February/March 2020 Winter's Last Chance Thread

[Carvers Gap]

BTW, the reason I am not buying that after d10 is not because it doesn't hit MBY, it's just the aforementioned progression looks really odd. Anyway, that 18z run at least gives us one possibility of maybe what is happening(excluding the trough digging to Guam) under the hood within ensembles that show the ridge dig west after d9 and then press eastward.

[Carvers Gap]

12z Euro just ran.  It is not too dissimilar to the GFS.  The trough at 500 goes neg tilt late in the run.  So who knows if that holds.   Big difference is losing the pseudo -NAO mid-run.  I say pseudo because it is only there due to the HB block being lifted out.  That changed the configuration of the run and changed the config of the window for a storm.  Again, I will say that we are hunting a window for a storm.  Once it became obvious there was nothing to hold the cold in place, were are basically looking for a winter storm as the trough enters or leaves.  Losing blocking up top causes problems with cold sources and with forcing troughs underneath.  -NAOs matter when hunting EC storms but a 50/50 low(low holding just north of Maine) will do it.  Something has to block the storm south.  Anyway, overall synopsis is the trough digs into TX and holds slightly more than 0z.  What that does is to allow it to do is sharpen the trough.  Energy hits the bottom of the trough and there you go.  If you want a lot of cold, that is probably not your run.  If you want a trough that digs enough to force a (SECS) storm to track, that is your run.  Of note, there is another piece of energy at 192 that could also work.  So, it is similar to the GFS that a couple of pieces of energy start beneath us and work up.

[Carvers Gap]

At 240, there is a near perfect negative til trough at 500 (vort maps are a nice look) as it is leaving Alabama.  That is a big storm look.  But it is at 240.  If it is there in a few more runs, I will post a map.  I assume most of you can find a site and give it a look anyway.  If new, try Pivotal Weather or Tropical Tidbits for Euro maps.  

[Carvers Gap]

12z EPS basically has the same look for an ensemble out to d10.  Observable changes after that which are basically a variation of the same look from the past few days.  After d10 the EPS digs the western piece of cold and really buries the trough in the West - which has been discussed as a possibility ad nauseam.  So, the nice trend of cold being centered over MN at 300 is now centered over WY/UT.  Massive AN heights in AK and GOA.  All anomalous features over NA are much more amped than 0z.  Still looks like two amps from d10-15 regarding where to put the cold.  Eventually, the EPS tries to pull the cold back to HB at 318.  But overall, the message of the EPS is, "You had better score in early Feb."  By the end of the run strongly +NAO, +PAN, ++AO, retrograding(westward EP).  If there is one slight hope, it is that the EPS is dragging its heels in the West, but I have my doubts with that.  But since we know the models are not verifying well at d10-15 at times, I wouldn't lose sleep...it will change.  

@Holston_River_Rambler, any PV updates.  We may need it after Feb 10.  Interestingly, the Weeklies look to have nailed the MJO for the middle of Feb.  Let's hope they are right about what comes after.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Strat is ugly this PM. Euro had a big consolidated purple blob at day 10 and the gfs too at day 15. Both show disruptions in the day 6-7 range, but reconsolidation after that. 

[Carvers Gap]

18z GFS showing what happens when the trough does not get hung up in a feedback loop like it did 12z.  That is one potential option in a positively tilted trough.  If the cold pushes, things could get interesting.  Multiple ice storms across the SE post d10.  I think what is happening is the cold(prob overmodeled) is pushing at the surface.  We have seen this once before this winter and it did not verify.  The 500 map trumped the surface map in reality.  Still, that shows what can happen.  Likely? Prob not.

[Carvers Gap]

1054 high over MT at 300.  Let’s see if future runs have that.  

[Carvers Gap]

These snow amd ice amounts are gonna be just silly.  #happyhourridesagain

[Carvers Gap]

This run isn’t gone be denied one last shot.  1053 high crashing down into MT to end the run.  After these crap d10 ensemble runs today, I raise my glass to a DGEX throwback run!  Verifation score might take a hit.  Someone post the snow map with the best snow algorithm!  Full d16 map...nothing to lose, right!

[weathertree4u]

6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

These snow amd ice amounts are gonna be just silly.  #happyhourridesagain

18" snow in south Louisiana is odd?

[Carvers Gap]

3 minutes ago, weathertree4u said:

18" snow in south Louisiana is odd?

LOL!!!  Ya think? And of course, I agree.    I actually think that is the snowmegeddon pattern but we somehow get on the right side of the pattern.  I would actually be nervous in Akron, Ohio, though.  That strung out front is on almost all modeling.  Prob somebody to our north is going to be shoveling.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

happy times! for exactly 6 hours no less!

