correnjim1 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just now, ORH_wxman said: 12z EPS. Looks pretty good at 78 but it kicks east pretty sharply at 84. Can’t see individual members isn't that right along the bench mark? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Eps decent at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 EPS for 1000 Alex! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 This winter has been really active but the lack of blocking really hurt our chances. Imagine if we had a negative NAO with all the storms we had. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 God that's super close...close enough to where this storm can't be completely tossed...hopefully this is the beginning of something and this idea continues through 12z tomorrow...otherwise this could become a complete forecast disaster...even if this signal remains constant through tomorrow's runs...it's still not enough to totally discount it but not really defined enough to make a distinct forecast. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 There is a clear divergence around 78-84hrs on the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 9 minutes ago, weathafella said: Eps decent at 12z Seemed offshore to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 12z EPS. Looks pretty good at 78 but it kicks east pretty sharply at 84. Can’t see individual members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2020 Author Share Posted January 29, 2020 1 minute ago, correnjim1 said: isn't that right along the bench mark? No, It’s a bit southeast. I was actually expecting to see it further NW based on the OP run but this is still too close to close the books on...esp with that trend in energy of dropping the trailing shortwave behind and injecting more energy from plains northern stream. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 I don't like the EPS. Way too far SE. Individual members not encouraging. Tough to believe this euro yet. Sell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Seemed offshore to me It is. But an improvement from prior runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just now, DotRat_Wx said: I don't like the EPS. Way too far SE. Individual members not encouraging. Tough to believe this euro yet. Sell. There are still about 8 or 9 so big solutions..but was hoping for a few more adds vs 6z EPS. At least they didn't disappear though, telling me they are still on the table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 1 minute ago, DotRat_Wx said: I don't like the EPS. Way too far SE. Individual members not encouraging. Tough to believe this euro yet. Sell. We're still at the stage where sfc reflection isn't all that important...the surface reflection is going to be dependent on the evolution of the features at H5...point is if H5 continues with these improvements...it will reflect at the sfc. Seeing the major differences in the evolution of the northern stream is extremely encouraging. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 That one weenie 973mb BM bomb though.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just now, Ericjcrash said: That one weenie 973mb BM bomb though.... cue James with a 50 sentence long post about how if the storm tracks over the Gulf Stream that is an extremely likely solution with as much as 12-18'' possible at the Cape with wind gusts over 80 mph b/c 500mb winds at the base of the trough approach 100 mph 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: We're still at the stage where sfc reflection isn't all that important...the surface reflection is going to be dependent on the evolution of the features at H5...point is if H5 continues with these improvements...it will reflect at the sfc. Seeing the major differences in the evolution of the northern stream is extremely encouraging. And they're not minor improvements at h5 either. Major improvements. GFS from run to run was ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Eps Mean Qpf def ticked back from 6Z its been steadily shaving off since 18z yesterday. The mean snow total is hilarious its about 0-1.5 for SNE. Prob because most are misses and the hits are counted as mainly rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Not sure what some were/are expecting out of this, Seems like some are looking for Jan 2005. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just now, Ericjcrash said: And they're not minor improvements at h5 either. Major improvements. GFS from run to run was ridiculous. yeah that's a major eye opening change. You don't usually see changes that significant at this range. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 H5 is definitely encouraging and we are d3 out from the 12z runs so we have some time to improve things, we've done it with a lot less lead time than this. Only thing thats really annoying is this shit airmass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just now, The 4 Seasons said: H5 is definitely encouraging and we are d3 out from the 12z runs so we have some time to improve things, we've done it with a lot less lead time than this. Only thing thats really annoying is this shit airmass. Tenor of the season. Even if a storm comes ashore, it will be precarious with that air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 3 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: H5 is definitely encouraging and we are d3 out from the 12z runs so we have some time to improve things, we've done it with a lot less lead time than this. Only thing thats really annoying is this shit airmass. The airmass thing means very little to me. If the storm is halfway decent it won’t matter... if the storm blows... the airmass will be a factor 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: yeah that's a major eye opening change. You don't usually see changes that significant at this range. What's interesting is that the GFS has been doing that for the past couple days with that s/w flip-flopping from being high amplitude to low amplitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 2 minutes ago, It's Always Sunny said: What's interesting is that the GFS has been doing that for the past couple days with that s/w flip-flopping from being high amplitude to low amplitude. I think it's an encouraging sign to see it back to high amplitude now...assuming with each new set of runs the pieces are being sampled better...a hedge in this direction is excellent news. The only question is will this be consistent through overnight guidance. If the flip-flopping continues then it's really anyone's guess as to what transpires b/c the end result will be too close for comfort (in terms of having to issue forecasts with leadtime) and could go either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: I think it's an encouraging sign to see it back to high amplitude now...assuming with each new set of runs the pieces are being sampled better...a hedge in this direction is excellent news. The only question is will this be consistent through overnight guidance. If the flip-flopping continues then it's really anyone's guess as to what transpires b/c the end result will be too close for comfort (in terms of having to issue forecasts with leadtime) and could go either way. I'm just concerned with how deep that southern trough digs that's what's going to decide the fate of this storm. If it doesn't dig as much it will allow that leading s/w to develop further north to give it the track you need. Mean spreads are really low with the amplitude of that trough so that's where my cause for concern lies but model guidance also has a tendency to struggle with anything originating in Mexico so there's that to keep in mind as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Just wait. When this thing comes in full beast . I’ve been collecting names Color me skeptical. If this were the Euro of a few years ago, I'd be intrigued. If you're seeing your 1'-3' on Saturday morning, wake me up. 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I’m buying my hat from the amazon discount section right now... I can lend you one of mine if you'd like. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Funny thing was that Yesterday the 18z Euro head fake, had all the EPS backing you could want, and it still Lost it all again at 0z. Todays 12z Euro big improvement doesn't have as much EPS backing as last nights 18z had...but maybe this time it's the real Trend regardless of the EPS not being as enthused as last evenings were. Kind of Ironic in that sense. But we're closer in and the sampling should be that much better, so this is definitely encouraging. We'll see where it goes in a couple hours on the next set of runs. 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 12z EPS not coming northwest is disappointing. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said: 12z EPS not coming northwest is disappointing. wut? I'm pretty sure it was posted that they were an improvement from 00z and 06z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 54 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Not sure what some were/are expecting out of this, Seems like some are looking for Jan 2005. not much middle ground. big phaser or a fish storm 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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