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February 4th-7th Winter Storm Potential


Thundersnow12
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2 hours ago, Jackstraw said:

Like IWX said we're dying down here in Mudpocolypse.  Sorry for youz guys but if the Euro and Canuk can verify you can have the rest of this crap winter lol.  This is the heart of clipper season and not one yet this year with this non-stop split flow crap.    That's usually where I stat pad, a couple weeks of 2 inch clippers. Has that ever happened, no clippers in the Midwest?  I mean we're even looking at less than 12 total hours below zero here.  

Even worse on temps here, and I am further north (far NW suburbs of Chicago). We haven’t been below zero yet, and only 3 days with lows in the single digits. 

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5 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Looks good for about 4" here I guess. Grinding our way to an above average snowfall winter.

Latest RGEM has ~2-4". 

There's some dry air out ahead of the system. Heaviest precip will remain south of us so hopefully that doesn't have an impact on our snow totals.

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GFS with impressive lake enhancement over Chicago metro.

6F7D1485-32C1-4A7F-ACB6-2A4C11BC89E6.thumb.jpeg.6027d2a30e8a0a4165c61683af18ee1c.jpeg

I looked at that in more depth this evening. Not sure how reliable the new GFS is for LE and lake effect is very fickle anyway, but what the 00z run showed is quite impressive for Chicago and eventually Lake IN.

 

Strong low level omega with a crosshair through the DGZ and strong low level convergence. Also good thermodynamics with 850 to lake delta Ts around 14-15C, equilibrium levels (lake induced inversion heights) climbing to almost 9kft, and 200-300 j/kg of lake induced CAPE.

 

Those sort of parameters if they were to materialize would support moderate to heavy snow Thursday evening and overnight and headline worthy on its own. While some of the globals have been keying on that timeframe, the NAMs are not as excited yet, as they bring in drier air quicker and much faster to lose the low level wind convergence. The upper trough takes its sweet time to finally cross the area, so that's a favorable factor as things stand now, having large scale lift in addition to the lake induced lift.

 

 

 

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44 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

00z Euro... This run has narrowed the main snow band, but added a bit to Chicagoland.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

Actually a great signal for LE if both GFS and EURO pick up on it. Fine tuning tomorrow. Sort of looking forward to the 18z NAM. That’s when I think it’ll start hammering the LE out. 

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Qpf definitely tone down from yesterday here, but looks like a solid 3 to 4" of powder, I will gladly take it.  The 9" snowstorm November 11 was somewhat powdery however the post storm blowing snow had the unusual added element of blowing leaves lol. The 7" snowstorm Jan 18th was concrete. The other snows ranged from slush to powder but were minor fares of the dusting to inch or just over an inch variety. I will be VERY happy to shovel 3 or 4" of pure powder!!!

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1 hour ago, MIstorm97 said:

The bar is in the basement at this point with this winter. But HRRR and other hi-res model trends aren’t bad this morning. Kinda surprised DTX didn’t pull the trigger for a WWA

They should be this afternoon.. The latest trends on the HRRR would suggest a thin stripe of 4-6" of snow falling across the Detroit Metro 

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