February/March 2020 Winter's Last Chance Thread

[weathertree4u]

The latest run of the GFS does not disappoint in providing yet a different solution in the long range. I need to move to Minneapolis so that I can be assured of getting my snow fix every year. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

NAM still NAMifying this AM with the Thursday wave:

Really interested to se if the radar actually looks like what the NAM has been showing for a few days for the Thursday wave when all that precip just materializes to the west of us. 

NAM kind of looks like the UKMET with the Saturday thing now:

Like John said the Euro did flop on the Saturday storm, but the energy is still there, just favoring the more suppressed solutions the EPS had been offering. TBH I'd rather have it looking a little weak and suppressed. sheared at this range, so at least we have some wiggle room for it not to go north as it verifies a little NW as stronger than modeled. Absolutely no guarantees too doesn't verify as a washed out, weak wave, but at least it has room to improve now. 

EPS, according to Bob Chill when Ji in the MA forum was panicking about the 18z EPS last night, usually follows the OP at this shorter range, so not unexpected to see it back off some, but it still looks as good as it did yesterday at 0z, but not quite as good as it did yesterday at 12z:

Knoxville snow hole in effect again, and don't even ask about Chattanooga or Memphis.

 

 

 

 

[weathertree4u]

2 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

NAM still NAMifying this AM with the Thursday wave:

Really interested to se if the radar actually looks like what the NAM has been showing for a few days for the Thursday wave when all that precip just materializes to the west of us. 

NAM kind of looks like the UKMET with the Saturday thing now:

Like John said the Euro did flop on the Saturday storm, but the energy is still there, just favoring the more suppressed solutions the EPS had been offering. TBH I'd rather have it looking a little weak and suppressed. sheared at this range, so at least we have some wiggle room for it not to go north as it verifies a little NW as stronger than modeled. Absolutely no guarantees too doesn't verify as a washed out, weak wave, but at least it has room to improve now. 

EPS, according to Bob Chill when Ji in the MA forum was panicking about the 18z EPS last night, usually follows the OP at this shorter range, so not unexpected to see it back off some, but it still looks as good as it did yesterday at 0z, but not quite as good as it did yesterday at 12z:

Knoxville snow hole in effect again, and don't even ask about Chattanooga or Memphis.

 

 

 

 

Join the club! The Nashville snowdome has been in place for years now

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Further afield, in the magical tropical lands, looks like a cyclone has stolen our convection in the western Indian Ocean, but some of the convection in the eastern Indian Ocean is rolling west. Maybe one of those equatorial Rossby waves? Still not sure what is what. 

Still kinda scattered in the West Pac, but at least some convection in the 7ish maybe 8 areas?

 

 

GFS still likes the idea of at least a displacement of the SPV toward us for once:

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

One thing about the overnight ensembles, even if the 500 mb pattern mean doesn't look great, we have all the cold air on our side of the globe, any shake up to the pattern will hopefully drop it down in the CONUS, can we keep it out of the west though?

GEFS and EPS 850 temps:

[jaxjagman]

2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Further afield, in the magical tropical lands, looks like a cyclone has stolen our convection in the western Indian Ocean, but some of the convection in the eastern Indian Ocean is rolling west. Maybe one of those equatorial Rossby waves? Still not sure what is what. 

Still kinda scattered in the West Pac, but at least some convection in the 7ish maybe 8 areas?

 

 

GFS still likes the idea of at least a displacement of the SPV toward us for once:

 

 

MJO and KW like you said

[Carvers Gap]

Definitely not good modeling trends after this weekend.   MJO regions are just lit, and have been all winter. Zero sign of that letting up during the next two weeks.   We noted during the summer that was a big risk, and it certainly has been a problem all winter.  Jeff hit the nail on the head with the IOD flaring up.    Like throwing gasoline on a fire in the warm phases of the MJO.  Really there are a few ways that we can still catch a storm:

1.  Changing wavelengths later this month and into March.

2.  Cold overwhelms the pattern(not seeing that in any shape or form at this moment)

Will give it a few more days and then time to turn my attention to the garden.  @Stovepipe been a great winter for turnips.  Mine are still alive.  Heck, I have a lot of stuff still alive since fall.  Fava beans will go in once the ground dries out a bit.  Seeds are sitting on my counter ready to go.  Going to start my seeds this year for tomatoes and peppers.  Been a while since I have done that, but we are losing places that have offered good diversity.  So, going to get back to growing my own stuff.   

[Holston_River_Rambler]

and the run wasn't even over yet, lol:

[PisgahNCWeather]

That is incredible!

[Holston_River_Rambler]

A friend of mine and I were sitting in my office and he brought up the great Harriman flood of the emory river in March 1929. Thought I'd look at NCEP for upper air similarities:

March 1929:

 

 

[nrgjeff]

Friday seems to have perked up on cyclonic flow aloft, lingering moisture, and a little short-wave. Upper Plateau to Mountains is favored, along with well north of I-40. Boundary layer struggles continue.

Saturday downshifted some models, probably because that short-wave fills with time. However the column is forecast colder than it was yesterday. Saturday looks better along I-40. Thickness, partials, 700 mb are all colder. OK it might snow a little in Chattanooga, but boundary layer likely denies sticking.