[weathertree4u]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

LOL!!!  Ya think? And of course, I agree.    I actually think that is the snowmegeddon pattern but we somehow get on the right side of the pattern.  I would actually be nervous in Akron, Ohio, though.  That strung out front is on almost all modeling.  Prob somebody to our north is going to be shoveling.  

Long as we don't get bunch ice I am good 

[Carvers Gap]

@Holston_River_Rambler, I was looking at the d10-15 on the 18z GEFS.  At 500, it backed it up.  The CFSv2 at 12z has the same deal.  Cold is pressing and the airmass is colder.  You know, I didn't look at the 12z EPS, but it has the same setup.  The cold is pressing under the SE ridge.  Not sure I buy that...again, we saw that once early in January on modeling and it busted.  The 500 pattern won.  So, I think we have to take into account that modeling has been far too cold at LR and we have to take into account(weighted much less obviously) that modeling was too warm during a pattern change in November.  Holston, do you think you could post a gif of the daily mslp anomoly from d10-15 of the EPS(edit)?  Watch that high spread out.  I didn't look at the surface.  The trend at 12z is for a much bigger high in the northern Rockies that spreads eastward.  2m surface temps and temp change reflect this d10-15.  Pushes all of the way to the Apps.  Holston, I think the WxBell analytics page might have more increments and provide a better look on the mslp anomaly.  If you need me to, I can just post a screen shot.  Need the daily version vs 7-day version.  Thanks again.  

@weathertree4u, that is ice city verbatim.  They have been cutting trees off power lines in my neighborhood for weeks on end.  It is a sign!  LOL.

 

Overall, I suspect if this occurs it happens over the Ohio Valley...but at least it is interesting.  

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

some similarities, mayhaps:

 

 

[weathertree4u]

10 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

@Holston_River_Rambler, I was looking at the d10-15 on the 18z GEFS.  At 500, it backed it up.  The CFSv2 at 12z has the same deal.  Cold is pressing and the airmass is colder.  You know, I didn't look at the 12z EPS, but it has the same setup.  The cold is pressing under the SE ridge.  Not sure I buy that...again, we saw that once early in January on modeling and it busted.  The 500 pattern won.  So, I think we have to take into account that modeling has been far too cold at LR and we have to take into account(weighted much less obviously) that modeling was too warm during a pattern change in November.  Holston, do you think you could post a gif of the daily mslp anomoly from d10-15 of the EPS(edit)?  Watch that high spread out.  I didn't look at the surface.  The trend at 12z is for a much bigger high in the northern Rockies that spreads eastward.  2m surface temps and temp change reflect this d10-15.  Pushes all of the way to the Apps.  Holston, I think the WxBell analytics page might have more increments and provide a better look on the mslp anomaly.  If you need me to, I can just post a screen shot.  Need the daily version vs 7-day version.  Thanks again.  

@weathertree4u, that is ice city verbatim.  They have been cutting trees off power lines in my neighborhood for weeks on end.  It is a sign!  LOL.

 

Overall, I suspect if this occurs it happens over the Ohio Valley...but at least it is interesting.  

 

I just have bad memories from February of 1994. You can still see on some trees where they were snapped about ten feet now

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Somewhat encouraged by the nW drift this PM of convection in the 2/3 zone:

 

The 4/5 isn't as bad as it looks on the above, but it ain't great either 

[mackerel_sky]

29 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

@Holston_River_Rambler, I was looking at the d10-15 on the 18z GEFS.  At 500, it backed it up.  The CFSv2 at 12z has the same deal.  Cold is pressing and the airmass is colder.  You know, I didn't look at the 12z EPS, but it has the same setup.  The cold is pressing under the SE ridge.  Not sure I buy that...again, we saw that once early in January on modeling and it busted.  The 500 pattern won.  So, I think we have to take into account that modeling has been far too cold at LR and we have to take into account(weighted much less obviously) that modeling was too warm during a pattern change in November.  Holston, do you think you could post a gif of the daily mslp anomoly from d10-15 of the EPS(edit)?  Watch that high spread out.  I didn't look at the surface.  The trend at 12z is for a much bigger high in the northern Rockies that spreads eastward.  2m surface temps and temp change reflect this d10-15.  Pushes all of the way to the Apps.  Holston, I think the WxBell analytics page might have more increments and provide a better look on the mslp anomaly.  If you need me to, I can just post a screen shot.  Need the daily version vs 7-day version.  Thanks again.  

