Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Enough agreement for something in the time frame as others have mentioned. GEFS don't look bad at this range and some areas can still do well even with a more strung out look with good WAA into and over a tight baroclinic zone. Last night's 0z GFS was probably close to best case for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Bound to fail now that you made one. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 miss south stank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2020 Author Share Posted January 29, 2020 You both already called rainer so you're locked into those. Already back pedaling 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 First call 1.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just now, Thundersnow12 said: You both already called rainer so you're locked into those. Already back pedaling knew i'd get you with that one final calls always come at D5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Wouldn't shock this guy if we finally get a pattern shift, and things start running SE of us.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2020 Author Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just now, A-L-E-K said: knew i'd get you with that one final calls always come at D5 Joe said he was kidding but at least you stick to it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Anything can go wrong this far out but as tsnow said in the first post, a more strung out/less phased outcome can still be a decent storm for somebody. On the other end, you see what happens when there's more phasing like the 12z Canadian. Early take... I don't expect a clean snow event around here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 6 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Wouldn't shock this guy if we finally get a pattern shift, and things start running SE of us.. The pattern isn't really shifting to anything too different. We are basically reverting back to the pattern we had about 2 weeks ago. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Only ~180 hours out. What could possibly go wrong? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 10 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Anything can go wrong this far out but as tsnow said in the first post, a more strung out/less phased outcome can still be a decent storm for somebody. On the other end, you see what happens when there's more phasing like the 12z Canadian. Early take... I don't expect a clean snow event around here. That's something Alek would say, not Hoosier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 2 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: That's something Alek would say, not Hoosier. Why bet against it. The all snow events here have pretty much been inch or less stuff, and the upcoming pattern does not look suppressed as there is pretty strong southeast ridging during this storm's timeframe. I dare mother nature to make it an all snow event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 13 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Why bet against it. The all snow events here have pretty much been inch or less stuff, and the upcoming pattern does not look suppressed as there is pretty strong southeast ridging during this storm's timeframe. I dare mother nature to make it an all snow event. Fair point. But there are things that may work in your favor. The transitioning NAO and PNA may help to suppress the developing SE ridge somewhat. February has been our best month in recent years lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 6 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: Fair point. But there are things that may work in your favor. The transitioning NAO and PNA may help to suppress the developing SE ridge somewhat. February has been our best month in recent years lol. The PNA going from + to - is more supportive of a SE ridge, not the other way around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2020 Author Share Posted January 29, 2020 Euro with a more strung out look but still decent for some. 4-6" swath with initial slug of precip on Tuesday across IA/IL (Chi metro included) Secondary defo area tries to get going with main system later Wednesday and leads to highest totals in SW MI of 8-12" 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: The PNA going from + to - is more supportive of a SE ridge, not the other way around. Thanks for the correction! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 11 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: Thanks for the correction! To be fair, slight Southeast ridge may help keep continuously pumping winter systems into the Ohio Valley and lakes. Honestly not a bad look for us. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 14 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: Euro with a more strung out look but still decent for some. 4-6" swath with initial slug of precip on Tuesday across IA/IL (Chi metro included) Secondary defo area tries to get going with main system later Wednesday and leads to highest totals in SW MI of 8-12" wouldn't say i'm optimistic but i don't hate where we sit 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 2 hours ago, Hoosier said: Anything can go wrong this far out but as tsnow said in the first post, a more strung out/less phased outcome can still be a decent storm for somebody. On the other end, you see what happens when there's more phasing like the 12z Canadian. Early take... I don't expect a clean snow event around here. 2-part scenario is how we roll this winter. The key question is whether we can get the 2nd wave of energy to coincide with proper cold air feed and pull it south into a strengthening SLP. Jan 11-12 was an utter FAIL in getting the cold far enough south (regardless of moisture stealing to our south) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: wouldn't say i'm optimistic but i don't hate where we sit 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 3 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: The pattern isn't really shifting to anything too different. We are basically reverting back to the pattern we had about 2 weeks ago. Ofc nothing but cyber-wx is/has shifted at this point. I'll acknowledge a legit shift when a SLP tracks S/SE of mby and (as Hoosier said) produces a non-mix contaminated event around here. Two weeks ago didn't do that. My orig post was looking beyond just next week to the potential the cold finally presses to an EC storm track. Hopefully that does not happen, or at least delays enough to deliver some good systems for our Sub before it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 I would really hate to see this one go north for me. I wish there was a way we could all get in on a decent storm... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Good news for this event: Pivotal added the UKMET 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 4 hours ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Good news for this event: Pivotal added the UKMET Bad news, it only goes out to h144. Won't be an addition to the d6+ models unfortunately. We need something in that longer range to counter the "G" squad of models and their unstable ways 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Oh look, the GFS shifted north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 10 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Oh look, the GFS shifted north. Sticking with it's single amped wave and north game plan. Let's see if it's a legit trend. Nothing in this garbage bag winter could surprise me less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIstorm97 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Ride the GFS since it’s showing a rainer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 10 hours ago, RogueWaves said: Sticking with it's single amped wave and north game plan. Let's see if it's a legit trend. Nothing in this garbage bag winter could surprise me less Too far out to be living and dying 2with each model run. 6z was better. Who knows what 12z will be. Seems like a clipperless winter with a handful of good snowstorms. Hopefully this is one of the storms lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Just now, michsnowfreak said: Too far out to be living and dying 2with each model run. 6z was better. Who knows what 12z will be. Seems like a clipperless winter with a handful of good snowstorms. Hopefully this is one of the storms lol Yep. At this point I remain happy that there is some run to run consistency of a storm. In the old days, we would be approaching the "storm disappear" cycle. Back when the models were only moderate garbage. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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