February/March 2020 Winter's Last Chance Thread

[dwagner88]

58 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

I would gladly cut it to a 1/10 at this point lol. Yeah it seems like it's been a bad stretch here in SE TN for awhile now. I think cutting the earlier snow totals fits well with all the combined model guidance, but mainly because the best FGEN forcing and lift passes too far south. Best outcome would be around an inch for McMinn/Monroe, with the border counties along TN/GA closer to 2".

I like the way this sounds. I moved recently and my backyard fence is on the Georgia state line. It’s always interesting to see the difference in forecasts. FFC is far more liberal with wx advisories than MRX. 

[TellicoWx]

WWA out for the southern valley:

 

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Morristown TN
941 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2020


TNZ081>086-098>101-081100-
/O.EXB.KMRX.WW.Y.0004.200208T1000Z-200208T1800Z/
Sequatchie-Bledsoe-Rhea-Meigs-McMinn-Northwest Monroe-Marion-
Hamilton-Bradley-West Polk-
Including the cities of Cagle, Dunlap, Cartwright, Lone Oak,
Old Cumberland, Palio, Melvine, Mount Crest, Pikeville, Brayton,
Dayton, Evensville, Old Washington, Grandview, Spring City,
Big Spring, Athens, Clear Water, Dentville, Etowah, Sweetwater,
Madisonville, Bullet Creek, South Pittsburg, Haletown (Guild),
Jasper, Martin Springs, Whitwell, Powells Crossroads, Monteagle,
Chattanooga, Cleveland, Tasso, Conasauga, Archville, Benton,
Parksville, and Reliance
941 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2020 /841 PM CST Fri Feb 7 2020/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ TO
1 PM EST /NOON CST/ SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected possibly mixed with sleet or rain at times.
  Total snow accumulations of 1/2 to one inch but up to 2 inches
  across the higher elevations. Snowfall mainly over grassy and
  elevated surfaces.

* WHERE...Southern Plateau and southeast Tennessee.

* WHEN...From 5 AM EST /4 AM CST/ to 1 PM EST /noon CST/
  Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Slippery road conditions are possible across the
  higher elevations and elevated surfaces, such as bridges and
  overpasses.

[TellicoWx]

14 minutes ago, dwagner88 said:

I like the way this sounds. I moved recently and my backyard fence is on the Georgia state line. It’s always interesting to see the difference in forecasts. FFC is far more liberal with wx advisories than MRX. 

Think you are in a good spot..with the way the last few winters have been 1" to 2" would be a big win sadly. With the corridor of lift being so narrow..any slight shift could make a big difference either direction. Not sold that any model currently has it right.

[TellicoWx]

Really hope the GFS is off its rocker for this upcoming week. It really wants to point the firehouse at the southern valley. Combine the 4"-5" being shown on the 0z op with the melting snowpack on the mountain peaks..the foothills and areas along creek/river banks would possibly be in trouble. Add in the drastic back and forth temp swings (freezing the saturated soil, then quickly thawing it on top of the rainfall) and mudslides are going to start being an issue as well.

[TellicoWx]

4z HRRR slightly shifted the precip NNW..wave entering MS now 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

How far N and NW will it get? Looks like Chatt is about to get a good burst

[Holston_River_Rambler]

mPing showing some reports of snow in Chattanooga and Dalton, GA

[Uncle Nasty]

How far N and NW will it get? Looks like Chatt is about to get a good burst

I just stepped outside and currently nothing reaching the ground. At first it looked like the grill cover had snow on it but it was frost. I didn't expect to see frost this morning with the cloud cover. It's currently 29* at our house. TWC app is showing 30* and a snow shower at my location but I can confirm nothing reaching the ground yet.

 

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[dwagner88]

Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said:

mPing showing some reports of snow in Chattanooga and Dalton, GA

Can confirm. Light snow and 30 degrees here. Just started. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

@Uncle Nasty probably won't be too long, I can see it on I 24 traffic cameras heading up the valley. Hard to tell, but almost looks like it is already sticking to the medians, 

[Uncle Nasty]

Can confirm. Light snow and 30 degrees here. Just started. 

Dwagner what is your location? I'm in Ooltewah about 1 mile from the exit on I75.

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[dwagner88]

1 minute ago, Uncle Nasty said:

Dwagner what is your location? I'm in Ooltewah about 1 mile from the exit on I75.

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On the TN side of the Georgia state line off Graysville rd. 

[dwagner88]

Moderate snow now. Already have a decent dusting. It is trying to coat my cul de sac. Definitely sticking to the concrete driveway. 

[Uncle Nasty]

I can confirm snow has started falling in Ooltewah. It's coming down light with a few renegade larger flakes mixing in. Maybe we can lucky and get our first white lawn since we moved here in 2016.

 

Edit to add: nice fat flakes now.

 

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[Ranger]

Moderate snow falling in Chatsworth, GA (just east of Dalton) and ground is covered.  Expecting 1-2 inches here.

