TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Similar move on the 00z gfs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Similar move on the 00z gfs.. So what’s it showing for you guys...an inch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 It’s like the models don’t know which s/w to hang their hat on. Still some changes to be had I think. Hopefully good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shanemacdonald23 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 The 0z now has 2 centers off nova Scotia coast brings rain for all what a mess . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rnaude241 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Bump West on the CMC as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 1”, no inch, early 00z runs have crept into this area with the precip shield from that lead low. My First Call may work out....hedged towards a bump west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 2 minutes ago, rnaude241 said: Bump West on the CMC as well. Yup... that gets west of Boston. Solid west bump on all models so far at 00z.... still like 30-36 hours away. There is some decent precip lurking if we can bump west a bit more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: My First Call may work out....hedged towards a bump west. It’s probably trivial in the end, but clearly something changed to have everything pretty uniformly move west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 12 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: It’s probably trivial in the end, but clearly something changed to have everything pretty uniformly move west Well, I forecasted trivial....upwards of an inch for cape and se MA with an upwards of 2" bullseye interior se MA near Taunton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ogmios Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 All westward movements are now misses again , clearly the writing is on the wall on this one. So it it is time to move on and punt the football towards the cutters that the models want to predict. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ogmios said: All westward movements are now misses again , clearly the writing is on the wall on this one. So it it is time to move on and punt the football towards the cutters that the models want to predict. You should probably integrate the euro and the euro ensemble into your forecast process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 6z laughs at 00z. We tried to tell 'em. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 6z laughs at 00z. We tried to tell 'em. As I said... no expectations. The models moved west at 00z and moved back East at 6z. It is what it is. Im not going to whine about missing a few inches of slop in late January, just Discussing possible outcomes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: As I said... no expectations. The models moved west at 00z and moved back East at 6z. It is what it is. Im not going to whine about missing a few inches of slop in late January, just Discussing possible outcomes The Euro never went west. Probably time to unpin this failure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Just now, dendrite said: The Euro never went west. Probably time to unpin this failure. Meh... everything else did. The euro has blown just as bad if not worse than everything else for this “threat”, so the other models moving was interesting. Obviously with the shift back at 6z it was just a head fake. And yeah.... time to punt this one to the moon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 38 minutes ago, dendrite said: The Euro never went west. Probably time to unpin this failure. 6 z Euro has 1 to 2 inches across Ct and RI Sat night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Idk. 00z had qpf but the ptype on pivotal was rain. Not sure what they would have had for 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Looks like that snow is from the s/w and separate from the storm itself. Maybe Kev can grab an inch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Looks like that snow is from the s/w and separate from the storm itself. Maybe Kev can grab an inch? his own 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Some models still advertising precip getting into se areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Some models still advertising precip getting into se areas It's not even from the low. Looks like some guidance curls that s/w enough to help generate some precip. That's more likely vs any precip from that low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Why do the models lately...especially with the last couple storms(this one has been especially bad with this flip flopping) show a jump in one direction, only to go back the other way so drastically the very next run? And at very short lead times. IMO this is very odd, and not what used to happen in most cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Has the big west trend happened yet? Asking for a friend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Just now, WinterWolf said: Why do the models lately...especially with the last couple storms(this one has been especially bad with this flip flopping) show a jump in one direction, only to go back the other way so drastically the very next run? And at very short lead times. IMO this is very odd, and not what used to happen in most cases. I share the same thoughts. Perhaps it's just related to just how complex the pattern is with so much moving pieces. There are other issues which I hypothesize as well (mentioned them a few times over the past few weeks) but with pretty much zero background in model development and how all that works...my hypotheses has little merit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 1 minute ago, Rtd208 said: Has the big west trend happened yet? Asking for a friend. They always come NW! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 The whole argument that the pattern is too complex and giving the models trouble is BS imo. What, like there hasn't been a complex or even more complex pattern in the past?. Here's hoping that next winter we can smooth out these whole sale changes, especially inside 84 hrs. We're inside 24hrs now and there is still no consistency. Forecast models have 1"- 12" for my hood...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2020 Author Share Posted January 31, 2020 22 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Why do the models lately...especially with the last couple storms(this one has been especially bad with this flip flopping) show a jump in one direction, only to go back the other way so drastically the very next run? And at very short lead times. IMO this is very odd, and not what used to happen in most cases. Models used to be worse with flip-flopping IMHO....we see more gradual trends now than we did a decade to two decades ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 I wish we could go back to the models from 15-20 years ago so weenies could see how lucky they have it now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Models used to be worse with flip-flopping IMHO....we see more gradual trends now than we did a decade to two decades ago. Not seeing that example for this winter but it is subjective so on paper you are probably correct. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2020 Author Share Posted January 31, 2020 1 minute ago, dendrite said: I wish we could go back to the models from 15-20 years ago so weenies could see how lucky they have it now. I remember in the Feb 2006 blizzard, the old ETA totally whiffed us on the 06z run the night before...and I mean total whiff like northwest of I-95. Might be one of the worst 12-18 hour forecasts I've ever seen....very next run it was back to hitting us with 10-20 inches. I bet nobody remembers the Euro going way east before 12/9/05 (probably because they didn't have the fancy QPF graphics and clown maps they have now). Even slightly more recently, I feel like everyone has forgotten some of those very hard trends northward on the SWFEs of 2007 to 2009 in the final 48h....maybe NYC weenies remember better....they got taken out of the snow frequently on those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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