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Feb 1-2 storm threat


ORH_wxman
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1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Wow..euro used to never do crap like this.  What the heck is up/happened with that model?  
 

I guess Berg won’t have to wear the Maga hat to work on Monday after all.  

Well, it was four days out, and we never had off our runs before with the euro. 

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The little low that the models have ahead of the coastal is causing a weakness in the trough for the main low which allows the storm to escape without coming up the coast.  Combine that with some left over energy in the west and also a progressive trough and you will have yourself a non event.

 

I think it is over but you never know  with all these vorts flying down .

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Just now, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

People fell HARD for the rouge EURO run. Morning guidance is fish food. I’ll give it today and tomorrow... 0z EURO H5 looked like it wanted to come together, it’s close. Yada, yada, yada. I’m starting to see the forest through the trees with this one.

I don’t believe many fell for it, but it did drive home the point this had some potential ...would have been weighted more as an option if the euro had continuity at 0z. 

When the outcomes are so drastically different every 6 hours , seeing something like the 18 EPS , doesn’t really do much for me ...other than say the OP’s idea was solid and that is an option on how to get it done but certainly if you took it as likely ...then you don’t follow weather objectively 

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3 minutes ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

People fell HARD for the rouge EURO run. Morning guidance is fish food. I’ll give it today and tomorrow... 0z EURO H5 looked like it wanted to come together, it’s close. Yada, yada, yada. I’m starting to see the forest through the trees with this one.

The Ssturday and Sunday runs of the CMC and Euro were the ones that got all the weenies in a trap.

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Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I don’t believe many fell for it, but it did drive home the point this had some potential ...would have been weighted more as an option if the euro had continuity at 0z. 

When the outcomes are so drastically different every 6 hours , seeing something like the 18 EPS , doesn’t really do much for me ...other than say the OP’s idea was solid and that is an option on how to get it done but certainly if you took it as likely ...then you don’t follow weather objectively 

The ridge was modeled to be good for this upcoming storm but of course things are going wrong.

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