February/March 2020 Winter's Last Chance Thread

[Snownado]

43 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Sun angel at the first of February?


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The sun angle is much higher than it was in Dec. Its equivalent to around the beginning of Nov now.

[John1122]

11 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Maybe they meant time of day? 

I honestly thought precip was moving in early morning down south. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

I honestly thought precip was moving in early morning down south. 

Me too. Just trying to figure something out for why they would write that, lol. 

Sunrise at Chatt is ~730 am so should be primo time for anything to stick 

[PowellVolz]

The sun angle is much higher than it was in Dec. Its equivalent to around the beginning of Nov now.

 

I’ve just never heard that said as a limiting factor during our best climatological period for snow.

 

 

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[TellicoWx]

Only argument I can come up with of the top of my head for sun angle in the first half of Feb would be if the precip shield is more broken..in between bands if the thermal profile is borderline, then it could add just enough heat to the asphalt to cause melt. Shady areas would still stay covered for the most part. Which is what i believe they were alluding too...if models continue to show the snow, i could see them adding some accumulation but mainly on grassy surfaces in the wording. Also, this disturbance is just started appearing on short range models again. So, they are probably wanting to see if they continue the trend or if it was just a blip. Another thing is most AFDs are written close to when the 12z suite is finishing up, so the data from this morning wasn't as good for snow lovers.

[TellicoWx]

8 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I honestly thought precip was moving in early morning down south. 

Yeah that was the laughable part, plus the switch over. Not saying it's not possible, but thos soundings looked fairly decent for temps to hang around 32-33 and dont see any warm nose.

[PowellVolz]

Yeah that was the laughable part, plus the switch over. Not saying it's not possible, but thos soundings looked fairly decent for temps to hang around 32-33 and dont see any warm nose.

25-27 for my low temp tonight. If snow is falling in those temps with no sun at all today I think snow stick to the roads.


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[PowellVolz]

12z WRF



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[TellicoWx]

Good example of sun angle was today here...areas below 950' still has a light dusting in shade spots, areas above 950' have between 1" to 3" on the ground. Difference was the thermal layer, above 950' hovered between 32/33, while below was closer to 34/35. Sun angle had little to no effect where the thermal was closer to freezing between snow showers. Also, looks like the Skyway got hammered today. Crazy considering the Tellico River had close to a top 5 crest yesterday and a few mudslides.

[TellicoWx]

As for the long range...18z GFS is a nightmare for flooding for the Eastern valley.

[TellicoWx]

Not what you wanna see right now after the last day or so...18z GFS

[realdeal2414]

36 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

12z WRF



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Powell...I assume this map is tomorrow night, early Sunday?

[dwagner88]

9 minutes ago, realdeal2414 said:

Powell...I assume this map is tomorrow night, early Sunday?

Yes. I would at the minimum cut this in half. We won't get 10:1 anywhere except the highest elevations.

[TellicoWx]

9 minutes ago, realdeal2414 said:

Powell...I assume this map is tomorrow night, early Sunday?

Looks like the ARW2..the accumulation on it starts just after daybreak Saturday morning. It will be moved out by tomorrow night.

[TellicoWx]

5 minutes ago, dwagner88 said:

Yes. I would at the minimum cut this in half. We won't get 10:1 anywhere except the highest elevations.

Sounding from the ARW2 would support 10:1 even at the lowest elevations..problem with it is probably way over juiced. Sounding for 9am Sat morning over the southern valley.

[TellicoWx]

Moisture aloft is building back over N MS currently..not sure if its reaching the ground.

[PowellVolz]

Yes. I would at the minimum cut this in half. We won't get 10:1 anywhere except the highest elevations.

 

I disagree. I think mountains will be up to 15-1 with their temps in the low to mid 20’s for highs. That map is for tomorrow morning through early afternoon. While we probably won’t see that much, the point was this mod was much further south its last run.

 

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[PowellVolz]

Powell...I assume this map is tomorrow night, early Sunday?

This map is for what might fall tomorrow


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[PowellVolz]

Is their something in the northern stream getting pulled into this system? Precip just broke out over Missouri



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[Holston_River_Rambler]

I think that's another piece of energy that's keeping the one we want to amp up, from amping like some of the models were showing a few days ago. 

The northern one is timed just right (our typical luck) to keep the southern one from digging and turning the corner. 

[PowellVolz]

I think that's another piece of energy that's keeping the one we want to amp up, from amping like some of the models were showing a few days ago. 

The northern one is timed just right (our typical luck) to keep the southern one from digging and turning the corner. 

Crap.... I wasn’t looking at it that way. I was thinking it might pull the southern wave NW.


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[Holston_River_Rambler]

The good news is that at least the ++++++++++++++++++++++NAO is encouraging last nights storm to git, git, git on out of here, like a blond squatch, so it kinda sorts acts like a 50/50

[Holston_River_Rambler]

2 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Crap.... I wasn’t looking at it that way. I was thinking it might pull the southern wave NW

That's another way to look at it too. They are working together, so the southern one might have been too amped if the N one wasn't suppressing it. 

[TellicoWx]

00z HRRR looking better in its run so far

* vs the previous couple runs...still not as good as the 18z

[jaxjagman]

Don't mean to take away yalls winter talk in the East.But looking at the upcoming pattern seems like another potential robust KW might pass through just like the last one towards the middle of the month,maybe we can get another shot of winter if we don't drown.The MJO seriously looks like it's going to get stuck around   East of the IDL,and should go back into COD unlike what the GEFS is showing

[dwagner88]

2 hours ago, TellicoWx said:

Not what you wanna see right now after the last day or so...18z GFS

 Can I cut this one in half? Or maybe thirds?

 

 

I’ve reached 32 IMBY with broken clouds overhead. I’m not usually a big believer in radiational cooling before a precipitation event, but after 5 years of whiffs I’ll take what I can get. 

[TellicoWx]

16 minutes ago, dwagner88 said:

 Can I cut this one in half? Or maybe thirds?

 

 

I’ve reached 32 IMBY with broken clouds overhead. I’m not usually a big believer in radiational cooling before a precipitation event, but after 5 years of whiffs I’ll take what I can get. 

I would gladly cut it to a 1/10 at this point lol. Yeah it seems like it's been a bad stretch here in SE TN for awhile now. I think cutting the earlier snow totals fits well with all the combined model guidance, but mainly because the best FGEN forcing and lift passes too far south. Best outcome would be around an inch for McMinn/Monroe, with the border counties along TN/GA closer to 2".

[Uncle Nasty]

Reading the discussions from Peachtree City they seem to be holding firm on their belief of 2" snow accumulation in N. Georgia, including areas at or near the border around Chattanooga. I would really love a surprise around here, even it it does melt

off by the afternoon. We'll know something in about 9 hours or so. We can always hope and just see what happens. We moved into our new house in Ooltewah in June 2016. In that time we have had a combined total of just under 1/2" of snow. Yes, less than 1/2" of snow in 3 1/2 years. . I just want to see some white ground cover at our house. We managed a slight dusting twice on the cold hood of our vehicle.

 

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[McMinnWx]

Will they issue a WWA for the valley?

[McMinnWx]

There it is. Nevermind.