GFS totally trashed the 6-15 day. Dammit! Hopefully that convection over Indonesia is just diurnal. If so the GFS got tricked like SFO celebrating early! If not, we are SFO and the MJO is the relentless Chiefs offense.

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

A friend of mine and I were sitting in my office and he brought up the great Harriman flood of the emory river in March 1929. Thought I'd look at NCEP for upper air similarities:

March 1929:

 

 

That following May featured a devastating Tornado just to my east in Rye Cove, Scott county, Va...It struck a School there and killed several children  (12 and 1 Teacher) along with multiple injuries. 

https://www.encyclopediavirginia.org/Rye_Cove_Cyclone

[Holston_River_Rambler]

9 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

That following May featured a devastating Tornado just to my east in Rye Cove, Scott county, Va...It struck a School there and killed several children  (12 and 1 Teacher) along with multiple injuries. 

My grandad was a principle in Scott county schools at that time. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

If you thought the GFS was bad at 15 days with flooding potential, wait till you see what the Euro has by day 10

[Holston_River_Rambler]

[Carvers Gap]

39 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Thankful for the downslope.  Just 9.5" of rain over the next ten days. LOL.  You folks on the Plateau are going to need an ark.  

[Carvers Gap]

And you all know, we are going to hit La Nina and this spigot is just going to shut-off and go bone dry for months - probably late summer into fall. 

[Carvers Gap]

And if they get an appreciable amounts of snow at elevation on Friday and Saturday...going to be a mess with that much rain hitting it.  Whew.  No fishing in the mountains for weeks!

[PowellVolz]

And if they get an appreciable amounts of snow at elevation on Friday and Saturday...going to be a mess with that much rain hitting it.  Whew.  No fishing in the mountains for weeks!

No golf for a month as of now.


.

[nrgjeff]

Flooding might be worth a thread, or go ahead in the existing Flooding thread. Keeps this one winter. Then we got severe going too in that thread. Mississippi sup on the marine warm front as I type. 

12Z Euro came in similar Friday and Saturday. Cyclonic flow aloft with short-wave Friday. Another wave from the southwest Saturday. Both look cold enough Plateau and Mountains.

[Carvers Gap]

I still remain unconvinced modeling has the pattern handled pafter the ridge early next week. The 12z EPS again tries to push 2m temps BN after 300.  The trough is basically gone in the lower 48.  500 looks zonal but temps look cold then.  

[Carvers Gap]

Check that...was in a hurry.  Trough is out of the West and in the northern Plains but shallow.

[BNAwx]

1 hour ago, nrgjeff said:

Flooding might be worth a thread, or go ahead in the existing Flooding thread. Keeps this one winter. Then we got severe going too in that thread. Mississippi sup on the marine warm front as I type. 

12Z Euro came in similar Friday and Saturday. Cyclonic flow aloft with short-wave Friday. Another wave from the southwest Saturday. Both look cold enough Plateau and Mountains.

May have to go visit the parents in Cookeville in hopes of seeing more than a wet flake or two.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

at least the NAM still looks nice for the third wave deformation zone or whatever it is: 

heck Nashville is looking better than me:

the Saturday storm has fizzled now across most reliable models. 

 

[Stovepipe]

6 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Will give it a few more days and then time to turn my attention to the garden.  @Stovepipe been a great winter for turnips.  Mine are still alive.  Heck, I have a lot of stuff still alive since fall.  Fava beans will go in once the ground dries out a bit.  Seeds are sitting on my counter ready to go.  Going to start my seeds this year for tomatoes and peppers.  Been a while since I have done that, but we are losing places that have offered good diversity.  So, going to get back to growing my own stuff.   

I feel you brother.  This year I'm trying something I've not done before with cool season stuff.  In addition to direct sowing, I've started around 400 plugs indoors under LED lights.  Got several different lettuces, mustard, chard, broccoli, cabbage, bok choy, etc. that I'm going to put into no-dig beds in 4 or 5 weeks.  It'll be interesting to see how they perform compared to direct sowing the seeds.  I'm going all in on peas this year too.  I always seem to get this stuff started too late, hopefully this year is more productive in the cool season.  I also got some heirloom tomatoes going under LED over the holidays.  I don't expect the full flavor to be there but I'd like to keep some indoor maters going year round.  Always experimenting!

Sorry for the off topic.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

18z Euro looks a little better for the middle TN and E KY folks for Thursday:

[John1122]

Finally loaded in this thread. The 0z NAM is back to widespread 2+ inches with a 5 inch dollop on the Plateau. 

[John1122]

The GFS got a little better too and the RGEM is catching on as well. The 3k has some 6+ inch lollipops at elevation. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Secondary disruption of the SPV finally starting to get into Euro range: 

 

GFS still has it too and now looks similar to the Euro with a displacement to the south:

[weathertree4u]

9 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Secondary disruption of the SPV finally starting to get into Euro range: 

 

GFS still has it too and now looks similar to the Euro with a displacement to the south:

Possible impact end February?