February/March 2020 Winter's Last Chance Thread

[Daniel Boone]

Icon is generally a bit warm biased and also usually the least snowiest solution of the models for our area.  Of course, this year that has worked out good for ir, lol.

   

[tnweathernut]

23 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said:

Thanks for the heads up,  haven’t had a chance to look at any models this morning  cause of work.  What’s the ICON’s track record??

It's been pretty bad........ but the Euro was throwing a solution last night so who knows.  

Normally, if someone's life depended on the ICON being right from day 8...............  I'd tell them to have their family go ahead and prepare their obituary and wish them God speed.  

[Carvers Gap]

24 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said:

Thanks for the heads up,  haven’t had a chance to look at any models this morning  cause of work.  What’s the ICON’s track record??

Considering we don't talk about it much...LOL.  But it sometimes can throw us a bone.  12z GFS has a similar system at 192.  It is further east, but a similar look.  I don't worry too much about details at this range, just the potential for an slp to move north.  Looks to me like there is reasonable potential for a storm to come out of the GOM depending on where the trough sharpens up and the vort turns neutral.  Could be a track anywhere from middle TN to just inside the coast or even the coast.

[Carvers Gap]

27 minutes ago, AMZ8990 said:

Thanks for the heads up,  haven’t had a chance to look at any models this morning  cause of work.  What’s the ICON’s track record??

But the Euro was in the West TN camp this morning...so that is a strong card.  Still a long way to go, but some potential in the pattern.  Again, going to really depend on where that trough diggs and goes neutral.  The trend during recent runs is to dig it further west(not in the West) over like Texas.  If that happens, west TN would be sitting nice.  Additionally, with the positive tilted full-continent trough look after d10, would not be surprised to see the far western end of the state see some frozen precip.  

[Carvers Gap]

5 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

It's been pretty bad........ but the Euro was throwing a solution last night so who knows.  

Normally, if someone's life depended on the ICON being right from day 8...............  I'd tell them to have their family go ahead and prepare their obituary and wish them God speed.  

True that.  I do like the JMA for big coastals though.

[Carvers Gap]

IMHO, the 12z GFS is already off the rails at 252.  When modeling starts to dig energy from Idaho into California, the run just goes to pot.  It may verify.  Heck, I'd like to see if it could be done.   Vancouver to Boise to LA just is counter intuitive.  

[Carvers Gap]

Right now the GFS is all over the place.  I think Jeff called it the "Choose Your Own Adventure" model.  It has been for the past few days after d10.  Some of its runs are a blast to look at and break down, but...Anyway, I don't think it is wrong about the trough out West.  However, that evolution and that 500 low just spinning rarely works out.  We just need some really strong cold to start showing up in order to undercut expected ridge at 500 after Feb 10.   I like looking at the model just to see what it spits out.  Sometimes it finds a piece of corn.

[Carvers Gap]

@AMZ8990 The CMC did about the same thing last the ICON but a hair to the west - over the TN River area out your way.  Arkansas would probably be the beneficiary.  Probably is a bit too close to really score, but no way that position is correct this far out.  Just means one potential track of a potential storm is through middle TN.    So that gives us three models with that track.  0z Euro, 12z ICON, and 12z CMC.  Just something to watch.  I know sometimes your end of the state takes a back seat, so wanting to make sure to point when you all have a shot.  

[weathertree4u]

8 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Right now the GFS is all over the place.  I think Jeff called it the "Choose Your Own Adventure" model.  It has been for the past few days after d10.  Some of its runs are a blast to look at and break down, but...Anyway, I don't think it is wrong about the trough out West.  However, that evolution and that 500 low just spinning rarely works out.  We just need some really strong cold to start showing up in order to undercut expected ridge at 500 after Feb 10.   I like looking at the model just to see what it spits out.  Sometimes it finds a piece of corn.

