Cary67 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 This is usually the timeframe short range models like NAM, RGEM diverge from globals. In this case SE of GFS, 12Z Euro. CMC did shift SE wouldnt be surprised to see readjustment back the other way a bit. NAM is just too volatile to put much credence in. It has had drastic shifts with previous systems right up to go time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 00z Euro ticked southeast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIstorm97 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Euro is a nice hit for SEMI. Also has that pronounced LES signature for the Chicago area and treats them well 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 The Euro/ukmet would be a good hit for both Detroit and Chicago as Chicago would make up with lake enhancement/lake effect to counterbalance the lighter synoptic amounts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Overnight guidance was good, gonna be a big dog if the lake plays ball here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 18 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Overnight guidance was good, gonna be a big dog if the lake plays ball here yeah. qpf amounts are a bit modest, but in this winter we can't bellyache about what could be the seasons big event. Note: moderate in many other years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Overnight guidance was good, gonna be a big dog if the lake plays ball here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 6Z GFS back NW a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said: Overnight guidance was good, gonna be a big dog if the lake plays ball here Agreed. The lake impact on the 00z Euro and 6z GFS is quite substantial Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 16 minutes ago, Cary67 said: 6Z GFS back NW a bit The ensembles are southeast of Op. Wonder what 6z euro shows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Not sure but so far 6Z NAM and other short range guidance SE of GFS also. NAM was correcting NW but was further SE to begin with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 23 minutes ago, mimillman said: Agreed. The lake impact on the 00z Euro and 6z GFS is quite substantial above average lake temps and lack of ice going to be good for once 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 24 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: The ensembles are southeast of Op. Wonder what 6z euro shows? 6z euro general lack of enthusiasm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 14 minutes ago, mimillman said: 6z euro general lack of enthusiasm toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Looks like the NAM caved. Still a tad bit SE of the GFS but widespread 6+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 nice movement in the plumes, looking like a 3-5 area wide event with 6+ in LES hit areas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 12z NAM nice hit for Hoosier 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 12z NAM nice hit for Hoosier 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 NAM is really banking on all mixed precip, looks mostly sleet, for STL, hence the crash in totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 We shouldn't need to use this gif for a 3-5 event, but this winter is what it is. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 27 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: nice movement in the plumes, looking like a 3-5 area wide event with 6+ in LES hit areas Will go on the low end of that for far NW burbs. Another click or two SE with no lake bail out and its 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Love the 12Z NAM, hope the rest follow suit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 26 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: 12z NAM nice hit for Hoosier Lock it in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 Interested to see what the Euro does but I believe at the moment the GFS and NAM are trash. Too much dry air for a storm with ample gulf flow digging hard out of the Panhandle region being shown, I don't really buy it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 These totals are too amp'ed. This is 2019-2020, year of the overdone model. Even at 10:1, I don't see the moisture to support that swath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 1 minute ago, RyanDe680 said: These totals are too amp'ed. This is 2019-2020, year of the overdone model. Even at 10:1, I don't see the moisture to support that swath. I agree. These maps are pretty to look at but I’m prepared for a 4-6 inch event for most of us. If we get more I’ll be thrilled. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterStorm294 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 DTX seem pessimistic about this one. Quote So, there remains uncertainty in liquid to snow ratios which causes sensitivity to the bottom line snow forecast. The forecast soundings do not offer a great signal for high snow ratios with a deep isothermal layer (-3 to -4 C) from 4.0 to 10.0 kft which favors needles and columns. Did not change snow ratios much for the warm advection/fgen event and used 9:1 to 11:1. So with a QPF forecast of .25 to .40 inch, continued with a 2 to 4 inch forecast for the event through 18Z Thursday. Current indications suggest an advisory event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 12z GFS is drier then 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 6 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said: These totals are too amp'ed. This is 2019-2020, year of the overdone model. Even at 10:1, I don't see the moisture to support that swath. most likely overdone...as they typically are...any year...and I would not say amped. Looks like a solid 3-6" snow event with the wildcard being lake enhancement. This was never a 8-12" type event in this neck of the woods. 12Z GFS holds serve on placement it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 4, 2020 Share Posted February 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, Baum said: most likely overdone...as they typically are...any year...and I would not say amped. Looks like a solid 3-6" snow event with the wildcard being lake enhancement. This was never a 8-12" type event in this neck of the woods. 12Z GFS holds serve on placement it appears. I think given this winter, 2-4" is amp'ed.... (kicks small 4" x 3" ice glacier) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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