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Feb 1-2 storm threat


ORH_wxman
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1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Yeah, torching cutters seem to become more rare as we get deeper into winter. Most of the record high mins at CON for Feb are U30s or L40s. The first half of Jan has some U40s and 50s as we're still dealing with the seasonal lag from the warm season.

It would be interesting to look that up purely empirically speaking but I feel like that is correct too. The record high mins sort of back that up. 

I’m pretty sure the PJ as at a nadir in latitude as well during February which also backs up the “fewer cutters” idea. 

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22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Need to see some hint of pattern change and we’re just not seeing that 

Exactly, and the other thing working against us is days are getting longer and the sun is higher in the sky. In 4 weeks it will pretty much be over  except for a isolated dump that will quickly melt unless it is unseasonably cold and we have a lot of cloud cover.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

A coating and 40F doesn't care what month it is. 

 

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

February is the best month of winter. Take up a winter sport

Both of these.  
 

Man DIT is ready for the padded room. 
 

Feb gives us the most snow, and March more snow than December..and he’s talking about a Trace melting in the sun on February 1st..?  it would melt on December 21st just as easy.  
 

Guy definitely needs a winter hobby other than watching models on a weather forum.  

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12 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

As putrid as this winter has been, we all know February can be a big month. That’s why it’s so hard to punt. Keep the 70 degree days at bay and most decently rational winter weenies won’t start longing for spring until March. 

Great points.  Let’s get Us some storms dammit! 

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Hey could be worse. Models had me getting close to a foot or more for almost an entire week lead time only to start folding inside 48hrs. Euro was the last to pack up the tent too. Inside 30hrs. Terrible modeling of this system. I’ll be lucky to score an inch. Onward and upward.


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2 minutes ago, Hazey said:

Hey could be worse. Models had me getting close to a foot or more for almost an entire week lead time only to start folding inside 48hrs. Euro was the last to pack up the tent too. Inside 30hrs. Terrible modeling of this system. I’ll be lucky to score an inch. Onward and upward.


.yeap that's what hurts the most.. if it didnt have any of big accumulations woudlnt be so upset 

 

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1 hour ago, Hazey said:

1.5” final. Grass is covered again. YYT getting the goods now but they’ll pay the price later when it milds up and flips to rain. Gander and points west will be the place to be.


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Yeah it seemed pretty close to those totals near Dartmouth Crossing as I saw today at Costco, as for me 0.0 with still patchy grass and snow.  With the good news we are not Southern New England and I am sure we will get another one or two storms of at least 10 cm this season.

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Yeah it seemed pretty close to those totals near Dartmouth Crossing as I saw today at Costco, as for me 0.0 with still patchy grass and snow.  With the good news we are not Southern New England and I am sure we will get another one or two storms of at least 10 cm this season.

Lots of time left. All be surprised if we don’t see another biggie or two. I actually like this winter. The chances are there, we just are barely missing. Better than last year where every storm went west of us and we had no chance. I’ll roll the dice with this pattern. Meanwhile I’ll put this debacle storm in the rear view mirror. Doubt the models will do this poor on a system again.
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2 hours ago, OSUmetstud said:

This you?
UACN01 CYQX 021706
QX
UUA /OV 4828N04750W /TM 1655 /FL390 /TP A332 /TB SEV /RM LASTED 20
SEC

I don’t know the meaning of all those letters and numbers. It would’ve been around 1030 this morning Eastern time when I passed near St. John’s.  It was a virgin flight from Bos.  I fly all the time so I’m used to some turbulence but this was particularly rough I would say in my experience may be an eight 8 1/2 on a scale of 1 to 10. The flight attendant, when I talked to her, said it was pretty severe. It wasn’t scary though, actually most of the danger to planes doesn’t come from turbulence Although it isn’t very pleasant LOL. There’s always alcohol on a Xanax you know

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