Hoth Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Winter of yore continues. I realize it isn't February yet, but I'm starting to yearn for spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just now, weatherwiz said: At this juncture I highly doubt we're getting any assistance from the northern stream...which never seemed highly likely anyways. The flow is just too progressive. Sure there have been hints at more northern stream involvement...but they've been just that...hints. There was never any major support or backing from this possibility outside of "if x happens then y will occur". I think that 18z EPS at like 72 hrs lead was major support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think that 18z EPS at like 72 hrs lead was major support. Yeah... that’s a gag for that model. No spin needed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 At hour 60, the NAM is at least trying to sync the main precip with the northern energy, but then it escapes and jumps to a low off South Carolina at 63 -- which is game over. I suppose there's still time for the models to follow through with that initial linkage, but it's running out fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 If that southern stream is going to be stubborn to exit stage right, we'll need the northern stream to drop into the backside of all that hot mess sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think that 18z EPS at like 72 hrs lead was major support. but wasn't it only one run? The one thing which has been constant this entire week of tracking was the flow was going to be progressive and when that's the case it's going to be very difficult to get an end result of northern stream assistance. Sometimes the gun gets jumped too quickly on just one model run...whether it be an OP or EPS. For example, if all of a sudden the EPS switched tunes next week everyone would start jumping towards cold/snow b/c this one run showed it...then after the EPS jumps back from this idea instead of realizing it was a blip everyone still acts as if there was hope b/c this one run said so 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Looking at the vort level on the 12z NAM, it's almost as if energy from the northern stream is splitting..one piece reenergizing the southern energy..while the other just heads east and refuses to dig. Not sure how likely that is..but not gonna cut it either way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 I'll be honest- minus all the sarcasm. I don't see how this works at 5h. It just doesn't. Looks good for Nova Scotia. Too many cooks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 16 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: but wasn't it only one run? The one thing which has been constant this entire week of tracking was the flow was going to be progressive and when that's the case it's going to be very difficult to get an end result of northern stream assistance. Sometimes the gun gets jumped too quickly on just one model run...whether it be an OP or EPS. For example, if all of a sudden the EPS switched tunes next week everyone would start jumping towards cold/snow b/c this one run showed it...then after the EPS jumps back from this idea instead of realizing it was a blip everyone still acts as if there was hope b/c this one run said so Yes, which why I awaited confirmation that never came at 00z prior to jumping in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes, which why I awaited confirmation that never came at 00z prior to jumping in. If only more were as level headed as you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 13 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: Looking at the vort level on the 12z NAM, it's almost as if energy from the northern stream is splitting..one piece reenergizing the southern energy..while the other just heads east and refuses to dig. Not sure how likely that is..but not gonna cut it either way Pretty much all the models have been doing it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Not worth much but h5 considerably better on everyone's favorite ICON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just now, weatherwiz said: If only more were as level headed as you I decide to be negative or positive depending on how my work day is going. Since our emotion toward storms doesn't matter sh*t anyways. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just now, weatherwiz said: If only more were as level headed as you BS...the board doesn't see me breaking my infant daughter's toys when I throw them in anger...I just try not to clutter the thread with the same rhea that I used to lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: BS...the board doesn't see me breaking my infant daughter's toys when I throw them in anger...I just try not to clutter the thread with the same rhea that I used to lol Old habits die hard, I've passed all that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 ICON ticked a but better with trough from the 06z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: ICON ticked a but better with trough from the 06z run. Trough much better imo, surface still Bermuda'd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFRI Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 3 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: I decide to be negative or positive depending on how my work day is going. Since our emotion toward storms doesn't matter sh*t anyways. Some seem to use emotion as their forecasting method. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just now, DFRI said: Some seem to use emotion as their forecasting method. Especially those near 1000' west of Union and east of BDL 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 We just don't need to see anymore regression in the models or this will be doneski even for eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just now, dryslot said: We just don't need to see anymore regression in the models or this will be doneski even for eastern areas. Yea, its 4th and 12 w no TOs left 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just now, dryslot said: We just don't need to see anymore regression in the models or this will be doneski even for eastern areas. Correct. Annoying that the lead shit is preventing this all from being a pretty big storm for many, many more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: Correct. Annoying that the lead shit is preventing this all from being a pretty big storm for many, many more. If we can continue the better trends and get thru today, Then by tomorrow, If we don't see anymore improvements, Then i think we will have our outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Model #3 in the batters box. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 7 minutes ago, dryslot said: If we can continue the better trends and get thru today, Then by tomorrow, If we don't see anymore improvements, Then i think we will have our outcome. Everytime we gain yardage, we are sacked on the next down..00z was a loss of 10 yards. I don't think that this event will be a player on Suber Bowl Sunday lol I wish the n stream could tackle that lead southern turd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Model #3 in the batters box. great, the 8th spot up with 2 on and 2 out..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Everytime we gain yardage, we are sacked on the next down..00z was a loss of 10 yards. I don't this event will be a player on Suber Bowl Sunday lol I wish the n stream could tackle that lead southern turd. That's the one that been lowering the heights out ahead of our s/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Everytime we gain yardage, we are sacked on the next down..00z was a loss of 10 yards. I don't this event will be a player on Suber Bowl Sunday lol I wish the n stream could tackle that lead southern turd. I was thinking of a bunker buster missile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Model #3 in the batters box. The GFS is ready for the walkoff 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 21 minutes ago, dryslot said: Old habits die hard, I've passed all that. Because your kids are grown and out of the house? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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