February/March 2020 Winter's Last Chance Thread

[nrgjeff]

Actually phases 4-5-6 are still warm in March. I call those Indonesia or Maritime Continent. If I say West Pac I'm thinking 7-8-1 out by the Dateline. Sorry for the confusion. Maybe I'm not using convention.

17 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Thanks for the heads-up.   So, western Pac convection (as long as it is not in phase 6) is not a terrible thing in March, right?  In other words some of the MJO phase(maybe phase 5) that were warm during the heart of winter can actually be cool during later winter and early spring.    Or do you feel that the western Pac is in conflict with the prolonged cold signal?

Speaking of conflicting signals, the ECMWF did warm up the 12-20 day forecast overnight. Oh yeah Indonesia thunderstorms flared up. Diurnal or a true KW? I hope only diurnal. Would explain all the diurnal model zig zags too. West Pac out by the Dateline is still going. Winter lovers can pray it dominates.

Either way looks good next week. I-40 north of course! First storm may cut. Second comes in behind. That ought to be good along I-40 and points north. It gets TRI on both the front side and back side. That sequence won't work for KCHA; however, KTYS would have hope back side. KBNA is total crap shoot. Honestly BNA has been less lucky than CHA, which is wow!

[weathertree4u]

13 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Actually phases 4-5-6 are still warm in March. I call those Indonesia or Maritime Continent. If I say West Pac I'm thinking 7-8-1 out by the Dateline. Sorry for the confusion. Maybe I'm not using convention.

Speaking of conflicting signals, the ECMWF did warm up the 12-20 day forecast overnight. Oh yeah Indonesia thunderstorms flared up. Diurnal or a true KW? I hope only diurnal. Would explain all the diurnal model zig zags too. West Pac out by the Dateline is still going. Winter lovers can pray it dominates.

Either way looks good next week. I-40 north of course! First storm may cut. Second comes in behind. That ought to be good along I-40 and points north. It gets TRI on both the front side and back side. That sequence won't work for KCHA; however, KTYS would have hope back side. KBNA is total crap shoot. Honestly BNA has been less lucky than CHA, which is wow!

KBNA has a snow dome

[Nash_LSU]

55 minutes ago, weathertree4u said:

KBNA has a snow dome

This is an actual picture I snapped while flying in to Nashville the other day.

 

[weathertree4u]

1 hour ago, Nash_LSU said:

This is an actual picture I snapped while flying in to Nashville the other day.

 

That is it

[John1122]

Looks like 10-20 degrees BN for temps February 25th-29th. Opens a window for some possible northern stream clipper or flow snow. Been a rare thing this year.  

[Wurbus]

GEFS had a few members that were pretty big hitters the first week of March.

[jaxjagman]

4 hours ago, John1122 said:

Looks like 10-20 degrees BN for temps February 25th-29th. Opens a window for some possible northern stream clipper or flow snow. Been a rare thing this year.  

Yeah the Euro shows a clipper Mid week,we never do any good around here  but when it hits the upslopes might be ok with you

[jaxjagman]

Maybe you guys in the east might get something,thats actually a pretty potent clipper being shown.The upslopes east of us here can do wonders at times in the east of us,i know what NE winds do here,over modeled..lol

 

GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: TYS    LAT=  35.82 LON=  -83.98 ELE=   981

                                            00Z FEB22   * - APPROXIMATED
                 2 M     850    1000    FZING    SFC     SFC    6 HR    SNCVR
                 TMP     TMP     850     HGT     WIND    PCP     QPF     LIQ 
                 (C)     (C)     THK    (FT)    (KTS)   TYPES   (IN)    (IN) 
SAT 00Z 22-FEB   0.9    -3.0     130    2246    03002                   0.05    
SAT 06Z 22-FEB  -0.9     1.2     130    6940    04001           0.00    0.05    
SAT 12Z 22-FEB  -1.6     0.9     130    6329    06001           0.00    0.05    
SAT 18Z 22-FEB  10.5     1.8     132    7193    29002           0.00    0.03    
SUN 00Z 23-FEB   4.9     2.6     132    7478    20002           0.00    0.03    
SUN 06Z 23-FEB   2.0     2.1     132    7228    18002           0.00    0.03    
SUN 12Z 23-FEB   0.6     1.4     131    7772    19002           0.00    0.03    
SUN 18Z 23-FEB  10.3     2.0     133    8738    24006           0.00    0.03    
MON 00Z 24-FEB   7.8     1.9     133    8099    24006           0.00    0.02    
MON 06Z 24-FEB   5.8     1.0     132    8329    22005     RA    0.03    0.02    
MON 12Z 24-FEB   4.9     0.5     132    7493    20005     RA    0.10    0.03    
MON 18Z 24-FEB   6.3     4.2     133    8461    15004     RA    0.14    0.04    
TUE 00Z 25-FEB   7.3     6.3     134    8846    14005           0.16    0.03    
TUE 06Z 25-FEB   8.2     7.4     135    8521    13004     RA    0.16    0.03    
TUE 12Z 25-FEB   9.3     6.6     135    8288    20003     RA    0.04    0.03    
TUE 18Z 25-FEB  16.1     5.4     136   10693    26008     RA    0.02    0.03    
WED 00Z 26-FEB  11.5     5.6     135    9933    33003           0.00    0.01    
WED 06Z 26-FEB   9.9     4.7     134    8690    35003           0.00    0.01    
WED 12Z 26-FEB   8.7     3.7     134    6399    28002     RA    0.00    0.01    
WED 18Z 26-FEB  11.2     2.1     134    5754    26006           0.03    0.01    
THU 00Z 27-FEB   6.0    -1.9     132    3652    29003     RA    0.09    0.01    
THU 06Z 27-FEB   4.5    -2.7     131    3120    27003     RA    0.08    0.01    
THU 12Z 27-FEB   0.5    -8.0     129    1354    30007     SN    0.26    0.14    
THU 18Z 27-FEB   0.9   -10.4     128    1208    28012     SN    0.08    0.19    
FRI 00Z 28-FEB  -2.5   -11.8     127     386    28008           0.01    0.18    
FRI 06Z 28-FEB  -5.1   -12.7     126       0    25006           0.00    0.18    
FRI 12Z 28-FEB  -5.7   -11.8     126       0    24006           0.00    0.18    
FRI 18Z 28-FEB   1.8   -10.2     128    1479    27008           0.00    0.14    
SAT 00Z 29-FEB  -0.8    -9.6     128     983    27007           0.00    0.14    