Yea that is opposite day from prior run

[AMZ8990]

8 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

@AMZ8990 The CMC did about the same thing last the ICON but a hair to the west - over the TN River area out your way.  Arkansas would probably be the beneficiary.  Probably is a bit too close to really score, but no way that position is correct this far out.  Just means one potential track of a potential storm is through middle TN.    So that gives us three models with that track.  0z Euro, 12z ICON, and 12z CMC.  Just something to watch.  I know sometimes your end of the state takes a back seat, so wanting to make sure to point when you all have a shot.  

Thanks brotha,  I appreciate that

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Apologies to mempho, but taking a brief break from fighting the southeast ridge balrog as I plummet to the lake below Kazaduum. 

Not saying it will verify, but that GFS run looked a lot like last Feb:

I will say if we want to see a strong attack on the SPV, having the pattern the OP GFS depicted at 12z is a good way to get it started from the Atlantic side. 

 

[Carvers Gap]

32 minutes ago, weathertree4u said:

Yea that is opposite day from prior run

I mean I think the message is a trough going into the west after Feb 10(maybe a hair earlier).  I had noted that on the Weeklies on Monday.  The MJO is going to make a run at 4 and 5 which is very much what is being shown.  I guess the question I have is whether we see some cold press that boundary south like we saw on ensembles yesterday at 12z?  Again, that really looks like a pattern that would benefit northern Ohio at best.  Troughs that have a more north south nature are fairly easy features to place on a map.  Their depth and timing are unknown variables that have to be solve of course.  When a trough gets placed on a southwest to northeast axis that is very positive, there is massive room for error.  the most accurate place is probably the pivot are where the trough originally digs.  I think that is why we are seeing modeling feedback in Southern California.   How far the elongate trough presses is an unknown.  My guess is that the trough will dig West and slowly (over a period of 7-8 days-ish) get kicked at least into the nation's mid-section.  That is some sketchy stuff being modeled - meaning the actual outcome is likely different post d10.  Modeling is still in two camps.  One camp wants to put a trough out West, dig it, and then lift it out.   Another camp doesn't want to be there long at all.  So far, the operationals at 12z favor really digging it out there during the middle ten days of the month.  The second window for a storm in February is possible when that trough gets kicked out.  IF Canada fills with cold air and then combine that with changing wavelengths, wild stuff is always a possibility.

[Carvers Gap]

Just looking at the 12z GEFS, at 228 it has delayed the inevitable eastern SER.  Some moderate changes at this point.

Edit:  After that...very similar.   Prior to that, the ridge struggled to form.

[tnweathernut]

3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Just looking at the 12z GEFS, at 228 it has delayed the inevitable eastern SER.  Some moderate changes at this point.

Still pops later, but you are right.  At least for this run vs. the past 3, it looks a bit delayed.

[Carvers Gap]

I think modeling is really struggling with what to do with the trough in the West.  The MJO progression favors that and it will win for a time.  But one can almost see those wavelengths changing up, and it scrambles the MJO signal.   Those long, broad troughs and ridges are sharper.  Below is where a I think the second window forms.  Likely it is a 2-3 day window centered sometime around the 20th.   The trough lifts out of the West and heads into southern Canada.  We get a brief long wave trough that we can hope has energy timed correctly.  The GEFS, while very shaky at best in its verification, does do this.    

[Carvers Gap]

And again at 12z today there are strong, cold surface highs on the GEFS which are pressing under the trough at 500.  I want to see the EPS back this up before commenting further.  Honestly, the GEFS is almost a waste of breath in terms of details which is understandable at this range.  Just looking for trends at 500.

[John1122]

We averaged +20 during that stretch of January. 

[weathertree4u]

3 minutes ago, John1122 said:

We averaged +20 during that stretch of January. 

Persistence usually wins no pun intended 

[John1122]

The modeled cold has become the modeled warm. Even with a storm to our south and east the temps are in the upper 40s to low 50s on the Euro.  There's not a day in the next 10 where the entire forum is sub freezing at the same time, even for a low temp.  I believe Knoxville only gets to freezing once in the next 10 days on that run and it was D10. 

Similar to 1992-93 so far.  That one finally snowed more than a trace in late February and then we had the blizzard. I wouldn't count on either of those things happening this year. 

