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Feb 1-2 storm threat


ORH_wxman
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Just now, CoastalWx said:

I give Ray credit. First step is admitting you toss around kids toys in anger. Will has avoided admitting as much, but I do wonder how much violence was committed in his house hold after the 00z runs last night. 

Told him to go shovel the driveway even though their was no snow to shovel.

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2 strong shortwaves down in the SE struggling to phase while a weak, shredded POS carries our sfc reflection well downstream of the strong vorts. If only looking at H5 you'd almost think the main show would be later and coming out of the SE as the longwave trough swings out.

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1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said:

I think we said three or four days ago that we wouldn’t know anything until the overnight Wednesday and 12 Z Thursday runs. Because of when things would be well sampled.  That’s why we didn’t get invested right? I know I didn’t. By 130 this afternoon we’ll see what this looks like

...I'm not so sure the 'sampling shadow' is as much a factor in any uncertainty...as it was 20 years ago. Hell, even 10 years ago there were times where system morphology would take place down stream over the continent, after S/W's started nosing into the physical sounding regions out west.  But the assimilation technology has gotten really pretty sophisticated.

We'll see.  It could still be factorable .. I just have not noticed in recent years very glaring examples of correction behavior in that regard. 

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22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Everyone will get snow.. It seems some are thinking no snow even with big amounts offshore .. lol. All of SNE sees snow which has been the point the whole time. Not some massive storm . Cosgrove yells deal 

It's been a wild week of emotions for you. You came out with the reverse psychology negativity first and when that didn't work you went right into full weenie mode. Now you're in desperation denial mode as you slowly sink with the Titanic band. If you need to talk let me know. Tip may be able to help too.

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4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

2 strong shortwaves down in the SE struggling to phase while a weak, shredded POS carries our sfc reflection well downstream of the strong vorts. If only looking at H5 you'd almost think the main show would be later and coming out of the SE as the longwave trough swings out.

It seems like the northern stream is trying to phase with multiple shortwaves and the models are having a hard time which one is the one.  The puzzle pieces are starting to show their cards and now the next 2 days will need to decide their results.  Just a patient game of cat and mouse.

1 minute ago, DotRat_Wx said:

It's not even remotely similar to 6z lol. It's almost comical. 

It is very comical and very complicated.  Two major shortwaves over the southern US and the pattern needs to decide which one phases.  The GFS shows a colder scenario, now we just need the earlier phase for our storm to tap that cold and explode closer to the benchmark.

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Just now, dendrite said:

It's been a wild week of emotions for you. You came out with the reverse psychology negativity first and when that didn't work you went right into full weenie mode. Now you're in desperation denial mode as you slowly sink with the Titanic band. If you need to talk let me know.

DisguisedEqualDwarfrabbit-size_restricte

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12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It's been a wild week of emotions for you. You came out with the reverse psychology negativity first and when that didn't work you went right into full weenie mode. Now you're in desperation denial mode as you slowly sink with the Titanic band. If you need to talk let me know. Tip may be able to help too.

LMAO...this is just too funny, But So True.  

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if 2 out of 4 of the bigger models were showing a hit and the GFS was lagging at this time, I could see why it would be worth waiting for the GFS to come on board. At this point we have a graze at best out of any of them and feel like that is the only upside at this point, a grazing with a dusting to maybe an inch. It sort of reminds me of the system a few weeks ago that ended up giving CT a dusting to an inch when it seemed like it was going to swing and miss totally....guess we shall see, still 72+ hrs out.

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