Baum Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 27 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Continuing the trend, the RGEM bumped SE yet again. Drawing closer to finally chalking up an Alek bust high. he'll probably hit 3.1 on the button. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maneee Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 This one was a real teaser. Those tend to hurt more I feel. Oh well. I still think we might be rewarded for our patience eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, Maneee said: This one was a real teaser. Those tend to hurt more I feel. Oh well. I still think we might be rewarded for our patience eventually. If you consider yesterday's 12Z runs put us in the game for 6+ with Lake enhancement, and we looked good until today global's came in at 12Z which worked us back to a 1-2 incher it's been quite the 24 hours of model watching. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maneee Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, Baum said: If you consider yesterday's 12Z runs put us in the game for 6+ with Lake enhancement, and we looked good until today global's came in at 12Z which worked us back to a 1-2 incher it's been quite the 24 hours of model watching. Yeah. I mean, there have been many times when these things trend north and then stop at a certain point. Sometimes they even walk back a bit, but this was completely overkill. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 1 hour ago, Stebo said: DTX talking 1-3. I have no idea what they are looking at but they are going to be wrong. I about chucked my computer when I saw DTX's AFD and map change this afternoon. What an absolute joke they are. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 1 hour ago, Frog Town said: I'm scratching my head as well. I"m no Met, but i've got this feeling that everyone's been burned so bad, they are all taking the conservative route. Is it the lack of dynamics that they think will keep everything low?? DTX almost always goes conservative, most severe Burns are under forecasting snowfall. I was shocked when they nailed the last storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Looks good for about 4" here I guess. Grinding our way to an above average snowfall winter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said: DTX almost always goes conservative, most severe Burns are under forecasting snowfall. I was shocked when they nailed the last storm. It's better than having an office that hugs models a couple days out and never lets go even when the trends insist to do just that. That's MKX for you. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Lol @ today's trends. You gotta love it. Guess I'll change my 1-3" call to 1-3 flakes. Good luck to you peeps downstate, and over towards IN/OH/MI. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 23 hours ago, tuanis said: Lookin like our first solid 4-8” decent ratio true winter snowfall with no mixing concerns. Bout time. Plenty of time for things to go wrong. Looks like that's exactly how it went lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 I'd consider 4" a win in this winter. I think it is within reach around here especially with some lake contribution though overall trends aren't inspiring. 21z RAP was ok. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 This will be one of the best snows of the entire Winter in NW Ohio. 4" that doesn't melt in 5 hours may be the best we get. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 I threw together a montage of clowns from today's runs. I didn't even include any of the WRFs or the 12km NAM, but all look similar. I don't remember anything close to this much agreement on any recent storm. Every single one is 3-5" for the same strip from SPI through LAF, FWA, and TOL. We are so screwed. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 I'd consider 4" a win in this winter. I think it is within reach around here especially with some lake contribution though overall trends aren't inspiring. 21z RAP was ok. Agree that 4" still in reach for you. You may get into the evening banding and signal for lake effect/lake enhancement still looks pretty good.Our dayshift didn't make huge changes to the previous forecast considering the uncertainty and also WPC went pretty bullish. For our graphic for the storm, it's tough, with several models except 18z GFS and 21z RAP showing a sharp cutoff on north edge of evening f-gen band, opted to focus on that and then mention the additional 1-3 psbl the rest of Thursday. I still think 2-4" is attainable here in the southwest suburbs to the Chicago shore but we'll probably be riding the edge.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 18z euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 ILX graphics, just on the edge of the warnings issued by LSX, but definitely in the right spot if tonights runs deem an expansion. Setting my expectations low but have a little hope for getting the right band overhead, that's all it's going to take for a narrow swath to overachieve. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Like IWX said we're dying down here in Mudpocolypse. Sorry for youz guys but if the Euro and Canuk can verify you can have the rest of this crap winter lol. This is the heart of clipper season and not one yet this year with this non-stop split flow crap. That's usually where I stat pad, a couple weeks of 2 inch clippers. Has that ever happened, no clippers in the Midwest? I mean we're even looking at less than 12 total hours below zero here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 0z hrrr is abysmal on snow totals. A lot of areas would bust bad through MO and IL if it were completely right 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 5 hours ago, IWXwx said: Could ORD's loss be FWA's gain? We now have the Euro, HRRR, the GEM, and the Crazy Uncle in our corner. It would be nice to get at least one good snowfall this winter. I know, the track will change again at 00z, and I will be crying in my beer. But Jackstraw and I are really jonesing down here. And I am now concerned about getting .1 to .2 inch of ice along I-70. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 11 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: 0z hrrr is abysmal on snow totals. A lot of areas would bust bad through MO and IL if it were completely right Is it's full run complete on other sites? I use pivotal mostly and only out to 29 and show w.8 kuchera. Setting my expectations at 3" and hoping for better. I've lucked out the past couple winters with band regeneration, may have cashed in all my luck but I'll never stop hoping 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 NAM still showing hope, even when viewing snow depth still approaching 4" IMBY at hour 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 00z 12km NAM is pretty decent for Chicagoland. Moved northwest from the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Call looking $$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 40 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: 0z hrrr is abysmal on snow totals. A lot of areas would bust bad through MO and IL if it were completely right We've seen this the past few storm systems...For some reason it is very late in picking up realistic amounts. I'm guess that will be the case once again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 2 hours ago, RCNYILWX said: Agree that 4" still in reach for you. You may get into the evening banding and signal for lake effect/lake enhancement still looks pretty good. Our dayshift didn't make huge changes to the previous forecast considering the uncertainty and also WPC went pretty bullish. For our graphic for the storm, it's tough, with several models except 18z GFS and 21z RAP showing a sharp cutoff on north edge of evening f-gen band, opted to focus on that and then mention the additional 1-3 psbl the rest of Thursday. I still think 2-4" is attainable here in the southwest suburbs to the Chicago shore but we'll probably be riding the edge. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 00z NAM is looking pretty decent for about the southern half of LOT. Not as good as 12z of course. Noticeable lake signature too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 and were back...partly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 2 minutes ago, Baum said: and were back...partly Not all the way back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 1 minute ago, Cary67 said: Not all the way back not going to get there...if I can pull 2-3" out of this current cluster _ _ _ _ I'll take it and run. Fully, expected a shut out on tonight's runs..I see a glimmer of hope 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 51 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said: Is it's full run complete on other sites? I use pivotal mostly and only out to 29 and show w.8 kuchera. Setting my expectations at 3" and hoping for better. I've lucked out the past couple winters with band regeneration, may have cashed in all my luck but I'll never stop hoping I was using COD. I always use COD for HRRR. Loads pretty fast on there. I'm setting my expectations low as well. Lol 25 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: We've seen this the past few storm systems...For some reason it is very late in picking up realistic amounts. I'm guess that will be the case once again. Yea HRRR seems to be playing catch up this winter. I definitely think it's too low on totals esp given the intensity it had. A lot comes down to this first wave earlier on Wed which looks to be pretty intense. 2nd wave looks more like a long duration light to moderate event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 FWIW the HRRR beyond 18hrs has had a tendency to be too dry in past seasons. Not sure if it will be the case again this time, but wouldn't surprise me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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