[jaxjagman]

The battle is going to be more is,is this more westerly or NW,both the Euro and GFS shows the clipper right now anyways,this is the Euro,meh

[jaxjagman]

Better pic,of course this is still basically the long range and either one could be right and of course both could be wrong

[John1122]

GFS and Canadian are both feet in with the Northern stream. The Euro is less impressed. The Euro hasn't been good with the southern stream beyond 48 hours this year. Not had any notable Northern stream stuff to judge. 

[weathertree4u]

Still hopeful that can pull something out of the magic hat before mid-March here in the Middle TN area but real close to getting the Spring bug here and real close to buttoning up this season and curios whether anyone has any thoughts this far out on next season? 

[Save the itchy algae!]

4 hours ago, weathertree4u said:

Still hopeful that can pull something out of the magic hat before mid-March here in the Middle TN area but real close to getting the Spring bug here and real close to buttoning up this season and curios whether anyone has any thoughts this far out on next season? 

Just my opinion but I have two thoughts on that.  First is that law of averages would suggest we are due for a good season, or at least a good hitter or two.  And speaking of averages, starting next year the ‘cool’ 80’s drop off the 30 year climate data charts which means we will likely see a change in averages, perhaps skewing more cool since the 90’s and 00’s were so warm.  Oceans will probably continue their warm phases which will continue to skew the ‘global’ temperatures though.

[Carvers Gap]

4 hours ago, weathertree4u said:

Still hopeful that can pull something out of the magic hat before mid-March here in the Middle TN area but real close to getting the Spring bug here and real close to buttoning up this season and curios whether anyone has any thoughts this far out on next season? 

We have been kicking that around a bit in Jax's ENSO thread.  Mixed signals at this range and understandably so.  I am willing to sacrifice next winter if we can get a strong La Nina.  We have not had a moderate/strong La Nina in several years.  A weak La Nina often has severe extreme of both heat and cold.  Moderate and strong La Ninas tend to favor very warm patterns in the East, but the following winters can be quite cold.  Basically, we need to drop the ENSO equivalent of an ice cube in ENSO region 4.  A Nina would likely help the SST the gradient in the Pacific (again, TyphoonTip has talked about the lack of gradient during the past two winters).    I am not convinced next winter will be an improvement, but if we get a La Nina...it could set the stage for some good winters.  One area that will be interesting is whether strong blocking develops as there is some correlation to that happening the year or two after a solar min.  I would lean AN for next winter(with cold extremes embedded), but that is super weak sauce from this range.  LOL.  

[Carvers Gap]

Looks like we might get some rain changing to snow with the system around the 27th - nothing huge at this point but that could change as that has the potential to be stronger.  That sets the stage for any northern stream energy that follows to be snow.  Models have hinted at some weak, embedded energy coming through after the cutter and inland runner combo pass through on the 27th .   If that  energy is real, that is probably our best chance at snow.  It is worth noting that energy at this time of year is often under-modeled at this range in my experience and also that latitude will come well north.  So, just some things to think about.  We want energy to get buried to our south and work back this direction.  

[Carvers Gap]

The 0z CMC shows that situation quite well as does the 0z Euro.

[PowellVolz]

LOL at Knoxville


.

[jaxjagman]

Euro has a weak clipper the end of the work week next week,could get some snow in some parts of the Valley if its right.Problem is tho, here, is seemingly the trough axis with possibly a more NW flow,so the QPFS wouldnt be that fantastic,beggars cant be choosey tho right?

