Still not a single storm, as it occurs in 4 different waves. Single storm idea, which iirc was only shown by one GEM run, is probably out of contention. . The last wave being almost a week out. It could end up as eventful as the one coming up Mon -Tue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 We might get something since we're within range of the NAM and it's showing a complete whiff. May need to rename this thread Feb 4th-28th storm threat for accuracy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Euro says, "Wtf is the GFS smoking?" Edit: Actually, now that I look back at the GFS, it does spin up a big storm. It's just well east of the Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Euro says, "Wtf is the GFS smoking?" Edit: Actually, now that I look back at the GFS, it does spin up a big storm. It's just well east of the Euro. Definitely an interesting evolution on that run of the Euro. Main trough hanging back is to our benefit here as it goes negative tilt and closes off but much colder aloft by then. So well developed deformation axis snows happen Thursday afternoon and night into Friday displaced well west of what becomes main surface low. An initial strong surface low with good track Wednesday night into southern IN has less cold sector precip than you'd think just by looking at MSLP prog, because of trough hanging back, so you're just in broad southwest mid and upper flow at that point. The secondary low then tracks over TN valley gets captured by the closing off ULL and bombs to low 970s over Lake Huron late Thursday night. Hopefully this general idea has some support from the 00z Euro ensemble. Still so far out but the good news is that the better performing models (Euro and UKMET) have a good event with this set-up in the 00z cycle. It's such a complex pattern to nail with once again tons of convection likely in the warm sector like Jan 10-11 so it's gonna take time to sort this all out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Nice model battle going on right now. Euro and UKMET have a well defined storm whereas the CMC is bit too progressive and the GFS is too far east. We should get better model consensus tom night and Mon 12z as the storm gets fully sampled. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Riding the euro to bustville over here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 23 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Riding the euro to bustville over here your golden. A week of continuous clouds with multiple rounds of rain/snow and some diurnal help will get you to your 3.1 call by Friday afternoon, Big game today....and not in Miami.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 6z euro at 90. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Honestly haven't been following, obv hoping for a neg tilt bomb 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 12z UK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 I have little confidence in the final piece being a good snowmaker around here. Is it possible? Yeah, but definitely worried it ends up too far east. Which means if the earlier waves don't come through then it could be ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Expect Euro to cave to other guidance. Metro Chicago going 0 for 4 on waves with exceptions of areas far SE may see some accums. UKMET if verifies will tighten up that band of accums knocking out margins. Will see if the OV pink maps end up verifying to the same degree as our systems this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Watch the eastern sub light this board up! It'll end up somewhere in the middle. Been a while since we've had one like this. To track that is... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Should be an interesting week of model madness lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 If models trend southeast hopefully this will be a nice hit for the downstate IL to Ohio crew. They are definitely due. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 no shocker the Euro caved. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 5 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: no shocker the Euro caved. Pretty weak sauce if that is all it had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Yep, total cave job. This Euro run sped up the northern part of the energy and shifted the southern piece a good bit back to the sw. Put those changes together and you pretty much get what the other models are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said: Yep, total cave job. This Euro run sped up the northern part of the energy and shifted the southern piece a good bit back to the sw. I know that it is a complex situation with multiple waves but the Euro SUXS just as much as the other models there is 0 run to run consistency. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Another winter storm DOA. Is it tornado season yet? This has been the lamest winter for a good wrapped up winter storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 still looks good for MBY.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 1 hour ago, Cary67 said: Expect Euro to cave to other guidance. Metro Chicago going 0 for 4 on waves with exceptions of areas far SE may see some accums. UKMET if verifies will tighten up that band of accums knocking out margins. Will see if the OV pink maps end up verifying to the same degree as our systems this winter. Was my concern all day...now confirmed. 2-4 incher, and onto SPRING! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 still looks good for MBY....You sure about that?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 13 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Was my concern all day...now confirmed. 2-4 incher, and onto SPRING! Nice thought. Won't happen, but nice thought 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 14 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Was my concern all day...now confirmed. 2-4 incher, and onto SPRING! Morch 2.0. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 29 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: You sure about that? . called managing expectations....at this point 1-2" is a decent event.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 As it stands right now, all the models expect UKIE are too far east for any respectable snow in the GTA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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