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Feb 1-2 storm threat


ORH_wxman
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2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I'd gamble with an Albany blizzard. Lol.   But yeah, as we get later in winter just give me nice WX if it ain't gonna' snow. 

You ski you know even if you are 33 and rain where you recreate it is probably snowing. I understand the Charlie Brown window watchers points though. Fair point of view. I would rather those who go get it enjoy it .

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The irony of a guy always going on about how he enjoys the science of meteorology disregarding H5 in analysis...poetically hypocritical.

I still have no clue what you are talking about.  Looks good at 5 h doesn't always translate to looking good at the surface my man

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5 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said:

Partially right. But mainly Wrong. It didn’t phase because that ridge is much weaker than forecasted days ago. This storm is a goner. Next. The leading Vort is not the worry. No ridge. Equal zonal progressive shitty flow. No room for coupling and amplification

You are also right about the ridge not being amplified enough.  The ridge was in a good position last week when the Euro and CMC showed a big snowstorm.

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Are you injecting your self in a discussion that has zero to do with any current modeling discussion?

Yeh I like to keep banter to a minimum.personally. Some of these analysis are ludicrous. Looks like the ones with the green tag and red tag are the ones to listen to. Have a good night.

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1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

You are also right about the ridge not being amplified enough.  The ridge was in a good position last week when the Euro and CMC showed a big snowstorm.

Nick nailed this, when we had the transient blocking this was the makings of a good storm,  now it's a late bloomer excellent for a Hazey kind of winter. Bummer really,  could have been a contendah

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I get the H5 jokes...pretty sure I coined the sarcastic version of "looks great at H5"...but anyone looking to advance their understanding of how the atmosphere works should remain mindful of variation aloft, regardless of modeled sensible appeal. Anyone who feels as though any piece of guidance was consistent is either passively aggressively projecting frustration onto others, or has a low met aptitude and should probably post less.

Last bit of bandwidth I will waste on this topic.

 

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I get the H5 jokes...pretty sure I coined the sarcastic version of "looks great at H5"...but anyone looking to advance their understanding of how the atmosphere works should remain mindful of variation aloft, regardless of modeled sensible appeal. Anyone who feels as though any piece of guidance was consistent is either passively aggressively projecring frustrstion onto others, or has a low met aptitude and should probably post less.

Last bit of bandwidth I will waste on this topic.

 

You coined the phrase " we don't live at 5H" too ,so there's that Ray

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3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Nick nailed this, when we had the transient blocking this was the makings of a good storm,  now it's a late bloomer excellent for a Hazey kind of winter. Bummer really,  could have been a contendah

This could have been a huge storm for alot of people. This was the cmc  at 12z on Sunday.  

Check out how amplified the ridge was.

Euro also showed the same thing when it gave the coast 1-2 feet.

 

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_29.png

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8 minutes ago, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said:

Yeh I like to keep banter to a minimum.personally. Some of these analysis are ludicrous. Looks like the ones with the green tag and red tag are the ones to listen to. Have a good night.

Party pooper

2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

You've been hanging out on the boards for what like 15 years? What's the ratio of 7+ day progged storms and actual storms? 100:1? 

20 Years to be exact and I havent learned anything

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3 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

You've been hanging out on the boards for what like 15 years? What's the ratio of 7+ day progged storms and actual storms? 100:1? 

Looks like on the GFS you ain't far from being all snow, 6 to 10 with gales. Another drift storm. That should get you back near 40

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