wolfie09 Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 It's that time of year 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 It's that time of year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Yay! March! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brentrich Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Yay! March! It won't happen, we all know how it turns out lol. I bet we will have cold March and first half of April before spring comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Nws has decent pops across the board for the middle-late portion of next week, not just for us west fans lol Wednesday Night Rain before 4am, then snow. Low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Thursday Snow. High near 34. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Thursday Night Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 18. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Friday Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 24. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Friday Night Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 13. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Saturday A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 21. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Actually pretty close. 850’s improving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 32 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Actually pretty close. 850’s improving Congrats Green Bay. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 That initial low on Wednesday is not helping matters lol The whole trough is to far west.. It's also hard to get snow with all the ULLs to our west.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 22, 2020 Share Posted February 22, 2020 Yeah, but if a vigorous secondary spins up in SE PA, we’d stand a chance. I’m not saying it’s gonna happen but it’s a fairly common Springtime occurrence. I’ll be watching for accumulation in Wyoming county at the very minimum if GFS solution 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Ukmet That's at 10-1.. This model likes to go mode.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Gfs is trying lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 A strong low pressure system is expected to move northwest of the area later in the week. This system will bring in much colder air and the potential for accumulating lake effect snow. At this time, the more notable accumulations Thursday into Friday appear to be east of the lakes, then shift southeast of the lakes later Friday into Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Woke up to a chilly 24 degrees in the mountains of Western Virginia. Colder morning here than Syracuse. Will be back to Upstate this evening. Good morning! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Lake effect potential looking good for Tug and hills south of BUF. Finally a longish duration cold/moist cyclonic flow, at least per modeling right now. That’s been impossible to get all winter as the cold shots have whiplashed through. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Forecast overnight low here was 21, I made it down to 11°..The last 3 nights the NWS has been off by 12°, 15° and 10° lol They don't know the climo here lol My overnight projected lows are usually only 1° colder than Fulton..Two nights ago I was at 5 and Fulton 27° lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 2 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Gfs is trying lol Weird track. It actually retrograde west once north of us. This woulda been a hell of a storm if it was 250 miles SE. Those retrograde jobs hold the moisture, allowing LES to really ramp up. East of the lakes still looking great 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Just now, rochesterdave said: Weird track. It actually retrograde west once north of us. This woulda been a hell of a storm if it was 250 miles SE. Those retrograde jobs hold the moisture, allowing LES to really ramp up. East of the lakes still looking great Weird indeed. It's the recurrent theme of this winter. Mean trough too far west. Earlier runs had the lead slp weakening but generally being progressive, allowing the secondary, or follow on wave, to develop further east. Now, it's a shite system where we have to rely on LES scraps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 I actually think the mean wind flow will be out of the WSW, which sucks for most of us including me lol I'll probably be the transient zone as the winds veer NW and possibly become mult-bands... Hopefully I'm wrong but probably not lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Just now, wolfie09 said: I actually think the mean wind flow will be out of the WSW, which sucks for most of us including me lol I'll probably be the transient zone as the winds veer NW and possibly become mult-bands... Hopefully I'm wrong but probably not lol Ever since Matt started making his way back from FL models have trended badly. Coincidence? I think not. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Kbgm Models have trended faster with the anticipated midweek system. This brings cold air advection in Wednesday night instead of waiting until Thursday, and also includes an opportunity for rain to change over to wet snow late Wednesday-early Thursday as the system lifts through and then out of the region, before pattern transitions to more of a lake effect regime for Thursday afternoon through Saturday. Details on this system itself continue to be sketchy with run-to-run timing and strength differences, and this will need to be worked out in coming days. Chances for a brief snow accumulation on the back side of the system Thursday morning will generally be higher for northern portions of our region, but cannot be ruled out further south as well especially at higher elevations. In the wake of the system, gusty cold west-southwesterly winds are anticipated Thursday afternoon, veering more westerly Thursday night-Friday; then west-northwest Friday night-Saturday. This occurs within broad cyclonic flow around an upper low slogging through southeastern Ontario to southern Quebec; vorticity lobes rotating around it could cause wind shifts/redirections of lake effect activity. Accumulating lake effect snow appears probable for parts of Central NY during the late Thursday through Saturday period, but locations and details will become better assessed as we get closer to that timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 NAM popping the secondary off the NJ coast. I have no idea what this thing does. Best case scenario for WNY is heavy burst of snow as secondary drives up the Hudson Valley. IDK how the Ukmet is seeing over a foot in Niagara County??? I guess enhanced stuff on a northerly flow? 1% chance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 39 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Ever since Matt started making his way back from FL models have trended badly. Coincidence? I think not. Called it. 55 degrees in Winchester, VA. I am bringing Spring with me. I don't know why I was given such power. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 I was at 10.6° at 630 am and now 44° at 1130 am.. Feels nice lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Canadian has the secondary the dominant low but it doesn't help us much with the synoptic precip. The clown map for the lake effect portion should be fun. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 9 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Canadian has the secondary the dominant low but it doesn't help us much with the synoptic precip. The clown map for the lake effect portion should be fun. Lol Disappointing again in aggregate. Looks like other than LES late next week, we will wrap up Feb with whatever snow totals we have now. Leaves us a 2 or 3 week window in March for something decent... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Canadian looks weird. This ones not baked yet. I wonder if there will be any clown ensembles (synoptic). There’s lots of possibilities with this weirdo set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 A man can dream right? Or pray? Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Ukmet is also a crusher with 14"+ at 10-1 and still going... Obviously not gonna get my hopes up lol Any change in track can alter the wind field.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Good luck figuring this out lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 23, 2020 Share Posted February 23, 2020 Near Harrisburg. 60 degrees. It was colder in Savannah, Georgia yesterday. Warm air continues to rule this season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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