[PowellVolz]

Man this is some heavy snow downtown


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[ottorec]

Yes. Just left Pete’s.....moderate large flakes....makes me think I’m in the 1970s wanting to get the sled out..cheers.

[PowellVolz]

Incredible that the mods are gonna bust bad on the under. Areas of Chattanooga are gonna easily see 5 inches maybe more. 1 inch reported in west Knox


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[jaxjagman]

14 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Don't mean to take away yalls winter talk in the East.But looking at the upcoming pattern seems like another potential robust KW might pass through just like the last one towards the middle of the month,maybe we can get another shot of winter if we don't drown.The MJO seriously looks like it's going to get stuck around   East of the IDL,and should go back into COD unlike what the GEFS is showing

Looks more active east of the IDL.The Euro even shows it getting more into the WP and even hints at it going into the WH after it goes back into the COD

[weathertree4u]

2 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Looks more active east of the IDL.The Euro even shows it getting more into the WP and even hints at it going into the WH after it goes back into the COD

Is going into the WH and COD conducive to winter weather here?

[PowellVolz]

I’m cursed when it comes to snow.


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[jaxjagman]

6 minutes ago, weathertree4u said:

Is going into the WH and COD conducive to winter weather here?

You'd rather have a defined signal outside the COD.Right now  to me id rather have the  Euro to be right,JMO

 

EDIT:Trouble typing this morning..lol

[Holston_River_Rambler]

To add to what Jax was saying, Euro this AM is aiming the RMM toward more favorable phases, but would like to see more consistency:

 

[John1122]

It virtually always gets cold 10-20 days after phase 7 (seeing that now) and that worked before. But it's probably too late in the year for most areas to wait that long so it not getting in 7 is good at least.  

[John1122]

Probably out of luck on winter for the next 10 or 15 days, but extremely wet conditions are likely to continue.  If you blend the GFS/Euro/GGem the entire forum likely sees 4-6+ inches of rain the next 10 days. 

Norris Lake went up 14 feet from the rain the other day. Another rise like that and roads are underwater again this year. Last year it got to 1030ft and low lying homes in southern Campbell co were basically on islands. 

[PowellVolz]

I really hope we get another shot before March. I’m not opposed to snow in March but by then I’m in spring mode. Lawn, landscaping and lotsa golf.


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[Carvers Gap]

Been up on the Plateau for a couple of days and am home now finally.  Rolled through right after the snow finished up - beautiful sight.  Haven't been able really dig into modeling much.  With two advisory level events for the window of Feb 5-10, bout all we could have asked for in a base warm pattern.  Very happy for our folks who have received snow this week.   Still a lot of uncertainty moving forward with Feb 14th having a cool or cold front.  Will continue to monitor the 14th timeframe for an outside chance.  Again, still not convinced modeling has the upcoming pattern nailed down.  Will try to post tomorrow.  But what a fun day following all of those posts by many who have waited patiently for snow for several years.   

[weathertree4u]

7 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Been up on the Plateau for a couple of days and am home now finally.  Rolled through right after the snow finished up - beautiful sight.  Haven't been able really dig into modeling much.  With two advisory level events for the window of Feb 5-10, bout all we could have asked for in a base warm pattern.  Very happy for our folks who have received snow this week.   Still a lot of uncertainty moving forward with Feb 14th having a cool or cold front.  Will continue to monitor the 14th timeframe for an outside chance.  Again, still not convinced modeling has the upcoming pattern nailed down.  Will try to post tomorrow.  But what a fun day following all of those posts by many who have waited patiently for snow for several years.   

Yea, got a little Thursday late night and Friday early morning. Been looking through some old pix and the last really good Winter I had north of Nashville were the two back-to-back Winters of 2009/2010 and 2010/2011 where we had several good snows; not saying that havent really had anything since then but those two years there was something almost every week. Keeping with that same theme, seems like about every ten years we have a really good Winter, previous to the two years mentioned, the Winter of 2002/2003 was really good. All of those instances were coming out of a solar min. Wonder if going forward for a couple of years we can at least expect a break in this pattern since we are slowing climbing out of a solar min....

[Holston_River_Rambler]

C'mon trough, swing east and dry us out:

All ensembles have been doing this for a  couple of days. Euro most insistent that the EPO is still bad, but even it is relenting on the PNA enough to hopefully dry us out. 

The base pattern has to change eventually anyway, right? If we flipped to this mess in early December, maybe we flip at the first of March? 

 

[weathertree4u]

8 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

C'mon trough, swing east and dry us out:

All ensembles have been doing this for a  couple of days. Euro most insistent that the EPO is still bad, but even it is relenting on the PNA enough to hopefully dry us out. 

The base pattern has to change eventually anyway, right? If we flipped to this mess in early December, maybe we flip at the first of March? 

 

At this point and I think allot of forum members would agree, having a good snow would be great but man do we need a break from this rain!