TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Perhaps an inch of snow on Sunday night for Central NY that melts by noon on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Nam is pretty nice for the tug and parts of the Adirondacks, probably just the NAM being the NAM.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Gfs had a decent amount of precip as well but it was more snow to rain with surface temps once again marginal..(imby) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Marginal surface temps? Color me shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 For all "intensive purposes" I am truly seeing the intents and purposes for the models to troll us. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 45 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: For all "intensive purposes" I am truly seeing the intents and purposes for the models to troll us. The GFS is king at trolling. The Euro is somewhat realistic sometimes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 49 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Marginal surface temps? Color me shocked. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Gfs and icon both look solid for the last wave, which I guess is the one we should be focusing on lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2020 Author Share Posted January 31, 2020 GFS stringing us along again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Walking a fine line on the euro day 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Euro also trended a little colder with the initial wave as it's mostly snow east of lake Ontario, not much in the way of precip.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Icon was pretty far inland as well, something we still have to worry about lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 It is largely expected that this will be an unsettled period across our forecast area...but unfortunately...there is too much uncertainty in the evolution of a longwave trough over the center of the country to pin down whether we will experience several rounds of mixed pcpn or significant accumulations of snow. The pronounced differences among the various medium range guidance packages are primarily based in the handling of the aforementioned trough as it makes its way across the Four Corners area. Without getting into too much detail...the forecast will come down to how many shortwaves will eject out of a possible closed mid level low and where the axis of a tight baroclinic zone will be found downstream across the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes. Even the main ensemble packages have significant differences...so its not worth scouring the individual deterministic models. As a result... confidence will be lower than normal through this period. Stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2020 Author Share Posted January 31, 2020 GEFS 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 6z gfs was different than it's 0z counterpart which is no surprise.. First wave is all snow albeit light.. Second wave is snow to mix/rain.. Third wave is a miss to the east.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2020 Author Share Posted January 31, 2020 We will find a way to miss all 3 waves. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 29 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: GEFS Number 18 with a side of fries please. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 31 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: GEFS Thats a lot of solid to big hits from GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2020 Author Share Posted January 31, 2020 Anyone got EPS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Only in 24 hr intervals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 The control run brings the initial wave right over us and the 2nd or 3rd wave (hard to tell) through NJ into eastern portions of sne.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 What an exciting time to be in the adirondacks. I'll be riding the hairy edge of some decent shots of precip. Hoping elevation keeps me in the game. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 49 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: We will find a way to miss all 3 waves. Yeah I'm getting that vibe a little lol First system to far west and 2nd/3rd to far east.. Eps and control have the system just off of CC, which is usually a little to far east for our liking.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Slight chance of at least 4" on Sunday for the eastern lake Ontario region into the Adirondacks. Small area of moderate probabilities.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 31, 2020 Author Share Posted January 31, 2020 Dacks look good to pick up 1-2' of snow next few weeks, higher amounts in higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 The first wave is looking colder and colder on the models of late.. Mostly some weak overrunning.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 16 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: The first wave is looking colder and colder on the models of late.. Mostly some weak overrunning.. Looks good for the last wave as well, fwiw.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Well the gfs sucks lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 First wave is weak crap, next 2 run inland, mix/rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 31, 2020 Share Posted January 31, 2020 Canadian is pretty ugly as well.. We miss out on the first wave and the next 2 take the exact same track, just west of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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