RDRY Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 The 0z CMC had a closed low near the benchmark at 108 (even though it escaped east) -- this run has it open and further east. This run is worse. Am I wrong? I'm probably wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 GEFS only marginally improved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: At this point, not sure a good 12z euro run will give us any more confidence that it’s coming. Could be another day or two before we close the book or drool all over it. This one may need more time then originally thought, A lot to resolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just now, dryslot said: This one may need more time then originally thought, A lot to resolve. Certainly more than I did. I just can’t see computers simulating this cluster F of sw’s properly until they’re over the midwest...even then, could be a trick or two left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: This one may need more time then originally thought, A lot to resolve. Well, I'm doing First Call tonight, anyway....I mean, we're 72 hours out. This should be fun. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 51 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It seems to be the whole ball of wax on this this thing - Just a quick critique - you mentioned earlier that the N/stream involvement didn't seem very plausible to you "because the flow is tipping progressive" - or words to that affect. I don't see how/why 'progressive' characteristic of the total flow behavior is a logical delimiter there. Progressive happens in either stream...it's just a tendency for r-wave rollouts to move actively west-toward east at mid latitudes..which can be endemic to either. That said, "phasing" per se is harder - not so much because it can't happen, but... because the models are not sophisticated enough to handle the narrowing margins for error down to finite scales, required to correctly assess whether there is syncing mechanics in the stream spacing and so forth. It's a bit advanced...but, it really has to do with the coriolis forcing in three-D. 2Ω (v sinφ - w cosφ), -2Ωu sinφ, and 2Ωu cosφ, which handles the west to east in U, north south in V and W of course being up down. Anyway, as these are combined, if any one exceeds a critical value/threshold ...the velocity of the system overwhelms the forcing and the system doesn't "feel" the exertion to rotate...or 'curve' as much. That's why fast flow tends to curve less ... ? It doesn't mean it curves none - it curves less...These factor work out to decimal forcing when you put in values for latitude and wind velocity. So, you have to do all that at the latitude, per wind and so forth, at different levels...to get to a "syncing" phase... That's why these thing are tougher to phase at higher speeds... And, it is why the models have been tending to correct phasing toward the upper/outer Maritimes ...when they were first doing so closer to home when they were in the extended. It's like it's getting better data into the f term and than the field corrects to a phasing further down stream because the curvature forcing could not take place in time to get us here. These runs are trying to over come that by digging the N-stream sort of calving west against the eastern slope of the western ridge ... as the ridge is pressing eastward in the progressive pattern no less. Oy. Lot of juggling here. This behavior might try to phase things soon...mainly because that digging further west earlier on. Increasing some space in which to phase is like giving some time back the system. I should have been clearer...I was referring to the idea that phasing is harder. I've always wondered something about the Coriolis forcing and there is another equation or two (think one of them is the vorticity equation) but when you do scale analysis you "negate" terms which have a larger scale of magnitude b/c it is said that term is "negligible"...I wonder if even know its negligible if it actually still holds some degree of importance and perhaps if incorporated into these equations would maybe help with accuracy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Certainly more than I did. I just can’t see computers simulating this cluster F of sw’s properly until they’re over the midwest...even then, could be a trick or two left. There scratching their mother boards like we are our heads.............. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, I'm doing First Call tonight, anyway....I mean, we're 72 hours out. This should be fun. Snows to the Canadian border, 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Snows to the Canadian border, yeah Nova Scotia lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, I'm doing First Call tonight, anyway....I mean, we're 72 hours out. This should be fun. If it verifies .........new toys for your daughter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Some amped up gefs Hopefully the models bring back the big storm that they showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just now, 512high said: If it verifies .........new toys for your daughter! Neither of us even know what my forecast is yet 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Neither of us even know what my forecast is yet The Doctor should be able to help. He's in the house now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: The Doctor should be able to help. He's in the house now. The doctor isn't very professional and I may seek another physician if he keeps queefing in my face and changing the prescription. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: The doctor isn't very professional and I may seek another physician if he keeps queefing in my face and changing the prescription. sounds to me like you're the doctor...and doing the exam wrong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just now, weatherwiz said: sounds to me like you're the doctor...and doing the exam wrong Maybe he's probing in the wrong area? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 This ultimate solution may end up completely different, and in a slightly later time frame than what we have been thinking all along...I mean with all these Vorts all over the place the models don't know which vort to key on and how they interact yet with each other, if at all?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 I would love me some blizzard....but maybe I'll settle for a single post from WinterWolf that is not of an interrogative nature?? Maybe one question mark instead of two? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 52 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: All positives today. Snow coming for the pessimists Buffoon 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 The Weather Channel says "No Chance" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 First post since Dec 2... haven't seen any compelling threats + crazy busy at work... thanks for great discussion here by the usual players as always. But I'm more on guard for a surprise on this one... good H5 setup, and conducive to an abrupt jump rather than gradual evolution of solutions. If all you had was this H5 map, you'd anticipate cyclogenesis ~ under that green circle... the trough is tilting nearly neutral, the flow is not compressed and there's room: Instead 24 hrs earlier this lead energy is stealing the show, purple circle: I know overwhelming majority of OP and ENS guidance focuses on that lead energy shunting this well OTS, while the lagging stronger SWs end up doing nothing, but I'd remain vigilant for a surprise on this one, at least through 12z Thursday guidance. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I would love me some blizzard....but maybe I'll settle for a single post from WinterWolf that is not of an interrogative nature?? Maybe one question mark instead of two? wut? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, its 4th and 12 w no TOs left And you have the ball on your own 4-yard line. Smart fans walk to the exits to beat the traffic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just now, moneypitmike said: And you have the ball on your own 4-yard line. Smart fans walk to the exits to beat the traffic Unless the N stream is Tom Brady.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Unless the N stream is Tom Brady.... Or Ryan Fitzpatrick in Week 17 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just now, SouthCoastMA said: Or Ryan Fitzpatrick in Week 17 Maybe the lead SW is stealing signs... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Euro may be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 12z Euro going to be better with the Northern stream this run from 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2020 Author Share Posted January 29, 2020 Euro looks better through 60. It dumped that trailing energy back south so the northern might be able to grab the lead shortwave. That’s a good trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just now, weathafella said: Euro may be interesting. Down she digs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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