512high Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Just now, 78Blizzard said: We can blame Will for this. Bad juju creating this thread off that 18z EPS burp run. Na, Will had the balls to start a thread, just a suck pattern/winter it is what it is, grew a beard tracking this with all the model runs lol........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 yeah... and less digging northern stream... and more progressive trough... on both 18z GFS and 18z Euro H5 and trough orientation on 12z GFS looked most promising to me, but for a surprise to remain a possibility, these ingredients need to at least hold, not worsen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Call me a glass half full kind of guy... I’m not giving up down here yet.... we’ll get through 12z tomorrow. Weve seen bigger shifts at shorter leads. Still nearly 3 full days away 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shanemacdonald23 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Where can I get the 18z euro model.runs ? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Just now, wxsniss said: yeah... and less digging northern stream... and more progressive trough... for both 18z GFS and 18z Euro H5 and trough orientation on 12z GFS looked most promising to me, but for a surprise to remain a possibility, these ingredients need to at least hold, not worsen Ya this is over unfortunately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 we got 0z runs to go and prolly 12z Thursday given the run to run changes still occurring , especially in S SNE i gave it 1/8 yesterday for Bos to see 6” and that’s prolly similar 1/10 now ...still given the models still struggling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ya this is over unfortunately. Over, no. Less likely, yes. H5 handling has been very inconsistent, though we consistently get crappy solutions. I'd give this until at least Thurs 0z to show hints of improvement. Maintaining the status quo obviously won't do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, wxsniss said: Over, no. Less likely, yes. H5 handling has been very inconsistent, though we consistently get crappy solutions. I'd give this until at least Thurs 0z to show hints of improvement. Maintaining the status quo obviously won't do it. 12z Friday. This has some Messenger tricks coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 12z Friday. This has some Messenger tricks coming No it doesn’t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2020 Author Share Posted January 30, 2020 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: 12z Friday. This has some Messenger tricks coming Gonna need this to tick back a bit to make Friday relevant. We’re just getting mucked up by different shortwaves seemingly every run. There’s been some positive trends in the larger scale look but this may just ultimately end up being a case of too much interference. Still, I guess there’s enough changes each run to keep an eye on it a little longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 So basically, Is it 0z tonight when everything is sampled? I'm going to 12z tomorrow but i'd have to go back and see what Legro had said this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Gonna need this to tick back a bit to make Friday relevant. We’re just getting mucked up by different shortwaves seemingly every run. There’s been some positive trends in the larger scale look but this may just ultimately end up being a case of too much interference. Still, I guess there’s enough changes each run to keep an eye on it a little longer. I don’t know man. We’ve seen incremental improvements since 12z yesterday each run. I will be shocked if we don’t see accumulating snow from this. I think some folks(in the Ray camp) are thinking snow means blockbuster. For me.. a couple inches is all I’m focused on and I think the chance is there.. for a good amount more . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2020 Author Share Posted January 30, 2020 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: So basically, Is it 0z tonight when everything is sampled? I'm going to 12z tomorrow but i'd have to go back and see what Legro had said this morning. The northern stream that dives in late doesn’t get sampled until 00z tomorrow night. It’s out in the gulf of Alaska until then. Our initial northern shortwave that kind of becomes the “middle” one comes onshore tonight. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The northern stream that dives in late doesn’t get sampled until 00z tomorrow night. It’s out in the gulf of Alaska until then. Our initial northern shortwave that kind of becomes the “middle” one comes onshore tonight. Then i would suspect some more changes, The last storm we had last week that looked like snow and once sampled went to ottawa as we all recall, Was pretty far east and just kept coming west every cycle thereafter, Not saying this one will, But until everything is in the network, Cant totally write it off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBrosForever Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: We'd weed out quite a bit of weenies if we banned all those who blindly believe big snows are always coming... And lurkers as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Trying to make lemonade out of lemons...despite the first trough digging so far deep into Mexico (which eventually becomes the s/w for the coastal), the proceeding troughs behind it which "nudge" it OTS still have lots of variability amongst them so I would think a change in the track is still in the cards: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 For the 3rd time.... This trof is full of sh*t it ain't Happening. Don't see how it's possible. It's like a 1 in 50 chance for a moderate snow storm. Too progressive. Too much mixed up in the flow 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: For the 3rd time.... This trof is full of sh*t it ain't Happening. Don't see how it's possible. It's like a 1 in 50 chance for a moderate snow storm. Too progressive. Too much mixed up in the flow We get it. You’re in a pissy mood. If you have nothing to add, go somewhere else. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 3 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said: For the 3rd time.... This trof is full of sh*t it ain't Happening. Don't see how it's possible. It's like a 1 in 50 chance for a moderate snow storm. Too progressive. Too much mixed up in the flow To your point that screaming jet streak across the southeast doesn't help anyone but even if that jet streak weakens it's still very progressive flow which sucks. Banking on those two troughs to work themselves out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: We get it. You’re in a pissy mood. If you have nothing to add, go somewhere else. Whoa whoa whoa, I am not actually in a pissy mood at all Bob. I just don't see how this works at 5h.... Feel like a lot have been grasping at straws. A lot of tension in here, I'm honestly not being a di*I. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Just now, DotRat_Wx said: Whoa whoa whoa, I am not actually in a pissy mood at all Bob. I just don't see how this works at 5h.... Feel like a lot have been grasping at straws. A lot of tension in here, I'm honestly not being a di*I. The ensembles never really came on board outside of one single run. Most were too widespread or the cluster was all over the place. Never had that tell tale west of mean look outside of a hiccup run or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Crazy spread with that 558 DAM trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Not ready to sell yet, but obvioualy odds have decreased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not ready to sell yet, but obvioualy odds have decreased. I want it to snow as much as the next guy in here. Still early Feb. Time left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Sref? 1 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Just now, Snow88 said: Sref? Now we’re really reaching lol.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 9 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Sref? Few good members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 10 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Sref? We can always hold out for a rogue sref member hail mary. PF will attest, it can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Precip amounts are meager as well for coastal SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 12 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Sref? At this range LOL. That's just like looking at the NAM at this range for Saturday ....useless 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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