michsnowfreak Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 51 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Another winter storm DOA. I did not realize it was already Wednesday or Thursday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 6 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: As it stands right now, all the models expect UKIE are too far east for any respectable snow in the GTA. Actually the GEFS mean is about perfect for Toronto 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 6 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Actually the GEFS mean is about perfect for Toronto Atleast we got ensemble support. Tomorrow's runs will be key if the eastward trends continue or we slowly slip back further west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 5 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: Atleast we got ensemble support. Tomorrow's runs will be key if the eastward trends continue or we slowly slip back further west. I will be honest, I have lost all faith in models and ensembles at this point. They're fun to look at but nothing more, from a detail perspective, until the event is almost here. Imo regardless of what they show tomorrow, I still would not consider that the key run date. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said: I will be honest, I have lost all faith in models and ensembles at this point. They're fun to look at but nothing more, from a detail perspective, until the event is almost here. Imo regardless of what they show tomorrow, I still would not consider that the key run date. I look at trends on the models more than specific amounts or temperature gradients. Since yesterday all models have shifted east of the Apps. The key now is if this continues or things shift back in our favor. However, I do agree with what you said. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twisted.minds Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 This is some good information, thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 31 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: I did not realize it was already Wednesday or Thursday I mean yeah it can change but trends definitely not going in the right direction as of now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 NAM run to run is trending with slower more neutrally tilted trough with a faster northern stream piece across Ontario. It could be complete BS but that is one positive trend in a model today. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 1 hour ago, Snowstorms said: As it stands right now, all the models expect UKIE are too far east for any respectable snow in the GTA. That EURO snowfall accum map posted on the other page looked pretty decent, even though it cutoff just to our west. ICON also a nice hit and it handled last weekend's storm perfectly. Notwithstanding today's trends, I think a warm/wet solution is not inconceivable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 The GFS has actually been trending slightly north and west over the last few runs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LansingWeather Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 3 hours ago, Hoosier said: Nice thought. Won't happen, but nice thought Glad i'm going back to summer...Stayed here too log because I thought it would turn around lol. Leaving for PR on the 9th, cant wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Starting to feel there will be accumulating snow Wednesday Night and Thursday in #NWOhioWx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 25 minutes ago, Jim Martin said: Starting to feel there will be accumulating snow Wednesday Night and Thursday in #NWOhioWx. That's the feeling i'm getting. These are the set the eastern lower lakes usually do well in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 1 hour ago, LansingWeather said: Glad i'm going back to summer...Stayed here too log because I thought it would turn around lol. Leaving for PR on the 9th, cant wait. Hoping to get down there again this fall. Been down there 3 times in the last 25 years. My paternal grandfather was born and raised in the Aguas Buenas area before going to IU to become a dentist and serving in WWII as a medical officer in the European theater. He retired back to PR the mid 70's offering free dental to the people where he grew up. I was fortunate enough to go there 25 years ago prior to his passing and meet an extended family and what an absolutely beautiful part of the Island Aguas Buenas is. True to it's name it's one of the best places I've ever traveled to. My brother and I are trying to plan a trip again this coming fall to see some of our half brothers and sisters and their family's again as we are the eldest grandchildren and life is flying by. I remember my grandfather telling me one of the biggest things he missed about the US besides his US family was snow. He said he was 18 when he experienced his first snow in Bloomington and his classmates thought he was crazy because he sat outside all night as it fell having never seen it before lol. I wish more Americans would travel there, it truly is a beautiful island and the people, the food and culture there are amazing. Sorry for off topic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LansingWeather Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 41 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: Hoping to get down there again this fall. Been down there 3 times in the last 25 years. My paternal grandfather was born and raised in the Aguas Buenas area before going to IU to become a dentist and serving in WWII as a medical officer in the European theater. He retired back to PR the mid 70's offering free dental to the people where he grew up. I was fortunate enough to go there 25 years ago prior to his passing and meet an extended family and what an absolutely beautiful part of the Island Aguas Buenas is. True to it's name it's one of the best places I've ever traveled to. My brother and I are trying to plan a trip again this coming fall to see some of our half brothers and sisters and their family's again as we are the eldest grandchildren and life is flying by. I remember my grandfather telling me one of the biggest things he missed about the US besides his US family was snow. He said he was 18 when he experienced his first snow in Bloomington and his classmates thought he was crazy because he sat outside all night as it fell having never seen it before lol. I wish more Americans would travel there, it truly is a beautiful island and the people, the food and culture there are amazing. Sorry for off topic. Aguas buenas is awesome! (so is the whole island!) but the weather is rather boring for me. thats what I hate most about it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 2 hours ago, Jim Martin said: Starting to feel there will be accumulating snow Wednesday Night and Thursday in #NWOhioWx. Coming on 50F soils tho, it'll be more like an April event. Tough "open" winter around the Lwr Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LansingWeather Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 21 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Coming on 50F soils tho, it'll be more like an April event. Tough "open" winter around the Lwr Lakes. Uh????????????????? No? How do you even say crap like that? It was warm today but will cool off in N OH and around here, then tomorrow highs in the low 40s. The soils are going to be mid 30s, tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Comparing the NAM and ICON at 72 hrs, it is almost hard to believe both are valid at 00z Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 18 minutes ago, LansingWeather said: Uh????????????????? No? How do you even say crap like that? It was warm today but will cool off in N OH and around here, then tomorrow highs in the low 40s. The soils are going to be mid 30s, tops. Top 1/2" will cool down ofc. Going off somebody's post from down that way saying he has 49F soil temps currently. Not like it's going down below zero prior to the incoming snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 ICON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Comparing the NAM and ICON at 72 hrs, it is almost hard to believe both are valid at 00z Thursday. Contrast? Wat contrast? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 1 minute ago, ILSNOW said: ICON I see the ICON still hasn't gotten the memo that things have trended SE and underwhelming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 @ ICON Nothing like whiffs S to rainer, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 This is just stupid. Massive differences in handling the trough, which has massive effects at the surface. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 From the NWS in Cleveland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIstorm97 Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 GFS is definitely more ICON-like than toward the NAM. Huge differences in how that trough is being handled just a few days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 GFS has back-stepped after leading the SE and weaker charge. GoFigureSh*t out model. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 cmc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 Major, and I mean MAJOR shift back NW by the GGEM. LOL, the 12z was a complete whiff S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 3, 2020 Share Posted February 3, 2020 1 minute ago, RogueWaves said: Major, and I mean MAJOR shift back NW by the GGEM. LOL, the 12z was a complete whiff S I was gonna say, it was fairly consistent having me in the game the last few runs. If the Canuk jumps ship for me I'm toast lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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