February/March 2020 Winter's Last Chance Thread

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Hurricane PV:

Euro 10hPa wind forecast, days 7 - 10

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Ok, so no one will probably believe me on this, and I don't blame you, but the CFS, three weeks ago, was already showing this trough in the SW pattern. I think it was even back when it was showing the MJO doing the big loop through 8 and 1. I remember because it looked weird to me that it would drop a trough there with that MJO progression. I wish I had taken a gif of it then, just to go back as see if it did ok with the overall pattern idea. In no way talking specific storms at 700 hour leads, but if nothing else a western ridge would keep us from being on the right entrance region of a sub tropical jet and keep the flooding at bay:

Above image is the CFS pattern change 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

And while we're looking at the CFS, might as well check out why it does that:

Looks like it drops the SPV towards sea of Okhutsk/ Aleutians, by then splits it and a part drops into Hudson's Bay. 

Again, I don't necessarily have faith in any particular CFS solution, more of an experiment this time since I wish I had done it when the CFS was showing the current pattern at a long lead. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

And to be fair to the oft maligned CFS, the Euro weeklies show a similar progression, but less amplified and one that starts further out in time. 

Let's not forget last year either, when the Euro weeklies had their tail(s)? handed to em by the CFS weeklies. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

And finally, my knee hurt and woke me up at 2AM, a sure sign a pattern change is incoming in approx. 2 weeks.

Only 2/5ths joking. 

[Carvers Gap]

It is the EPS vs all comers this morning including its own operational.  The operational finally has the cold front on the 14th.  Want to see just how bad the Euro bias is in the Southwest.  Go to Tropical Tidbits and select hour 120 from the 0z Euro op run this am.   Then, select the 500 heights anomaly and North America view.  Then, click previous runs.  Goes from a trough stuck in the West to a cold front in the East w/ twenty  to forty degree BN departures at times over the TN and Ohio River valleys instead of a massive SER.   Still looks like a cutter that precedes that cold, but as we saw this week a trough with cold air during this active pattern can produce.  Right now looks bone dry after it rolls through, but who knows.  And let's be clear, it is not just the Euro that had the problem with the SW trough, the GFS had it as well but corrected quicker.  For sure, the MJO is lousy...but February is a month where pretty much everything has to be watched if cold manages to get into the pattern - especially with this really active pattern in terms of precip.  BTW, I take the EPS against all comers....but it is worthy of note that the 0z Euro, 6z GFS, and 0z CMC don't seem to be huge fans of the SER through 240.  I feel like a broken record, but I think modeling has been fooling around with that Southwest cut-off and the actual outcome is different than a cut-off sitting there for 16 days(some hyperbole intended) and just spinning.  I think what we will see is what we saw this past week.  We see warmth build, but a trough manages to make it eastward.  Might even see 2-3 more of those before the month ends,  beginning with the time frame of the 14th.   

[Carvers Gap]

Will wait for the ECMF MJO to update as well and then add some further comments.  It either needs to be at low amplitude or hustling out of 5/6 into 7 or COD.  Right now, we will take the COD.  And to further illustrate that the MJO is a great tool and is driving the NA pattern, but it can have its hiccups...Chattanooga just received 3-4" of snow during phase 5 of the MJO at low amplitude.  

[jaxjagman]

Starting to look like the GEFS has been right all along with the MJO

[TellicoWx]

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

It is the EPS vs all comers this morning including its own operational.  The operational finally has the cold front on the 14th.  Want to see just how bad the Euro bias is in the Southwest.  Go to Tropical Tidbits and select hour 120 from the 0z Euro op run this am.   Then, select the 500 heights anomaly and North America view.  Then, click previous runs.  Goes from a trough stuck in the West to a cold front in the East w/ twenty  to forty degree BN departures at times over the TN and Ohio River valleys instead of a massive SER.   Still looks like a cutter that precedes that cold, but as we saw this week a trough with cold air during this active pattern can produce.  Right now looks bone dry after it rolls through, but who knows.  And let's be clear, it is not just the Euro that had the problem with the SW trough, the GFS had it as well but corrected quicker.  For sure, the MJO is lousy...but February is a month where pretty much everything has to be watched if cold manages to get into the pattern - especially with this really active pattern in terms of precip.  BTW, I take the EPS against all comers....but it is worthy of note that the 0z Euro, 6z GFS, and 0z CMC don't seem to be huge fans of the SER through 240.  I feel like a broken record, but I think modeling has been fooling around with that Southwest cut-off and the actual outcome is different than a cut-off sitting there for 16 days(some hyperbole intended) and just spinning.  I think what we will see is what we saw this past week.  We see warmth build, but a trough manages to make it eastward.  Might even see 2-3 more of those before the month ends,  beginning with the time frame of the 14th.   

