ChescoWx Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Latest WXSIM for NW Chester County PA with 6z data has snow arriving by 1am Saturday morning with temps at 34.9 Heavy Snow from 330a till 730am with 3" of snow by moderate snow by 10am tapering off to light rain and snow by 11am ending by 1pm with total snow accumulation around 4" - models are all over the place expect them to come into better focus starting tomorrow evening - Thursday at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 Will be very interesting to track this as we get closer. We've got a very large model spread at the moment. Euro/CMC are still OTS. NAVGEM has slowly backed off the super amplified look. GFS and ICON are solid hits. UKMET is an ampliefied bomb off the jersey coast but the surface is torched so it's basically just a windy rain storm. I think it's going to be hard to score around 95 on this one. I'd be shocked if we get an inch to be honest. North and west a 1-3" pasting looks to be in the cards but with so many possible solutions at this juncture, it's hard to even be confident in that. Will be a fun fews days of tracking but I warn that this one is likely a fail imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 12 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Will be very interesting to track this as we get closer. We've got a very large model spread at the moment. Euro/CMC are still OTS. NAVGEM has slowly backed off the super amplified look. GFS and ICON are solid hits. UKMET is an ampliefied bomb off the jersey coast but the surface is torched so it's basically just a windy rain storm. I think it's going to be hard to score around 95 on this one. I'd be shocked if we get an inch to be honest. North and west a 1-3" pasting looks to be in the cards but with so many possible solutions at this juncture, it's hard to even be confident in that. Will be a fun fews days of tracking but I warn that this one is likely a fail imo Popping in from Lancaster county just to say that I think every word of this post is spot on. Even out this way I have what I call "hope but next to zero expectation." Way too many things argue against this working for us...but there's just enough intrigue with it being a potential coastal to keep tracking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 28, 2020 Author Share Posted January 28, 2020 28 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Popping in from Lancaster county just to say that I think every word of this post is spot on. Even out this way I have what I call "hope but next to zero expectation." Way too many things argue against this working for us...but there's just enough intrigue with it being a potential coastal to keep tracking. Agreed with both of you!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 41 minutes ago, The Iceman said: Will be very interesting to track this as we get closer. We've got a very large model spread at the moment. Euro/CMC are still OTS. NAVGEM has slowly backed off the super amplified look. GFS and ICON are solid hits. UKMET is an ampliefied bomb off the jersey coast but the surface is torched so it's basically just a windy rain storm. I think it's going to be hard to score around 95 on this one. I'd be shocked if we get an inch to be honest. North and west a 1-3" pasting looks to be in the cards but with so many possible solutions at this juncture, it's hard to even be confident in that. Will be a fun fews days of tracking but I warn that this one is likely a fail imo This isnt the one imo. We in the immediate Philly burbs I95 corridor and e of the fall line are hoping for a perfect scenario with phasing at the precise place and time and LP strengthening and location in a specific spot at a specific time to incur dynamic cooling to produce high enough rates for accumulations. There just isnt enough antecedent cold air in place for areas I mentioned. Now if the 6z icon has any semblance of a clue then farther N and W high elevations might do ok with a pasty wet snow. I'm not on board with this one for my area...too fine of a thread the needle for here and with models still ranging from tracking right on the coast to well off the coast there is just as good a chance this just barely misses than threads the needle for a win. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 28, 2020 Author Share Posted January 28, 2020 39 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: This isnt the one imo. We in the immediate Philly burbs I95 corridor and e of the fall line are hoping for a perfect scenario with phasing at the precise place and time and LP strengthening and location in a specific spot at a specific time to incur dynamic cooling to produce high enough rates for accumulations. There just isnt enough antecedent cold air in place for areas I mentioned. Now if the 6z icon has any semblance of a clue then farther N and W high elevations might do ok with a pasty wet snow. I'm not on board with this one for my area...too fine of a thread the needle for here and with models still ranging from tracking right on the coast to well off the coast there is just as good a chance this just barely misses than threads the needle for a win. We shall see. Agreed Steve....I think it could be a white rain depending on intensity with some accumulation as you go up and over 600ft asl....but as you know this will all change by next run - plus we will likely be Nammed by Friday! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 The only changes to my initial thoughts of the the Ground hog day beheading storm event of being a foot of snow for us is unlikely but more realistic of a half of that amount as it stands right now. (Snow weenie in me). I will start watching ther models more when better and more reliable sampling comes are ingested into the models for Wednesday into Thursday and once the LP gets closer or over the continental divide. The parade of Miller A's still may happen even though the -AO must get into place if even for a little time. I agree with Ralph that next week looks very promising for a good coastal as some blocking is appearing on the LR models. Analog year still looks like 94-95. We just cannot get the long shots of Arctic cold air as the the progressive and transient cold air shot patterns are the dominant feature this winter. In this type of pattern though, it stands to reason that I am much more excited about a very active weather pattern for severe t- storms in mid-late April into May for the