Pretty amazing that winter snow was likely over by December 12th but it's the climate we live in these days.  Two options for snow lovers are to move north or move up in elevation. If you can find a spot above 3 or 4000 feet to move to you'll get at least some snow every year, probably similar to normal amounts at lower elevations from 20 years ago. 

[Carvers Gap]

Is it true that seven of our last eleven Januarys(including this one) dating back to 2009 have been BN?

[weathertree4u]

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

We averaged +20 during that stretch of n

Nashville is now in fourth place for greatest number of days without at least a trace snow, seven hundred fifty days I think

[Carvers Gap]

Looking at PRISM data, looks like eight of the last 12?

[John1122]

7 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Is it true that seven of our last eleven Januarys(including this one) dating back to 2009 have been BN?

2009-11 were BN, 2012-13 AN, 14BN, 15N, 16BN, 17AN, 18BN, 19-20AN. 

So 6 below, 5 above and 1 (2015) was about as close to normal as you can get. I think it was -.1 to +.1 at various data sites. Seems skewed because 3 of the 6 were the first 3 years of the period and in 2018 it was BN but ultra dry. 

[snowmaker]

What is the euro looking like this run?

[John1122]

Just now, snowmaker said:

What is the euro looking like this run?

Warm and wet. 

[John1122]

Out of the AN Januarys all but one saw February be AN to well AN.  The one that wasn't was near normal. None went on to see a BN February. Looking at current 10 to 15 day forecasts, the MJO forecast and other factors, I seriously doubt that this one gets to N or BN either.  Right now I'd guess we finish at least +3 for February with the potential for that to be far too conservative. 

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, John1122 said:

2009-11 were BN, 2012-13 AN, 14BN, 15N, 16BN, 17AN, 18BN, 19-20AN. 

So 6 below, 5 above and 1 (2015) was about as close to normal as you can get. I think it was -.1 to +.1 at various data sites. Seems skewed because 3 of the 6 were the first 3 years of the period and in 2018 it was BN but ultra dry. 

Here is what I have for Januarys(month to date) on PRISM...18, 16, 15, 14, 11, 10, 9, and 8 are BN.  I have 8 BN and 4 AN for the past twelve, and seven of the past eleven.  Looks like 15 is the question mark.  Maybe the last three days were warm?  I can see Jan 1-29 for my comparison data for Januarys way back.  So, even if we are 6 of the 11 BN, I am not throwing in the towel on winters as a whole at this elevation.  It is not like we have had the heart of winter warm each year.   Over half of those Januarys, even with the conservative number, are cold.  Yeah, this year has been terrible so far.  But just no way to know what future winters are going to look like.  If we keep with the recent trend of roughly 2/3 being BN, not sure how one can make the claim that winter is over at this elevation.  I can understand the reasoning behind canceling this winter, but not sure data supports canceling future winters.  It is frustrating for all of us for sure, though.   But I know I will be here to finish this winter and be back for the next Lord willing.

Just now, snowmaker said:

What is the euro looking like this run?

Storm moves east but is a rainer verbatim.  With its almost due north trajectory, would likely be quite strong in reality.

[Carvers Gap]

6 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Out of the AN Januarys all but one saw February be AN to well AN.  The one that wasn't was near normal. None went on to see a BN February. Looking at current 10 to 15 day forecasts, the MJO forecast and other factors, I seriously doubt that this one gets to N or BN either.  Right now I'd guess we finish at least +3 for February with the potential for that to be far too conservative. 

So, how has March looked during the past decade?  I have read some stuff about Decembers warming and Marchs cooling by J D'Aleo.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Isotherm's latest update pretty much tosses the whole first half of Feb. Still, somehow, seems optimistic about late Feb and March. 

[Carvers Gap]

I will save the future climate talk for other forums...

As for the window between Feb 5-7, still a storm signal there.  Still a trough at 500 there.  That time frame has warmed, but that date range is still almost a week out.  Things can and will change.  Could get worse and could get better.  I am here to track storms.  No way I am sticking a fork in a storm one week out with the config at 500 on the Euro.  That is a nice storm evolution.  But it is fair to say that temps have not trended well.  The storm track is still there.