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Hot off the raindancewx press, found it the NE panic room:

"Long term, there is a weak correlation between solar activity (annualized) and min/max of Arctic sea ice extent. So the current (relatively) large extent, plus soon to be rising solar activity both support a -NAO in winter next year. If you annualized solar activity to July-June, each year following the min since 1950 has seen a somewhat to very -NAO in winter."

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Hot off the raindancewx press, found it the NE panic room:

"Long term, there is a weak correlation between solar activity (annualized) and min/max of Arctic sea ice extent. So the current (relatively) large extent, plus soon to be rising solar activity both support a -NAO in winter next year. If you annualized solar activity to July-June, each year following the min since 1950 has seen a somewhat to very -NAO in winter."

Interesting.  Definitely supports comments made yesterday in this thread and some off-and-on discussions in the sub-forum.  

[franklin NCwx]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Interesting.  Definitely supports comments made yesterday in this thread and some off-and-on discussions in the sub-forum.  

That's what I'm looking for. We can overcome a -pna with a strong -nao. See December 2010 and January 11 for example. That was a nina following a moderate nino winter.  

[weathertree4u]

47 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

That's what I'm looking for. We can overcome a -pna with a strong -nao. See December 2010 and January 11 for example. That was a nina following a moderate nino winter.  

So, the pattern of warm winters could break next year? I would think that statistically, if not next year, then certainly the next we should see some difference. 

[Save the itchy algae!]

4 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Hot off the raindancewx press, found it the NE panic room:

"Long term, there is a weak correlation between solar activity (annualized) and min/max of Arctic sea ice extent. So the current (relatively) large extent, plus soon to be rising solar activity both support a -NAO in winter next year. If you annualized solar activity to July-June, each year following the min since 1950 has seen a somewhat to very -NAO in winter."

Is this person suggesting there’s a (relatively) large extent of arctic sea ice? As it stands it looks like we are currently tied roughly with 2011/12 with the lowest extent on record.  That’s extreme relativity there.  Also while we are expected to see increased solar activity it is my understanding that we are also in a century-class minimum so our increasing activity may still resemble low solar output conditions.  
 

sorry to take this off topic, I’m sure it’s a strong correlation but maybe not the best year/conditions to test the strength of it.

[WinterWonderland]

Maybe start a separate thread for 2020/2021 season?

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Fair enough, I started the NAO bit this AM, so will get back on track with the 12z UKMET

 run that looks interesting for KY and parts of W TN:

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Actually looked fairly interesting with the energy dropping in toward the end of its run:

[jaxjagman]

National Weather Service Nashville TN
156 PM CST Sun Feb 23 2020

.DISCUSSION...

The last few days have been an unexpected change to doing the
forecast. Models have been really consistent regarding expected
weather today, tomorrow and really into the middle of this week. As
advertised, there are some light returns on radar this afternoon,
none of which are amounting to much as it`s taking time for the
atmosphere to saturate. Tonight, look for intensity and coverage to
increase, especially after midnight and as we close in on commute
time tomorrow morning. Forecast soundings maintain a tiny bit of
instability with which to work and this should amount to a few
rumbles of thunder tomorrow afternoon and early evening. I went
ahead and removed thunder mentions after 9 pm Monday as an
elevated cap develops after that.

Tuesday still looks dry and if there`s any sway in the models, it`s
in regards to Wednesday`s clipper system. Models have backed off
a little on QPF, which is good news in relation to snowfall
potential Wednesday evening. I still maintain the idea that
Wednesday`s high temperature occurs in the morning and by 00Z
Thursday, temperatures should be such that a change over to at
least a rain/snow mix will be possible. I`ve got some light
accumulations on the Plateau, but QPFs are exiting the mid-state
pretty quick now. I`ll keep about a half inch over there by
sunrise Thursday.

The forecast through next weekend is still pretty benign, with
another clipper possible Friday night that shouldn`t amount to much
and though temperatures will react to the passage of these
clippers, there aren`t any real extremes, cold or warm. What is
interesting is both the GFS and Euro have a big system ramping up
for the start of next week. This is way out in the forecast, but
it`s worth mentioning as both portray a fairly dynamic system in
the works. More at 11.

[jaxjagman]

Kudos to the control,its been all over the upcoming long range pattern the last few days now, the Euro and GFS are showing this in the long range other than timing which should be expected.Looks to be a potent shortwave trough coming through   that will dump more rain into the Valley with possibly some thunderstorms and would bring a CF down and possibly bring clippers with it for snow lovers,if it stays like its showing

[jaxjagman]

That is one wicked CF,look how it strengtens into a 978MB.if its right.This is mentioned up above with this sytem

 

 

[nrgjeff]

Saturday Feb. 29 has echos of Sat. Feb. 8 for the Valley. Cold air in place instead of that JIT crap for starters. Models correctly default to no snow Valley climo. We'll have to watch it as it evolves. Full and partial thicknesses are buried. 850/700 mb charts have neutral to slight WAA while remaining cold. Little far out to look at soundings but what the heck? Deep moist layer reaches forecast DGZ. Just need some isentropic lift that zone, likely verbatim but Day 6. We'll see!