hawkeye_wx Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 12z UK is similar to last night. It has the initial weak wave that drops a bit of light snow up here, then there's a second, stronger wave, then a third good wave for eastern areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 1 hour ago, Jim Martin said: The 12z GFS Ensembles today on the opposite end of the scale from the Deterministic. Operational is faster than nearly every ensemble, also faster than the NAM/GEM/UKMET. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 12z Euro is less interesting again, more positively-tilted/east/weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 9 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: 12z Euro is less interesting again, more positively-tilted/east/weak. Yep what 2days ago look like multiple shots of snow is run by run becoming worse. What was originally a mon nite / Tuesday became Tuesday nite/Wednesday is now a 1-3 inch job on Thursday!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Sorry for you all of you in the Western sub, but for us to score(outside of a bowling ball), the 12Z is what we would need for the Eastern Sub to score. Postively-tilted/east/weak-er. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Models allll over the place lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 So... Mon night-Tue morning is dead and gone. Tue night-Wed morning is trending towards DOA. Wed evening-Thur morning looks good for somewhere in the area. Thur is the final potential wave, but may or may not occur, depending on how the trough and ejection evolves.Cluster**** as expected.. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maneee Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: So... Mon night-Tue morning is dead and gone. Tue night-Wed morning is trending towards DOA. Wed evening-Thur morning looks good for somewhere in the area. Thur is the final potential wave, but may or may not occur, depending on how the trough and ejection evolves. Cluster**** as expected. . Yep. Very frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 12 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: So... Mon night-Tue morning is dead and gone. Tue night-Wed morning is trending towards DOA. Wed evening-Thur morning looks good for somewhere in the area. Thur is the final potential wave, but may or may not occur, depending on how the trough and ejection evolves. Cluster**** as expected. . Pretty much the story of winter 2019-2020. Seems like the trend this winter is to look good in the long range then slowly fall apart as we get closer. Hoping we can get at least one decent wave out of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Alek is going to bust high again on his prediction of 3.1!!!’ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 19 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: So... Mon night-Tue morning is dead and gone. Tue night-Wed morning is trending towards DOA. Wed evening-Thur morning looks good for somewhere in the area. Thur is the final potential wave, but may or may not occur, depending on how the trough and ejection evolves. Cluster**** as expected. . Amazing all this money spent in "improving" models and this is the garbage we get. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 20 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: So... Mon night-Tue morning is dead and gone. Tue night-Wed morning is trending towards DOA. Wed evening-Thur morning looks good for somewhere in the area. Thur is the final potential wave, but may or may not occur, depending on how the trough and ejection evolves. Cluster**** as expected. . In other words, something will happen at some point somewhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 5 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: Alek is going to bust high again on his prediction of 3.1!!!’ I said this 2 days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 On 1/30/2020 at 10:20 AM, SchaumburgStormer said: GFS pretty consistent with a solid hit for a portion of LOT for the last few runs. But its the "upgraded" GFS... It needs to score a coup before I put any weight into it. Seasonal trends say this ends up a strung out POS that gives the jackpot zone 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said: So... Mon night-Tue morning is dead and gone. Tue night-Wed morning is trending towards DOA. Wed evening-Thur morning looks good for somewhere in the area. Thur is the final potential wave, but may or may not occur, depending on how the trough and ejection evolves. Cluster**** as expected. . Basically the GFS shouldnt run out further than the UKMET of 144hrs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 1 hour ago, ILSNOW said: Alek is going to bust high again on his prediction of 3.1!!!’ probably end up right on the money based on current trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 I'll go with 1-3" for the first call for here/QC. Good chance that will be the final call. Nocturnal nickel and diming our way towards an avg winter. Def could be worse. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 8 minutes ago, Cary67 said: Basically the GFS shouldnt run out further than the HRRR of 18hrs FYP 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 1 hour ago, StormChaser4Life said: Pretty much the story of winter 2019-2020. Seems like the trend this winter is to look good in the long range then slowly fall apart as we get closer. Hoping we can get at least one decent wave out of this I do think we get at least one decent wave out of it, the story of the Winter has been joke of models in the long range, but honestly we have had quite a few juiced up storms in the region, and this includes both rain and snow. Now, when, where, how much? Don't even think of that for quite a few days lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 6 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: Still too far away for detailed discussion in my book. As I said the other day, I like the active look on the models, but no sense in stressing about details this far out. If anything, props to our sub as one of the most level headed of this forum. Reading some of the other sub forums and their run to run emotions is just over the top. Get me fresh snow and I'll be happy lol, I don't care how much. I've already had 2 decent storms, a little bit of middle ground would be just fine, so you can bet that if this storm turns in to be a strung out mess but I still get a few inches, I will be happy. Of course, the more the better, but im not the all or nothing type Agree 100% As someone said, the new and improved models have taken all the fun out of storm tracking known in former times and wx boards. The way it is right now, might as well just have general discussion thread(s) until it's game-time, then whip out an Obs thread and call it good. Nobody (even ALEK) can feel confident of a call or even allowing self to get pumped for an event. Explains the lack of enthusiasm and posts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 But, just for fun since, I mean, how often do you see a 972 mb Low where Uncle Ukie's flashing one? Ukie's trying to make this a rideable super LR call 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 9 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: But, just for fun since, I mean, how often do you see a 972 mb Low where Uncle Ukie's flashing one? Ukie's trying to make this a rideable super LR call Shades of the phantom bomb of Feb 09. Would be super rare indeed. In fact, I will ride the UKMET for the rest of my life if that verifies. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Keeping expectations low. All I want is to outsnow Dallas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 4 hours ago, Hoosier said: In other words, something will happen at some point somewhere. The Hoosier model, best performing one this winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vpbob21 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Shades of the phantom bomb of Feb 09. Would be super rare indeed. In fact, I will ride the UKMET for the rest of my life if that verifies. That's usually a dream track for OH but snowfall amounts look really lame, only around 3-6". Can't really tell from Pivotal's maps if it's still snowing at 144h but even if it is, tacking on another 2 or 3 inches still makes it a disappointing storm. Don't get me wrong I would certainly take a 3"-6", 4"-8" snow (best snow I've had this season is 3"), but with a 972 mb low tracking NE through WV you would think there would be a swath of 1'-2' somewhere (at least). It's amazing how even storms with good tracks have managed to screw most of us this season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: Keeping expectations low. All I want is to outsnow Dallas. you have May 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 00z ICON at least has something respectable. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 23 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 00z ICON at least has something respectable. There is a reason why too, the northern stream piece of energy is faster. Of all the things that could happen, that is at least a plausible thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Ukmet spread the wealth storm.It is always good when you have the ICON and UKMET on your side. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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