This is definitely a repeating pattern I wouldn't wanna see (last week), just from a rainfall stand point. But, unfortunately, I think you may end up correct.

[jaxjagman]

The phases of the MJO in Feb

[Holston_River_Rambler]

1 hour ago, jaxjagman said:

Starting to look like the GEFS has been right all along with the MJO

Maybe we can get some blocking going, (but better placed this time) again if the WWB verifies and adds some momentum:

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Will wait for the ECMF MJO to update

Looks like it finally did, it is really trying to creep it toward the better phases

 

[Carvers Gap]

3 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Looks like it finally did, it is really trying to creep it toward the better phases

 

Not exactly high amplitude, eh?  What is weird the GFS and CMC at 12z(and for many runs prior) appear to show a pattern that has less influence by the MJO as evidenced by the SER be less strong and cold fronts showing some ability to push eastward beginning around hour 120.   And then where is the MJO headed....trajectory is towards cold phases?  I have said for a week or so that this pattern after the 10th had not looked modeled correctly.  That cold front on the 14th makes me even more suspicious.  It is almost like the November cold pattern is battling the MJO.  However, the weaker that MJO gets...the stronger the November pattern gets.  Finally, I think the changing wavelengths are currently giving models fits and about to get worse.  Not saying this is the case this time around, but when wavelengths change...storms seems to be embedded in those changes.  

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, TellicoWx said:

This is definitely a repeating pattern I wouldn't wanna see (last week), just from a rainfall stand point. But, unfortunately, I think you may end up correct.

I am hoping that changing wavelengths will spare us further events like that.  Looks like we may well have one more rainy system this week though.  This weather pattern probably is a wild one.  Flood warnings and WWAs existing at the same time in the same region is an active pattern.  LOL.  Good call on the weekend snow, BTW.

[Carvers Gap]

Just sifting through some of the MJO plots on the CPC site, one trend I notice...most of those MJO members end up with trajectories pointing at cold phases.  Something to watch.  I wonder if the GFS and CMC have caught that trend early and are maybe ahead of the game a bit.  Will be interesting to see if the 12z Euro will eventually break down the eastern ridge like it did at 0z.  Would be nice to have only 100 hours of a SER vs 10 days.  Seems to me that the Southwest eternal cut-off may well be a partial error.  If so,  makes sense for the trough to get kicked eastward periodically with a western ridge popping from time to time as it has to fight a potentially low amplitude MJO.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Euro wants to park the TPV over Alaska, but I could also see a situation where it is kicking energy out and is about to drop the TPV more toward the Aleutians:

At least it kicks enough of a trough through to shut of the spigot. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

TBH though, this is kind of what the TPV has been doing all winter though. It gets kicked out of AK, then rolls overhead, we get a shot at winter as it rolls by and parks over Greenland, only to see it rotate over the top and back to AK. 

[John1122]

Not anything wintry on the Euro but 5-10 inches of rain basically valley wide over the 10 days. Basically everyone from Murfreesboro east is 300-400 percent above normal for the last 30 days according to the AHPS Precip Analysis maps.  If we get to February 19th with 10-15 inches of rain in the bucket for the month, that will be staggering for flooding unless spring turns dry.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

5 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

At least it kicks enough of a trough through to shut of the spigot. 

Well, maybe I spoke too soon:

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Yeah, what John said. 

[jaxjagman]

8 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

The phases of the MJO in Feb

 

[Carvers Gap]

6 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Euro wants to park the TPV over Alaska, but I could also see a situation where it is kicking energy out and is about to drop the TPV more toward the Aleutians:

At least it kicks enough of a trough through to shut of the spigot. 

AK vortex seems legit.  However, seeing some signs of a trough going into the eastern US later this month.  Need to really watch the MJO next few days.  If it heads across the COD towards eight, might signal another trough.  Jax has that noted above.  Would be interesting to see a trough show up about the time the Alaska vortex gets dislodged.  Most ensembles are hinting at a trough around the 24th in the East in addition to the 14th.  Looks like a cold air intrusion about every ten days.  At any right, mowed my yard today and started getting the garden ready.  Went ahead and worked on one of our chimneys today that had been showing some signs of leaking.  Wasn't planning on that, but sometimes things show up unexpectedly.  I mowed the yard, because I had to take the mower out to get the ladder for the roof.  LOL.  Figured if I had it out, might as well just mow.    

