Hoosier Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Here's the event total Kuchera, with some lake effect/enhancement on back side of low pressure Thursday night into early Friday added in. Definitely not what we wanted to see today but hopefully it doesn't trend any worse. Better than I thought. Euro has like 17:1 ratios around Chi metro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Nice head fake today. Can't say had concerns after the earlier 12Z GFS and NAM runs. Always get a chuckle at how these models can flip so quickly from one run to the next even as we close in on an event. In the past 36 hrs went from a non event to a moderate event with even greater potential to a nuisance snow. Just a bad year if your a snow lover...carry on.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Just now, Baum said: Nice head fake today. Can't say had concerns after the earlier 12Z GFS and NAM runs. Always get a chuckle at how these models can flip so quickly from one run to the next even as we close in on an event. In the past 36 hrs went from a non event to a moderate event with even greater potential to a nuisance snow. Just a bad year if your a snow lover...carry on.... The Euro never was showing it so you should consider basing forecasts among a blend of guidance and not just a couple. This by no means should be shocking 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 It's a shame threads have come down to 99% posting models. We need need some young talent to step up. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 5 minutes ago, nwohweather said: The Euro never was showing it so you should consider basing forecasts among a blend of guidance and not just a couple. This by no means should be shocking Yesterday's 12z Euro had the 6+ area in northern IL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 The Euro never was showing it so you should consider basing forecasts among a blend of guidance and not just a couple. This by no means should be shockingThe Euro was consistently one of the best solutions for the Chicago metro until the 12z run. It was the GFS and NAM that were well southeast until yesterday and last night and now the 12z runs are the most amped. How the models turn lol. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 43 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: Preliminary call for the GTA 2-4". Closer to 4" away from the Lake. Good call and actually I’m more intrigued to see if the follow up wave on Friday can deliver a surprise. That one has most of the heaviest snow in western NY, but the GTA is on the western edge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Better than I thought. Euro has like 17:1 ratios around Chi metro.17:1 is likely too high as an average but 10:1 is too low, probably near or slightly above climo average is the way to go. So let's say an average of 13 or 14 to 1. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, nwohweather said: The Euro never was showing it so you should consider basing forecasts among a blend of guidance and not just a couple. This by no means should be shocking I don't do really do "shocked" it's weather and can change on a dime. And If your saying there hasn't been a southeast shift in the global's 12Z runs today I'd politely disagree. I think you'll note there are far more knowledgeable folks hear posting and alluding to just that. Also, I'm not a model blender I tend to pray and cross my fingers that storm maxes IMBY. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said: 17:1 is likely too high as an average but 10:1 is too low, probably near or slightly above climo average is the way to go. So let's say an average of 13 or 14 to 1. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk The DGZ seems so shallow with this system though I can't see it being too much higher than 10:1. 13:1 is probably correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 11 minutes ago, nwohweather said: The Euro never was showing it so you should consider basing forecasts among a blend of guidance and not just a couple. This by no means should be shocking Maybe you should consider reviewing prior model runs before posting. This by no means should be shocking. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 16 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: 17:1 is likely too high as an average but 10:1 is too low, probably near or slightly above climo average is the way to go. So let's say an average of 13 or 14 to 1. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk NAM and GFS Kuchera ratios look quite a bit lower than the Euro (in a proportional sense when comparing to their 10:1 maps, not in terms of totals) which is interesting. Euro must have significantly colder max temp aloft since that is what the formula is based on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 7 minutes ago, Toronto4 said: Good call and actually I’m more intrigued to see if the follow up wave on Friday can deliver a surprise. That one has most of the heaviest snow in western NY, but the GTA is on the western edge. Not overly optimistic about it yet. It develops along a cold front and moves NE. If the storm can develop faster and earlier, it can perhaps progress more northward. But that all depends where the initial wave ends up. Models are all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Lol @ the model circus. The 12ZGEFS is absolutely perfect for here, bullseye right over Detroit. I just hope there are no further shifts South, the euro as it is already too far South although we would still get several inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maneee Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/08/forecasters-fear-5g-wireless-technology-will-muck-weather-predictions This may have something to do with why models are so squirmy this winter? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Plumes up to 5.8 at O’Hare!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 40 minutes ago, Maneee said: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/08/forecasters-fear-5g-wireless-technology-will-muck-weather-predictions This may have something to do with why models are so squirmy this winter? Interesting read. When you first hear it it seems like some fringe/kook theory but maybe not. Hard to draw a link between that and model performance lately though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 18Z NAM and HRRR miles apart at 36 hours, outside of OK/SW MO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 talk about coming apart like a cheap suit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 4, 2020 Author Share Posted February 4, 2020 Toss all NCEP guidance. Looking like a DAB+ up this way. NAM will continue baby stepping through 12z run tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Where that main initial push of heavier precip into the colder air sets, up will be the winner.That axis is now consistently being shown from STL up to N. IN. Likely game over up here, with 1-2”.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Just started getting some sleet/snow mix here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Could ORD's loss be FWA's gain? We now have the Euro, HRRR, the GEM, and the Crazy Uncle in our corner. It would be nice to get at least one good snowfall this winter. I know, the track will change again at 00z, and I will be crying in my beer. But Jackstraw and I are really jonesing down here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 DTX talking 1-3. I have no idea what they are looking at but they are going to be wrong. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 On 1/30/2020 at 12:51 PM, wisconsinwx said: Looks to be a non event around here, maybe a DAB or DAB+ at best. Eagerly awaiting Alek's call. My early thinking for him is 3-5". Looking pretty good right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 23 minutes ago, Stebo said: DTX talking 1-3. I have no idea what they are looking at but they are going to be wrong. I'm scratching my head as well. I"m no Met, but i've got this feeling that everyone's been burned so bad, they are all taking the conservative route. Is it the lack of dynamics that they think will keep everything low?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Big fat flakes now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Continuing the trend, the RGEM bumped SE yet again. Drawing closer to finally chalking up an Alek bust high. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Advisory here, ILX only going 2-4 with up to 5 along IL River. Hoping we can overachieve like a few times back on halloween and a couple in Nov. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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