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Feb 1-2 storm threat


ORH_wxman
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Just looked at GFS... terrible 12 hour trend... big jumps in wrong direction... whatever new data was sampled (looks like energy entering BC) is not helping

And big changes... in 12 hours, went from "oh so close to something big that is well within guidance margin of error" to "very unfavorable"

gfs_z500_vort_us_fh72_trend.thumb.gif.8d9e4cd4eaf43803f2c81a89e854db6b.gif

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31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think he lost the list.

I still want to see the northern SW onshore, but not taking any names lol

This will be mildly interesting until tomorrow night when it either goes 20 new pages or non-event and crickets outside of Atlantic Canada.    Fast flow with lots of s/w energy packets will be good fodder for the next few weeks.    Lame January but winter has 8 more weeks in much of NE.     :snowman:

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Slight western shift this morning on the 6Z now gives all of Nova Scotia a major snow storm with even SE New Brunswick  getting in on the fun, but unfortunately for Shelburne County it is enough for a changeover to rain.  So where we are closing in on the 50 hour mark this track of this storm is almost a lock with still some variability.  Putting a blizzard special on order towards Boston but I do not know if it is even possible given the state of the AO+ with the opportunistic Oceans.  Some British meteorologist if he is one call this the pest from the west.

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11 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

6z GFS came west about 50 miles from the 00z run with the track and the precipitation shield.  12z runs are important if they show a more pronounced trend to the west, or stronger with the surface low.  Storm mode still in progress, threat is still present.

Enjoy a few showers 

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How can you guys quit on something not even happening yet.  We are still 54 hours from initial precipitation beginning.  It will likely start off as rain.  We get that, but the amounts could be significant especially if the NAM goes another 25-50 miles west the next 3 cycles.  That 2-3' range could be over the Cape and Islands, instead of over ACK and 20 miles east of CHH.  We still need to pay attention, and the 00z Euro ensembles showed a mean slanted towards the northwest.

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Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

How can you guys quit on something not even happening yet.  We are still 54 hours from initial precipitation beginning.  It will likely start off as rain.  We get that, but the amounts could be significant especially if the NAM goes another 25-50 miles west the next 3 cycles.  That 2-3' range could be over the Cape and Islands, instead of over ACK and 20 miles east of CHH.  We still need to pay attention, and the 00z Euro ensembles showed a mean slanted towards the northwest.

JFC give it the eff up.

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7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

If we can get all the seagulls to fart in the same direction, we might get the final push NW.

Ensemble guidance for what it's worth is no longer showing spread west of track. It's all along track/strength. She gone.

Yeah for your area, not for mine, I give about a 35% chance for at least over 3" of snow in CHH to HYA.

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