weathafella Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just now, WinterWolf said: If the trend is our friend, then yes there is a tad more time. But once it deviates in the negative direction....she "Gone" pal. And If 12z doesn't improve at all, pack it in unless you're Jimmy's next door Neighbor to the East of him. Premature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 12 hours ago, Chrisrotary12 said: I was just beginning to make plans for Superbowl Sunday.........have to try to remember: one is an aberration, two is a coincidence, three is a trend. Lets wake up tomorrow with the EPS looking this good. Looks like 18z EPS was an aberration. Pretty good model agreement from overnight runs. Two of the pieces of energy are still over the northern Pacific south of Alaska if I follow them backwards correctly. There may still be hope......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: If the trend is our friend, then yes there is a tad more time. But once it deviates in the negative direction....she "Gone" pal. And If 12z doesn't improve at all, pack it in unless you're Jimmy's next door Neighbor to the East of him. I knew you'd bite...lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Looking at the 6z EPS, there were still about 7 or 8 big impact members remaining. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I knew you'd bite...lol I know his drill now...just conversing and commenting on the modeling. I have my ideas and he has his(changeable)ideas. Sure would be nice to see 12z come back some and start heading definitively toward something impactful for most of the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 i feel a bit optimistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: I know his drill now...just conversing and commenting on the modeling. I have my ideas and he has his(changeable)ideas. Sure would be nice to see 12z come back some and start heading definitively toward something impactful for most of the forum. Ordinarily, I would have been all in after the 18z EPS, but something told me to await confirmation at 00z....sure enough. This situation is so volatile... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I knew you'd bite...lol No pun intended. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Ordinarily, I would have been all in after the 18z EPS, but something told to await confirmation at 00z....sure enough. This situation is so volatile... Would've been easier to toss if the EPS members weren't so zonked too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just now, SouthCoastMA said: Would've been easier to toss if the EPS members weren't so zonked too. Yes...This is very true. EPS went all in too so that gave some more credence to the OP's look. But it Flipped/Flopped on us...dam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 4 minutes ago, correnjim1 said: i feel a bit optimistic I actually don't. But I hope you're feeling is more accurate than mine lol. Be good to get a decent Warning event for the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 15 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: Looking at the 6z EPS, there were still about 7 or 8 big impact members remaining. Is the mean throwing any precip back into our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 NAM is a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Nam looks improved at h5 thru 51 fwiw. We grasp at straws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Is the mean throwing any precip back into our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 lol I guess not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: NAM is a disaster. Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Nam looks improved at h5 thru 51 fwiw. We grasp at straws. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just now, CoastalWx said: NAM is a disaster. This is probably toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Ordinarily, I would have been all in after the 18z EPS, but something told me to await confirmation at 00z....sure enough. This situation is so volatile... What was my post before 00z last night? I said I'd wait to see what 00z showed before starting a thread. I'm not writing this off at all. Us SEMA'ers are in a better spot for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 13 hours ago, dryslot said: Next few cycles should start to tell the tale, We are inside 4 days now so there should be some changes coming up on guidance as energy comes on shore out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 12z Nam tried to make this an all southern stream event, Welcome to two days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 I think we said three or four days ago that we wouldn’t know anything until the overnight Wednesday and 12 Z Thursday runs. Because of when things would be well sampled. That’s why we didn’t get invested right? I know I didn’t. By 130 this afternoon we’ll see what this looks like 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 This has been so exhausting, however, love the chase............. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 That Southern stream buck shot of energy is back to mucking this up. It needs to get the hell out of the way so the northern stream can amplify.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is probably toast. Most likely The pacific looked good last weekend when the euro and cmc showed a big hit. Since then , the flow has become faster . Everything is going wrong this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 1 minute ago, dryslot said: 12z Nam tried to make this an all southern stream event, Welcome to two days ago. Northern stream was gross and southern stream was more solidified. Net result was a turd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 I just don't believe in the s stream. I wish it would just piss off and we try pure n stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 1 minute ago, dryslot said: 12z Nam tried to make this an all southern stream event, Welcome to two days ago. It went to crap post 57hr. Too many sw’s zooming by instead of digging and curling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 3 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: Yeah the surface was awful, despite 50 Northern stream was gross and southern stream was better. Net result was a turd We need the northern stream s/w to go visit the bayou. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 At this juncture I highly doubt we're getting any assistance from the northern stream...which never seemed highly likely anyways. The flow is just too progressive. Sure there have been hints at more northern stream involvement...but they've been just that...hints. There was never any major support or backing from this possibility outside of "if x happens then y will occur". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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