Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 On 1/31/2020 at 12:59 PM, dendrite said: Idk. 00z had qpf but the ptype on pivotal was rain. Not sure what they would have had for 6z. Expand I posted 850 and surface plenty cold, 700 is cold too, dont see any warm layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 On 1/31/2020 at 2:56 PM, Ginx snewx said: I posted 850 and surface plenty cold, 700 is cold too, dont see any warm layer. Expand Like Scoot said it’s with the northern s/w...just some PVA forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 On 1/31/2020 at 2:58 PM, dendrite said: Like Scoot said it’s with the northern s/w...just some PVA forcing. Expand Nice, Nammies insisting on south coast snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 You guys blowing up James for his emotional weenie posts and unpinning, might be what this threat needed to give the south coast a couple of inches lol. Nammy suite actually gives James 2 to 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 On 1/31/2020 at 3:08 PM, Ginx snewx said: You guys blowing up James for his emotional weenie posts and unpinning, might be what this threat needed to give the south coast a couple of inches lol. Nammy suite actually gives James 2 to 4 Expand 6z nam maybe but 12z nam is OTC for Ack and the hi-res is less than an inch of snow James was calling for 2’ again “just offshore “ . It’s like Bruce schwoegler forecasting on bath salts or crank. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 On 1/31/2020 at 3:08 PM, Ginx snewx said: You guys blowing up James for his emotional weenie posts and unpinning, might be what this threat needed to give the south coast a couple of inches lol. Nammy suite actually gives James 2 to 4 Expand That's not the storm though...just a weak inv trough ahead of the approaching northern vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 is that a flake or two for me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 On 1/31/2020 at 3:22 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: 6z nam maybe but 12z nam is OTC for Ack and the hi-res is less than an inch of snow James was calling for 2’ again “just offshore “ . It’s like Bruce schwoegler forecasting on bath salts or crank. Expand Lol James being James. I look forward to my 6Z Euro Pva snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 On 1/31/2020 at 3:22 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: 6z nam maybe but 12z nam is OTC for Ack and the hi-res is less than an inch of snow James was calling for 2’ again “just offshore “ . It’s like Bruce schwoegler forecasting on bath salts or crank. Expand Is "Crank" the new hot drug now? LOL. Crank was a movie I believe with that British Bald headed actor...Jason Statham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2020 Author Share Posted January 31, 2020 Euro is trying for like an inch or two of snow over SNE for Sat night...esp south. It turns into an IVT but it almost starts off as a little midlevel magic band oriented NE to SW with the H5 trough.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Nice some snow will fly Sat night per Euro and CMC. Inch or so here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Should I repin it to rekill the threat? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 On 1/31/2020 at 6:04 PM, ORH_wxman said: Euro is trying for like an inch or two of snow over SNE for Sat night...esp south. It turns into an IVT but it almost starts off as a little midlevel magic band oriented NE to SW with the H5 trough.... Expand The RGEM and HERPS has a signal for it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 On 1/31/2020 at 6:09 PM, SouthCoastMA said: The RGEM and HERPS has a signal for it too. Expand Could be a surprise... some models have it on and off. I guess it get unpinned if some folks aren’t in the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 On 1/31/2020 at 5:53 PM, Ginx snewx said: Cept I mean it 1 to 2 is possible Expand oh lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 On 1/31/2020 at 6:11 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Could be a surprise... some models have it on and off. I guess it get unpinned if some folks aren’t in the game Expand That’s shitty. If SNE isn’t involved, my events don’t get pinned. It’s freakin snow showers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 On 1/31/2020 at 6:11 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Could be a surprise... some models have it on and off. I guess it get unpinned if some folks aren’t in the game Expand It's morphed into something we weren't really tracking, but either way it's minor. Don't care if its pinned that much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 ASEMAATT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 On 1/31/2020 at 6:13 PM, dendrite said: That’s shitty. If SNE isn’t involved, my events don’t get pinned. It’s freakin snow showers. Expand I’m just busting lol. Whether the thread is pinned or not isn’t going to affect how much snow I get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Pinning it now to kill it for good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 On 1/31/2020 at 6:18 PM, dendrite said: Pinning it now to kill it for good. Expand Maybe I should unpin it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Nothing is going to change my luck except maybe #freeleo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 On 1/31/2020 at 6:07 PM, Ginx snewx said: Nice some snow will fly Sat night per Euro and CMC. Inch or so here Expand I thought of you as soon as seeing the Euro. Hope that works out for you guys and someone can grab an inch or two to brighten up the landscape. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 On 1/31/2020 at 6:23 PM, Hazey said: Nothing is going to change my luck except maybe #freeleo Expand Euro fail, that quite a shift between 00/06z and 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 On 1/31/2020 at 6:30 PM, OSUmetstud said: Euro fail, that quite a shift between 00/06z and 12z. Expand Inside 36hrs too. Horrendous failure. We'll see how much the models will fail for next weeks weather. I have 0 confidence in any model now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 On 1/31/2020 at 6:30 PM, OSUmetstud said: Euro fail, that quite a shift between 00/06z and 12z. Expand That model has been Abysmal lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 On 1/31/2020 at 6:32 PM, Hazey said: Inside 36hrs too. Horrendous failure. We'll see how much the models will fail for next weeks weather. I have 0 confidence in any model now. Expand Yeah i knew it was an outlier when preparing the forecast today, but I figured it wouldn't shift that much given the ensembles were there too. it basically just folded it's previous three runs and went with the other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 On 1/31/2020 at 2:05 PM, Hazey said: The whole argument that the pattern is too complex and giving the models trouble is BS imo. What, like there hasn't been a complex or even more complex pattern in the past?. Here's hoping that next winter we can smooth out these whole sale changes, especially inside 84 hrs. We're inside 24hrs now and there is still no consistency. Forecast models have 1"- 12" for my hood...lol Expand Disagree...there are certain patterns in which the models have a difficult time handling. It's even been mentioned in forecast discussions before when something like this is the case. The more pieces which are introduced into the forecast the more complex the result becomes and the higher the likelihood for inconsistencies and drastic changes. On 1/31/2020 at 2:23 PM, ORH_wxman said: I remember in the Feb 2006 blizzard, the old ETA totally whiffed us on the 06z run the night before...and I mean total whiff like northwest of I-95. Might be one of the worst 12-18 hour forecasts I've ever seen....very next run it was back to hitting us with 10-20 inches. I bet nobody remembers the Euro going way east before 12/9/05 (probably because they didn't have the fancy QPF graphics and clown maps they have now). Even slightly more recently, I feel like everyone has forgotten some of those very hard trends northward on the SWFEs of 2007 to 2009 in the final 48h....maybe NYC weenies remember better....they got taken out of the snow frequently on those. Expand I remember this pretty well surprisingly. That was a shock beyond belief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Pin, Unpin, Pin, Unpin, She gone, Not gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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