Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Everyone will get snow.. It seems some are thinking no snow even with big amounts offshore .. lol. All of SNE sees snow which has been the point the whole time. Not some massive storm . Cosgrove yells deal 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Mark Bellhorn up with the bases loaded 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 The GFS is digging that northern s/w more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just now, dendrite said: The GFS is digging that northern s/w more. May tickle closer but nothing wholesale to arouse the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 I give Ray credit. First step is admitting you toss around kids toys in anger. Will has avoided admitting as much, but I do wonder how much violence was committed in his house hold after the 00z runs last night. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: I give Ray credit. First step is admitting you toss around kids toys in anger. Will has avoided admitting as much, but I do wonder how much violence was committed in his house hold after the 00z runs last night. Told him to go shovel the driveway even though their was no snow to shovel. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Definitely closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Its a baby step improvement, No wheres near where it needs to be but that northern stream did what we want it to do this run, Dig further south, Just need it to start sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Marginal improvement at 500mb. I do like what I'm seeing over the GLs. Looks like the GFS scored a BB, so next batter is up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 More amped thru 78 but similar positioning to 6z (mslp) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just now, dryslot said: Its a baby step improvement, No wheres near where it needs to be but that northern stream did what we want it to do this run, Just need it to start sooner. Maybe we can take a magic eraser to the lead shart? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 It escapes before the digging northern stream can draw it closer. But seems pretty close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Wow that's a substantial difference..this northern stream is really giving the models a workout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just now, weatherwiz said: Wow that's a substantial difference..this northern stream is really giving the models a workout Yeah, GFS only dropped the missile 1/2 way (~200mi) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 2 strong shortwaves down in the SE struggling to phase while a weak, shredded POS carries our sfc reflection well downstream of the strong vorts. If only looking at H5 you'd almost think the main show would be later and coming out of the SE as the longwave trough swings out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Wow that's a substantial difference..this northern stream is really giving the models a workout It's not even remotely similar to 6z lol. It's almost comical. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said: I think we said three or four days ago that we wouldn’t know anything until the overnight Wednesday and 12 Z Thursday runs. Because of when things would be well sampled. That’s why we didn’t get invested right? I know I didn’t. By 130 this afternoon we’ll see what this looks like ...I'm not so sure the 'sampling shadow' is as much a factor in any uncertainty...as it was 20 years ago. Hell, even 10 years ago there were times where system morphology would take place down stream over the continent, after S/W's started nosing into the physical sounding regions out west. But the assimilation technology has gotten really pretty sophisticated. We'll see. It could still be factorable .. I just have not noticed in recent years very glaring examples of correction behavior in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Everyone will get snow.. It seems some are thinking no snow even with big amounts offshore .. lol. All of SNE sees snow which has been the point the whole time. Not some massive storm . Cosgrove yells deal It's been a wild week of emotions for you. You came out with the reverse psychology negativity first and when that didn't work you went right into full weenie mode. Now you're in desperation denial mode as you slowly sink with the Titanic band. If you need to talk let me know. Tip may be able to help too. 3 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 1 minute ago, DotRat_Wx said: It's not even remotely similar to 6z lol. It's almost comical. Its is comical, But the end result was similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: 2 strong shortwaves down in the SE struggling to phase while a weak, shredded POS carries our sfc reflection well downstream of the strong vorts. If only looking at H5 you'd almost think the main show would be later and coming out of the SE as the longwave trough swings out. It seems like the northern stream is trying to phase with multiple shortwaves and the models are having a hard time which one is the one. The puzzle pieces are starting to show their cards and now the next 2 days will need to decide their results. Just a patient game of cat and mouse. 1 minute ago, DotRat_Wx said: It's not even remotely similar to 6z lol. It's almost comical. It is very comical and very complicated. Two major shortwaves over the southern US and the pattern needs to decide which one phases. The GFS shows a colder scenario, now we just need the earlier phase for our storm to tap that cold and explode closer to the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just now, dendrite said: It's been a wild week of emotions for you. You came out with the reverse psychology negativity first and when that didn't work you went right into full weenie mode. Now you're in desperation denial mode as you slowly sink with the Titanic band. If you need to talk let me know. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Everyone will get snow.. It seems some are thinking no snow even with big amounts offshore .. lol. All of SNE sees snow which has been the point the whole time. Not some massive storm . Cosgrove yells deal OMG....blizz24 took over DIT's account. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HimoorWx Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 34 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: great, the 8th spot up with 2 on and 2 out..... Now batting . . . Mario Mendoza . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Small improvement on the gfs. I hate to still be in on this threat but we’re close enough here where a small improvement here or there could mean some snow. Just can’t look away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 I just don't see how that 5h brings a snowstorm to SNE....... It doesn't add up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just looked at the 06z GEFS and there is a clear group of the ensemble to the left of the mean. Let's see what 12z brings. We've seen baby steps since 00z on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 12 minutes ago, dendrite said: It's been a wild week of emotions for you. You came out with the reverse psychology negativity first and when that didn't work you went right into full weenie mode. Now you're in desperation denial mode as you slowly sink with the Titanic band. If you need to talk let me know. Tip may be able to help too. LMAO...this is just too funny, But So True. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 if 2 out of 4 of the bigger models were showing a hit and the GFS was lagging at this time, I could see why it would be worth waiting for the GFS to come on board. At this point we have a graze at best out of any of them and feel like that is the only upside at this point, a grazing with a dusting to maybe an inch. It sort of reminds me of the system a few weeks ago that ended up giving CT a dusting to an inch when it seemed like it was going to swing and miss totally....guess we shall see, still 72+ hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 GGEM showing the same improvement from the northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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