 

[jaxjagman]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

AK vortex seems legit.  However, seeing some signs of a trough going into the eastern US later this month.  Need to really watch the MJO next few days.  If it heads across the COD towards eight, might signal another trough.  Jax has that noted above.  Would be interesting to see a trough show up about the time the Alaska vortex gets dislodged.  Most ensembles are hinting at a trough around the 24th in the East in addition to the 14th.  Looks like a cold air intrusion about every ten days.  At any right, mowed my yard today and started getting the garden ready.  Went ahead and worked on one of our chimneys today that had been showing some signs of leaking.  Wasn't planning on that, but sometimes things show up unexpectedly.  I mowed the yard, because I had to take the mower out to get the ladder for the roof.  LOL.  Figured if I had it out, might as well just mow.    

 

If you look at the pattern upcoming.You have a trough going through East China into Korea,but this is still in the long range so much can change.This might be one of the strongest signals we've seen out of this region all WINTER year,for a change anyways right now we don't see ridging.By the looks right now anyways for a change the GEFS  shows the pna going positive basically right now past the middle of the month.So this at least should be some sort of trough in the east,around the 25th give or take

[jaxjagman]

Also without any -AO being shown is this severe or actually winter or more or less like the system we just saw recently,if you want winter the MJO is still not your friend.,,IMHO

[Mr. Kevin]

You would think with changing wavelengths that we get some exciting model runs because if the trough is too far east, we get just dry flow but can help dry out. Its amazes me we are still stuck.

On 2/4/2020 at 5:39 PM, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Happy hour also delivers on the strat:

 

[Mr. Kevin]

10 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Also without any -AO being shown is this severe or actually winter or more or less like the system we just saw recently,if you want winter the MJO is still not your friend.,,IMHO

Jax, do you think we can get a pattern that supports a legit winter event or ULL before we run out of time?

[jaxjagman]

28 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Jax, do you think we can get a pattern that supports a legit winter event or ULL before we run out of time?

My problem is,is with the MJO into the warm phases.When the MJO gets into these warm phases this time of season it starts to build a SER into our parts.This trough seemingly is going to depend on how strong the SER  is plus how strong will this trough will be to combat the height falls.JMO

[jaxjagman]

Meant to add this pic also

[Carvers Gap]

The 0z EPS has a pretty strong signal now around 288 of a trough moving into the East.  That is a new look.  Let's see if it holds at 12z.  Has a trough in Alaska as well.  Looks like an ensemble with two camps:  Alaska and the eastern US.  The Eastern US camp was barely there yesterday at 12z.   Again, my guess is that these troughs will have little staying power.  My hope would be is that one scenario that ensembles are seeing is a direct discharge of the AK vortex into the eastern US.  As, we saw with the last one, a deep trough with even marginally cold air can be really potent.  BTW, I miscalculated the trough frequency yesterday.  The last trough rolled through on the 7th.  Next one appears to be the 14th.   If one believes the global ensembles, next one is the 22nd.  So, about every 7-8 days a shot of cold is modeled to arrive with the 14th trough being more like a post storm front.  As noted above by other posters, the other global ensembles have a strong signal for a pattern relaxation during the last week of February.  Can that help us?  IDK, that is late in the game.  However, it is getting to be shoulder season and this is a time of year where anything can happen, not excluding severe followed by winter.  Wavelengths are changing up.  If we manage to get a non-hostile MJO, changing wavelengths, an active storm pattern, and cold periodically into the East...that is not a bad combo.  Obviously by the end of the month some are really fighting climatology and time of day then really matters.  There is a history of late season storms from time to time in this area...so something to watch.   If we want to get in the game truly, we want to see the EPS speed up its look.

[Carvers Gap]

These are fairly significant trends in the ECMF MJO as it almost makes it into phase 8.   At this point, the MJO is beginning to hint at a large scale pattern change and not just a window of opportunity.   JUST using the ECMF MJO(there is another version ECMM which is slightly less bullish which uses climatology...ECMF is just the pure ensemble run I "think").   This actually has support from both the GEFS which is likely overly amped, but headed in the same direction.  It also lends support to what John was saying earlier in the thread that once the MJO hits phase seven, it gets cold after that w a lag possibly built in.  So, the signal for cold during week 4 of February is now a bit stronger IMHO.  Let's see if it holds and trends even better.  The GEFS has been sort of correct in the higher amplitude of 5, but seems out there with high amplitude 6/7.  So, a mini-victory for the GEFS up to this point.  Either way, both the ECMF and GEFS are heading towards better phases in about ten days or sooner.  That is also supported by ensemble runs hinting at changes.  Always good to be aware that sometimes modeling can jump the gun....but thought this was worth a share.  If true, this would likely provide us with a potential window of more than just 2-3 days but counterweighted by climatology being less favorable by the day at that timeframe.  Good news to see modeling hustling out of "bad" phases of the MJO.