@weathertree4u, that is ice city verbatim.  They have been cutting trees off power lines in my neighborhood for weeks on end.  It is a sign!  LOL.

 

Overall, I suspect if this occurs it happens over the Ohio Valley...but at least it is interesting.  

 

That high has a January 88 look to it!

[Carvers Gap]

 

45 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

some similarities, mayhaps:

 

 

Thank you.  Here you go.  This the MSLP anomaly on the 12z EPS.  The second graphic is what is under that SER on the EPS run.  If you have that feature, what is under the 18z GFS op run is wild.  I wouldn't have though to look had it not been for the 18z GFS(which for those rolling their eyes...we know).    That high sprawls on all three models.  Not sure I buy all of that.  500 usually wins, but even the ensembles have some impressive highs(HP) for ensembles.  That is a 1040+ hp on an ensemble heading south out of Alaska.  

 

[Carvers Gap]

27 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

That high has a January 88 look to it!

Man, those were the days.  Great decade with some great weather.  

[snowmaker]

1985 was glorious!

[Carvers Gap]

44 minutes ago, weathertree4u said:

I just have bad memories from February of 1994. You can still see on some trees where they were snapped about ten feet now

The good thing is I don't think at this time that we are going to see an air mass anywhere near as cold as that one nor as prolonged.  I remember driving to UT on the interstate that was down to 1-2 lanes for a couple of days, because the snow was frozen solid and wouldn't plow and wouldn't melt with salt.  I think for now, just plan on a warm SER.  I just hadn't realized that LR modeling had such strong, sprawling cold highs pushing eastward under the SER.  Now, we saw this in early January and it never verified.  So, I am taking these with a grain of salt until I see them backed up over the next 4-5 days on multiple runs.  But still, great to talk about and interesting.  On our wish list, as Mackerel noted, we want to see those big highs in play.  Without those or some really cold air, those looks don't occur.  But gives us something to watch anyway!

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, snowmaker said:

1985 was glorious!

The benchmark of what a great winter is for me.  Was sitting in Saturday school(making up snow days) with like 4-5" of new snow on the ground and still snowing.  

[Carvers Gap]

The EPO is quite negative on both the 18z GEFS and 12z EPS ensembles teleconnection graphs on WxBell.  Been trending stronger for a couple of runs now.  All of that is pretty loose optimism.  There are definitely strong reasons to be pessimistic.  Just adding some food for thought.

[mackerel_sky]

3 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

That high has a January 88 look to it!

High is down to 1038 on 0z.  Cold bias

[jaxjagman]

Looks like possibly a good system down the road" IF " the Bearing Sea rule works out.There is a system coming out of  somewhere along the Kamchatka Peninsula that will move into the Aleutians/Bering Sea in about 3-days.So if this were to  work out around the 13th of Feb we would see a trough coming back out of East Asia,these type of strong events have led into some extreme cold in the cold season and severe in the warm seasons

[Carvers Gap]

Pretty massive snowstorm for portions of middle and west Tennessee on the 0z Euro around 200.  Still way out there, but worth a look.  6z GFS has the ice/snow deal but over the Ohio River Valley on this run.  Interesting development is the 6z GEFS flipping to an eastern trough d10-15.  Ensembles are bouncing around all over the place.  Something to watch.  EPS looks like a good compromise at the moment with a weak trough out West.  Still looks like a trough out west after Feb 10th, but again its holding power is in question.  We do know from past experience it does not like to leave.  That -EPO might try to kick it if it isn't too tall.  Jax with some discussion about possibilities down the road - the next GEFS run backed those ideas up.

 

[Carvers Gap]

@Holston_River_Rambler, PV looks fairly beat-up late in the 6z run.  I wonder how well(this late in the season) the PV can spin back up?  If it doesn't split, not sure how well it reconsolidates.  If anything, one lean would be that it heads into the HB area which I wonder if ensembles are picking up on that late?

[Carvers Gap]

The 12 ICON has a snowstorm hitting west TN at the end of its run(180).  Will be interesting to see the rest of the 12z suite.  We are starting to get into at least a range where modeling can start showing at least some idea of that time frame as we get near the 7 days mark.

[AMZ8990]

8 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12 ICON has a snowstorm hitting west TN at the end of its run(180).  Will be interesting to see the rest of the 12z suite.  We are starting to get into at least a range where modeling can start showing at least some idea of that time frame as we get near the 7 days mark.

Thanks for the heads up,  haven’t had a chance to look at any models this morning  cause of work.  What’s the ICON’s track record??