beavis1729 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 2 hours ago, Jackstraw said: Like IWX said we're dying down here in Mudpocolypse. Sorry for youz guys but if the Euro and Canuk can verify you can have the rest of this crap winter lol. This is the heart of clipper season and not one yet this year with this non-stop split flow crap. That's usually where I stat pad, a couple weeks of 2 inch clippers. Has that ever happened, no clippers in the Midwest? I mean we're even looking at less than 12 total hours below zero here. Even worse on temps here, and I am further north (far NW suburbs of Chicago). We haven’t been below zero yet, and only 3 days with lows in the single digits. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 GFS with impressive lake enhancement over Chicago metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 5 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said: Looks good for about 4" here I guess. Grinding our way to an above average snowfall winter. Latest RGEM has ~2-4". There's some dry air out ahead of the system. Heaviest precip will remain south of us so hopefully that doesn't have an impact on our snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 After throwing by beer against the wall after the STOU, I'm calling 5 for here. If it sticks around for 72 hours I'll leave the poker table 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 I think gfs might be on a bit of the dry side as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Still gets me 3" I'll take it, would love more to keep daily highs a bit lower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Dry air going to hurt some feelings. And that dry slot showing up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 25 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said: Still gets me 3" I'll take it, would love more to keep daily highs a bit lower Nice to see you back man! It's been a min Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 UKMET 0Z VS 12Z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 27 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: UKMET 0Z VS 12Z Ahhh sweet, back up to 0.8" here. I'll take it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 GFS with impressive lake enhancement over Chicago metro. I looked at that in more depth this evening. Not sure how reliable the new GFS is for LE and lake effect is very fickle anyway, but what the 00z run showed is quite impressive for Chicago and eventually Lake IN. Strong low level omega with a crosshair through the DGZ and strong low level convergence. Also good thermodynamics with 850 to lake delta Ts around 14-15C, equilibrium levels (lake induced inversion heights) climbing to almost 9kft, and 200-300 j/kg of lake induced CAPE. Those sort of parameters if they were to materialize would support moderate to heavy snow Thursday evening and overnight and headline worthy on its own. While some of the globals have been keying on that timeframe, the NAMs are not as excited yet, as they bring in drier air quicker and much faster to lose the low level wind convergence. The upper trough takes its sweet time to finally cross the area, so that's a favorable factor as things stand now, having large scale lift in addition to the lake induced lift. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 00z Euro... This run has narrowed the main snow band, but added a bit to Chicagoland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maneee Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 44 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: 00z Euro... This run has narrowed the main snow band, but added a bit to Chicagoland. Actually a great signal for LE if both GFS and EURO pick up on it. Fine tuning tomorrow. Sort of looking forward to the 18z NAM. That’s when I think it’ll start hammering the LE out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 decent overnight runs to put my area back in the game. Not an overly impressive event for anyone. If the lake could get cranking could be a decent event for NE Ill folks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Qpf definitely tone down from yesterday here, but looks like a solid 3 to 4" of powder, I will gladly take it. The 9" snowstorm November 11 was somewhat powdery however the post storm blowing snow had the unusual added element of blowing leaves lol. The 7" snowstorm Jan 18th was concrete. The other snows ranged from slush to powder but were minor fares of the dusting to inch or just over an inch variety. I will be VERY happy to shovel 3 or 4" of pure powder!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Never like having to count on LES to hit totals because it's more often than not a non or minimal factor. Nice to see most models hitting it p hard tho, hopefully some of the hi res guidance is bullish as we get a bit closer. Actual system looking like DAB+ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Drying trend overall on 6z guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Skilldog calling for 3-5” south of 80, 1-3 north. Winter weather advisory for me. Should be biggest snow of season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Drying trend overall on 6z guidance. Why does it have to be so hard to get good trends inside 48 hrs this winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said: Why does it have to be so hard to get good trends inside 48 hrs this winter That's known as the JB effect... Hype is money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Hrrr trends aren't terrible if your bar is low enough 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said: Hrrr trends aren't terrible if your bar is low enough my bar is low 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 1-3" for Toledo area on the advisory is joke. 3-5" would be the solid bet 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIstorm97 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 The bar is in the basement at this point with this winter. But HRRR and other hi-res model trends aren’t bad this morning. Kinda surprised DTX didn’t pull the trigger for a WWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRegionRat Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 The bar is just over the grass. Cover the grass. Hasn't happened yet. That's my bar. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Absolute rippage here right now. Heaviest snowfall I've seen this season. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Snow is falling here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 1 hour ago, MIstorm97 said: The bar is in the basement at this point with this winter. But HRRR and other hi-res model trends aren’t bad this morning. Kinda surprised DTX didn’t pull the trigger for a WWA They should be this afternoon.. The latest trends on the HRRR would suggest a thin stripe of 4-6" of snow falling across the Detroit Metro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 16 minutes ago, AWMT30 said: They should be this afternoon.. The latest trends on the HRRR would suggest a thin stripe of 4-6" of snow falling across the Detroit Metro I highly doubt 6", but it would be incredible to have a 3rd 6"+ storm in this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 5 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: I highly doubt 6", but it would be incredible to have a 3rd 6"+ storm in this winter. Idk man HRRR really trying to out down 3+ before 7am with the snow ending around 10 looking at the sim radar 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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