entire eastern US as in 1995. My current thoughts: MJO will reemerge out of the COD just before Valentines Day heading for 7/8. Thats when the tracking of potential storm fun begins. Thats what I meant when I said the parade of Miller A's show up on the models. Until then, we will be constantly tracking this threading the needle storm crap until we finally get a hit. The people below the fall line will see nada unless we get an actual "thread the needle" storm event. The LV- wintry mix will continue to define this winter. My initial LR groundhogs day forecast from several weeks ago for nearly a foot of snow on the ground in the LV - I am still holding onto that with the hopes that one of the thread the need LP systems sits near the bench mark long enough to feed us some decent moisture for snow development and that dynamic cooling dumps aids in the creation of wet heavy snow on us. Without both of these conditions t the same time, it does not look hopeful for at least a normal winter snowfall for E. PA. On 1/6/2020 at 10:52 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: From your keyboard to Mother Nature's monitor. Hoping u r right. A 7/8 into the cod then reemerging near 7 again wont be good.....at all. yes we are close and I will agree with that but the better chances of Miller A's formations usually start popping a week or so later once we get to that end of that COD point as the subtropical jet tends to open for business. I will try to remember to my past weather experiences in this situation and say if I had to pick an analog year, it would be 1994-95 as further described from this NYC site: More good weather historical info here. https://thestarryeye.typepad.com/weather/2014/11/each-winters-snowstorms-1970-2014.html The date and amount of snow tend to match up pretty well to this winter thus far. Waiting for the big one in the next few weeks. WINTER OF 1994-95 Feb. 4, 1995 - Only 11.8" of snow fell during this winter and almost all of it fell today as 10.8" of heavy, wet snow fell furiously on a Saturday morning (close to three inches fell between 6-7AM) before changing over to rain at around 9AM. Then the coldest air of the winter moved in overnight, flash-freezing the slush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 GFS caves to the Euro...shocker. CMC and ICON are still hits but mostly rain for most. N and W possibly sees an inch or 2 on those models. UKMET is also further E than 00z and it also is too warm at the surface for most. Seems like this one is pretty much DOA for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 28, 2020 Author Share Posted January 28, 2020 15 minutes ago, The Iceman said: GFS caves to the Euro...shocker. CMC and ICON are still hits but mostly rain for most. N and W possibly sees an inch or 2 on those models. UKMET is also further E than 00z and it also is too warm at the surface for most. Seems like this one is pretty much DOA for now. I suspect we are not done with a closer to the coast solution over the next 48hrs plus no doubt we will be NAMmmed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted January 28, 2020 Share Posted January 28, 2020 I'll take the fish storm for $100 please, Alex. I would be shocked if that ICON verified, which it will not. GFS will keep trending to the KING, so I'm out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 21 hours ago, ChescoPaWxman said: Agreed Steve....I think it could be a white rain depending on intensity with some accumulation as you go up and over 600ft asl....but as you know this will all change by next run - plus we will likely be Nammed by Friday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 9 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Whew just in time too i was starting to doubt 12-16" on the ground by groundhog day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 close thread........ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 1 hour ago, hazwoper said: close winter........ Fyp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Is this now the obs thread for the Super Bowl storm? 37F, damp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 38F and damp here currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 37F Cloudy. Foggy as hell this morning though. Pre dawn, I couldn't see anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 18 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: 37F Cloudy. Foggy as hell this morning though. Pre dawn, I couldn't see anything. Yeah it was pretty cool (not having to drive in it helped). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Just now, KamuSnow said: Yeah it was pretty cool (not having to drive in it helped). Sleeping in and missing it was even better! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 fwiw, and probably not much, the 18Z NAM has a small band of snow moving through the NW burbs tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 1, 2020 Share Posted February 1, 2020 Getting some light rain here with 40 some degrees (outside under a tent with a kettle fire, heh heh). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Incoming? (watched Punxsutawney Phil this morning and they were getting light powdery snow out there at the time of Phil's cancelling of winter...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 2, 2020 Author Share Posted February 2, 2020 Light Snow here in East Nantmeal in NW Chester County PA with a temp at 38.8 DP 30.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 39 with light snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geeter1 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 37F with white rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Mostly virga, but occasional light rain/flurries. Looks like heavier stuff is just off to my west and about to move in. 39F/29DP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 2, 2020 Author Share Posted February 2, 2020 Moderate snow in East Nantmeal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Light rain, rain snow mix, and once in a while mostly snow here, but all light. 39F. So that's 4 months in a row we've had flakes in the air anyway, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 White rain. 36/33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 2, 2020 Share Posted February 2, 2020 Was this the biggest relative snow for anyone this season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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