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Feb 1-2 storm threat


ORH_wxman
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14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

You guys blowing up James for his emotional weenie posts and unpinning,  might be what this threat needed to give the south coast a couple of inches lol. Nammy suite actually gives James 2 to 4

6z nam maybe but 12z nam is OTC for Ack and the hi-res is less than an inch of snow 

James was calling for 2’ again “just offshore “ . It’s like Bruce schwoegler forecasting on bath salts or crank.

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14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

You guys blowing up James for his emotional weenie posts and unpinning,  might be what this threat needed to give the south coast a couple of inches lol. Nammy suite actually gives James 2 to 4

That's not the storm though...just a weak inv trough ahead of the approaching northern vort.

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17 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

6z nam maybe but 12z nam is OTC for Ack and the hi-res is less than an inch of snow 

James was calling for 2’ again “just offshore “ . It’s like Bruce schwoegler forecasting on bath salts or crank.

Lol James being James. I look forward to my 6Z Euro Pva snow

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1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

6z nam maybe but 12z nam is OTC for Ack and the hi-res is less than an inch of snow 

James was calling for 2’ again “just offshore “ . It’s like Bruce schwoegler forecasting on bath salts or crank.

Is "Crank" the new hot drug now?  LOL.

 

Crank was a movie I believe with that British Bald headed actor...Jason Statham.

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1 minute ago, Hazey said:

Inside 36hrs too. Horrendous failure.

We'll see how much the models will fail for next weeks weather. I have 0 confidence in any model now. 

Yeah i knew it was an outlier when preparing the forecast today, but I  figured it wouldn't shift that much given the ensembles were there too. it basically just folded it's previous three runs and went with the other guidance. 

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4 hours ago, Hazey said:

The whole argument that the pattern is too complex and giving the models trouble is BS imo. What, like there hasn't been a complex or even more complex pattern in the past?. Here's hoping that next winter we can smooth out these whole sale changes, especially inside 84 hrs. We're inside 24hrs now and there is still no consistency. Forecast models have 1"- 12" for my hood...lol

Disagree...there are certain patterns in which the models have a difficult time handling. It's even been mentioned in forecast discussions before when something like this is the case. The more pieces which are introduced into the forecast the more complex the result becomes and the higher the likelihood for inconsistencies and drastic changes.

4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I remember in the Feb 2006 blizzard, the old ETA totally whiffed us on the 06z run the night before...and I mean total whiff like northwest of I-95. Might be one of the worst 12-18 hour forecasts I've ever seen....very next run it was back to hitting us with 10-20 inches.

I bet nobody remembers the Euro going way east before 12/9/05 (probably because they didn't have the fancy QPF graphics and clown maps they have now).

 

Even slightly more recently, I feel like everyone has forgotten some of those very hard trends northward on the SWFEs of 2007 to 2009 in the final 48h....maybe NYC weenies remember better....they got taken out of the snow frequently on those.

I remember this pretty well surprisingly. That was a shock beyond belief. 

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